Younger Americans now view Harris as more competent in handling the economy than Trump, according to a CNBC/Generation Lab survey.

Younger Americans now view Harris as more competent in handling the economy than Trump, according to a CNBC/Generation Lab survey.
Younger Americans now view Harris as more competent in handling the economy than Trump, according to a CNBC/Generation Lab survey.
  • A new CNBC Generation Lab survey of younger Americans shows that Vice President Kamala Harris has closed the gap with Donald Trump on who would handle the economy better, according to the survey.
  • In May, President Joe Biden was leading Donald Trump by 2 points, but now Harris leads Trump by 12 points, a 10-point increase.
  • A majority of young Americans believe the economy is moving in the wrong direction, yet they do not hold Harris responsible for this.

A recent survey from CNBC and Generation Lab shows that younger Americans do not hold Vice President Kamala Harris accountable for the perceived worsening U.S. economy under the Biden-Harris administration.

A recent survey of Americans aged 18 to 34 found that 69% of them believe the economy is deteriorating under President Joe Biden, who dropped out of the race in July.

They believe that Harris is the most suitable candidate to enhance the economy, rather than the Republican nominee and ex-President Donald Trump.

According to poll respondents, 41% considered Harris the top candidate for the economy, while 40% opted for Trump and 19% believed the economy would thrive under someone else, such as third party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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Since May's Youth & Money Survey, there has been a seven-point shift in Democrats' favor on the economy. In May, only 34% of respondents believed Biden, the likely Democratic nominee, was the best candidate to boost the economy, with 40% choosing Trump and 25% saying Kennedy.

The latest poll shows that among younger Americans, Harris has a 12-point lead over Trump, with 46% supporting her and 34% supporting Trump, while 21% would vote for either Kennedy or another candidate.

In the same survey conducted three months ago, Trump and Biden were found to be evenly matched, with 36% support for Biden and 35% for Trump, while 29% of respondents indicated they would vote for Kennedy.

The 10% increase in support for Harris among younger Americans today is significant due to the economy's influence on their voting decisions.

The CNBC survey data shows that "economy and cost of living" was the most important issue for respondents when deciding on who to vote for, with 66% citing it as one of their top three. "Access to abortion and reproductive rights" came in second with 34%, while "gun violence/control" was third with 26%.

Yet these results also contain warning signs for Harris and the Democratic party.

In order to secure the presidency, Harris must improve her performance among young voters in November beyond her current 12-point advantage in a CNBC and Generation Lab survey.

'Bidenomics' may not be a drag on Harris

The upcoming election, which is less than 90 days away on Nov. 5, could be significantly impacted by the new results, as Biden's decision to withdraw from the race disrupted the contest.

One of the biggest uncertainties for both parties is whether Americans will transfer their longstanding dissatisfaction with Biden, resulting from years of high inflation and high interest rates, directly onto Harris.

Despite the political drag of "Bidenomics," Harris has not been negatively impacted among younger people, according to these findings.

In 2020, Biden received 59% of the vote among 18-29 year olds, while Trump received 35%, resulting in a 24-point margin for Biden.

This year, Kennedy's presence on the ballot in certain states could potentially reduce Harris's overall vote count among young people, who have traditionally been a key voting bloc for Democratic candidates.

The age group of 18 to 34 years old accounts for approximately 25% of the total US population, which is about 76 million individuals, according to census data. In the 2020 presidential election, only 57% of this age group voted.

While 77% of respondents in this survey said they will definitely or probably vote, historical data shows that the number of people who actually vote is typically lower than those who plan to vote.

Economy is still a wild card

The economy's performance during the election could either benefit or harm Harris.

The poll was conducted between July 22 and July 29, prior to the release of the latest jobs report, which caused concerns about an economic recession.

The market selloff of the past week was partly due to fears arising from the rocky jobs report, which was taken beforehand.

Despite polls that survey all adults, not just young people, showing Trump maintaining his lead in terms of economic improvement trust, he still holds an advantage.

If there are any more negative economic developments before November, voters may shift their support back to Trump's familiar economic plan, as Harris has not yet presented a unique economic agenda separate from Biden's.

A survey was conducted on 1,043 adults aged 18 to 34, with a margin of error of 3.0%.

by Jason Gewirtz

Politics