Despite voter discontent, Ireland's election results in a pro-business continuity government.
- The incumbent center-right parties in Ireland are expected to win the election, despite widespread dissatisfaction with social issues, indicating continuity for the business community.
- According to Laurent Muzellec of Trinity Business School, Ireland remains "a good place to do business, open to global companies, and as pro-business as it has been for the last 30 or 40 years," as conveyed to CNBC.
- Despite a booming economy resulting from corporate tax receipts, the country still faces challenges such as a nationwide housing crisis.
The incumbent center-right parties in Ireland are expected to win the election, despite widespread dissatisfaction with social issues, indicating continuity for the business community.
Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil and Simon Harris of Fine Gael are expected to form a coalition with one or two smaller opposition parties to achieve a parliamentary majority of 88 in the 174-seat Dáil by midday Monday.
What happens to the role of taoiseach, the Irish leader, when Fianna Fáil becomes the bigger party, given that Harris currently holds the position? One possibility is a repeat of the rotating power-share arrangement the two parties previously brokered in 2020.
The Green party and Sinn Féin suffered losses in Friday's vote, with the Green party retaining only one seat out of 12 and Sinn Féin expected to equal Fine Gael's number of TDs but not able to begin coalition talks. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled out partnering with the left-wing party.
Analysts at investment firm Davy stated in a note that the result "deviates from the global trend of weaker incumbent election outcomes this year."
"The only surprise is that there was no surprise. The electorate has indicated that they want the same, as per the election results," Laurent Muzellec, dean of Dublin's Trinity Business School, stated in a phone interview with CNBC.
Despite the low turnout of 59% in the election, there is a growing frustration among the Irish population that has not been captured by Sinn Féin. This frustration is evident in the fact that Sinn Féin has not been able to capture this sense of frustration. However, talking to people, you have a different feeling than the result may indicate.
The housing crisis in Ireland, particularly in Dublin, has resulted in a rise in homelessness, according to Muzellec.
The nature of repeated coalition forming means it is uncertain which manifesto commitments related to increasing housing supply will be implemented in the future, according to Muzellec.
According to exit polls, only 27% of voters named Fine Gael's Harris as their preferred leader, compared to 35% for Fianna Fáil's Martin and 34% for Sinn Féin head Mary Lou McDonald.
Another challenge for the country is ageing infrastructure, which the government plans to address with the unexpected 13-billion-euro ($13.7 billion) windfall it received earlier this year in back taxes from tech giant.
Ireland's budget surplus for the year was increased due to substantial corporate tax receipts from multinationals such as Apple, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft, which were attracted to the country's low corporate tax rate and established European headquarters there.
Business benefit
Whether the country faces an economic threat from Donald Trump's re-election in the U.S. has been questioned by economists, as he threatens to implement sweeping universal tariffs and adopt a protectionist, "America first" stance.
According to economists Andrew Kenningham and Jack Allen-Reynolds of Capital Economics, Ireland is the most vulnerable among all euro zone members to a loss of U.S. trade.
The research group states that while the U.S. accounts for only 1.5% of euro zone economic activity and 1.7% in Germany, it represents 7% in Ireland, with the latter country sending a disproportionate share of its exports to the U.S.
If U.S. corporate tax cuts convince U.S.-based multinationals to shift their operations back from Ireland to the US, the economy may also be affected. However, the economists are optimistic about Ireland's economic prospects due to its other strengths.
According to Laurent Muzellec of Trinity Business School, the latest election result indicates that there is no substantial political movement in Ireland advocating for a protectionist shift from its open economy.
He stated that the place is still a good spot for business, remains open to international corporations, and has maintained its pro-business stance for the past 30 to 40 years.
The Trump presidency may influence companies' decisions on where to establish manufacturing facilities, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry, but there is unlikely to be a significant exodus, Muzellec stated.
""Initially, big companies were in Ireland for tax reasons, but now they have thousands of employees. Many of these jobs are in sales and customer service for EMEA, so they need to remain in Europe. If they leave Ireland, where would they go? The U.K. is no longer part of the European Union, France is politically unstable, and their other options are limited," he said."
Politics
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