Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' new political leader, is viewed as more radical and less inclined to make concessions.

• Ismail Haniyeh's assassination led to the appointment of Yahya Sinwar as the leader of Hamas' political wing.
• The most powerful person in the organization is Sinwar, a man known for his ruthlessness and is widely seen as having masterminded the Oct. 7 attack.
• The death of Haniyeh has led to a more hardline leader for Hamas, potentially hindering the possibility of a cease-fire.

On Tuesday, Hamas named Yahya Sinwar as the new head of its political wing after the death of its previous political chief, Ismail Haniyeh.

Sinwar, known for his ruthlessness and widely seen as the mastermind behind the Oct. 7 attack, is now the most powerful person in the organization and its face in international diplomacy.

"Hamas's most extreme faction has officially taken power after carrying out the October 7 attack, according to geopolitical analyst Michael Horowitz, head of intel at risk management firm Le Beck International," X reported.

The killing of Haniyeh in Iran on July 31 has caused tension in the Middle East, with Iran and Hamas accusing Israel of the crime. Israel has not responded, while Iran has vowed to retaliate against the Jewish state.

The death of Haniyeh has led to a more extreme leader for Hamas, potentially putting an end to ceasefire talks and increasing the likelihood of a war with Israel.

Haniyeh, a Hamas negotiator based in Qatar, has been described as more pragmatic and supportive of a deal, while Sinwar, Hamas' leader based in Gaza, has often stalled or cut off communications during the cease-fire talks with Israel. Despite months of negotiations, there has been no success.

Victor Tricaud, a senior analyst at consulting firm Control Risks, stated that Sinwar's nomination for Hamas' top job, despite being based in Gaza, signals a significant hardening of the movement's stance, particularly with regard to cease-fire talks.

The Palestinian leader had a significant say in negotiations with Israel, but now, without Ismail Haniyeh's pragmatic voice, Sinwar's maximalist views will be the only voice heard.

The analyst predicts that the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh will not alter the dynamics of the conflict in Gaza, as Israel's top priority remains to kill him. However, it will negatively impact efforts to achieve a lasting ceasefire and regional de-escalation, leading to heightened instability in the region for several more months.

A lifetime of fighting

Sinwar, a 61-year-old man, was born in a refugee camp in Gaza and spent over two decades in Israeli prisons. He was given a life sentence in 1989 for orchestrating the murder of two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians, whom he believed were collaborators. Prior to this, he had earned a reputation as "the Butcher of Khan Yunis" due to his relentless pursuit of Palestinians he suspected were working with Israel.

In 2011, he was released early in a highly controversial prisoner swap that involved more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners being exchanged for one Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, who had been abducted by Hamas five years prior.

In 2017, Sinwar, who had earlier stated in interviews that he utilized his time in prison to improve his Hebrew language skills and comprehend the psychology of his Israeli captors, was elected as the leader of Hamas. In 2015, he was labeled a terrorist by the U.S. government.

The International Criminal Court filed arrest warrant applications for Sinwar and Haniyeh for war crimes and crimes against humanity, while also filing similar applications for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant.

The merging of Hamas' political and military wings following Sinwar's promotion to its highest position poses a challenge to any potential "day after" plans in Gaza, as Israel's government has not presented a plan.

Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst, stated in an emailed note that the selection will likely "invalidate Hamas's legitimacy on the international stage."

"The separation of a military and political branch has given Hamas the opportunity to negotiate a better hostage settlement with Israel and secure its future in a future Palestinian government," he said. "This move would challenge that approach."

Gaza's intricate network of tunnels is believed to be the hiding place of Sinwar, a top target of Israel's military, who has survived assassination attempts over the years.

Ghanem Nuseibeh stated that Hamas' appointment of Sinwar as its leader is a risky move, as the group is essentially betting on an invisible leader.

""Good luck negotiating with the most extreme part of Hamas who is also invisible," Nuseibeh, chairman of the London-based Muslims Against Antisemitism and a regional commentator, said."