Aspiring members of the BRICS bloc are not deterred by Trump's tariff threat.

• David Lubin, senior research fellow at Chatham House, suggests that China could alleviate any potential trade tensions between the US and BRICS members by intervening.
• The possibility of the BRICS alliance dethroning the U.S. dollar as the world's most widely used trade currency is uncertain, given Trump's tariff threat is contingent on this happening.
• Duncan Wrigley of Pantheon Macroeconomics believes that the absence of a unified strategy and action from BRICS members casts doubt on whether they will be perceived as a threat to the U.S.

If BRICS nations continue to undermine the U.S. dollar, President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on them, but this won't stop their expansion, analysts say.

Last Monday, Brazil admitted Indonesia into the bloc as a member.

The Biden administration has been dismissive of the BRICS coalition, with National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby stating that the US does not view it as a threat. However, sentiment could shift once Trump enters the White House later this month, as early indications suggest he may impose tariffs on alliance members if they undermine the US dollar.

The Trump administration's treatment of BRICS as an entity is a significant policy shift, according to Mihaela Papas, director of research at the MIT Center for International Studies, as she stated in an email to CNBC.

China will ease the tariff pain

The BRICS, founded in 2009 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and later joined by South Africa in 2010, aimed to challenge Western influence on the global stage.

The 16th annual summit of the alliance in Kazan saw Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates officially join the group. According to Russian officials and the official paper of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee, more than 30 countries have expressed interest in joining the coalition in 2024. However, CNBC could not independently verify this estimate.

According to Duncan Wrigley, chief China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, the size of the bloc makes it increasingly unlikely that the U.S. will apply punitive 100% tariffs on BRICS countries. Doing so would risk steering nations neutral in the U.S.-China rivalry toward Beijing and interfere with U.S. interests, Wrigley told CNBC by email.

David Lubin, senior research fellow at Chatham House, suggests that the world's second-largest economy could potentially ease the pain of any potential U.S. trade measures against BRICS members.

"Establishing China as an alternative pillar of global order is a critically important objective for Beijing, and it can't be achieved without the support of the developing world, Lubin stated in emailed comments. Given that over 120 countries consider China their primary trading partner, this shouldn't be too challenging."

Beijing has implemented a zero-tariff policy for least developed countries with diplomatic ties, effective from December last year, which is an extension of similar measures for least developed African countries.

Dollar is king

The possibility of the BRICS alliance dethroning the U.S. dollar as the world's most widely used trade currency is uncertain, given Trump's tariff threat is contingent on this happening.

The Guardian reports that in the Kazan talks, Vladimir Putin reiterated his view that the use of the dollar as a "weapon" and a "big mistake," as Russia continues to push for de-dollarization to avoid the SWIFT network and U.S sanctions.

One of the group's options to topple the dollar was to create a unified BRICS currency, a proposal spearheaded by Brazil, which has yet to gain traction.

Another option was to establish multi-currency trade, which is already occurring among some members: some Chinese and Russian trade is being conducted through the yuan and ruble. Countries have also pledged to enhance their trading through local currencies and have expressed support for the concept of an autonomous cross-border payment infrastructure.

According to Lubin of Chatham House, the Chinese currency is less useful internationally compared to the dollar, as most financial markets are priced in greenbacks.

Just a 'talking shop'

The absence of a unified strategy and action from BRICS members casts uncertainty on whether they will be perceived as a threat to the U.S., according to Pantheon Macroeconomics' Wrigley, who characterizes the alliance as merely a "talking shop."

The 2024 Kazan summit resulted in "nothing really concrete," according to Cecilia Malmström, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who stated that the bloc is still too loose and unorganized to create any substantive change.

By targeting China, the U.S. may inadvertently protect BRICS members and partner countries from a trade war.

Despite Beijing's significant position in the group, other member nations are cautious about its dominance and potential trade imbalances, according to MIT's Papas.

Despite China's efforts to utilize its position, internal caution among members may still hinder progress.

Gustavo Medeiros, head of research at Ashmore Group, stated via email to CNBC that many BRICS members continue to maintain friendly relations with the U.S. as a "crucial trade partner."

According to Medeiros, there is no evidence to suggest that members of the bloc would face economic or geopolitical risks if a trade war were to occur between the U.S. and China.