Xi and Putin's 'redistribution of power in the world' ambitions are not concealed.

Xi and Putin's 'redistribution of power in the world' ambitions are not concealed.
Xi and Putin's 'redistribution of power in the world' ambitions are not concealed.

This is big.

The two leading authoritarians of our time have formed an unprecedented common cause, possibly even a de facto security alliance, with the goal of reshaping the world order in their image.

The 38th personal meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on Friday, which took place just hours before the Winter Olympics and with over 100,000 Russian troops threatening Ukrainian independence and sovereignty, was crucial for the world to recognize its significance.

This weekend, they made public their bold, 5,300-word joint statement in English, stating that "a trend has emerged towards redistribution of power in the world" - specifically towards them and away from the U.S. and its democratic partners and allies.

Russia and China are cooperating more closely than ever before, with Beijing joining Moscow in opposing NATO enlargement and embracing Putin's vision for a new European security order. In return, Russia has opposed the new Australia-U.S.-U.K. security agreement, endorsed China's One Child Policy, embraced the Russia-India-China cooperation format, and blessed China's role in the Arctic.

Russia and China aren't labeling their partnership as a NATO-style alliance, but they're not hesitant to express its objectives.

Russia and China have reaffirmed that their new inter-state relations are superior to the political and military alliance of the Cold War era. Their friendship has no limits, and there are no "forbidden" areas of cooperation. The strengthening of bilateral cooperation is not aimed against third countries and is not affected by the changing international environment or circumstantial changes in third countries.

An official from the Biden administration views a potential silver lining in the absence of a direct reference to Ukraine in the statement, which may indicate China's discomfort with the possibility of invasion. However, Xi has not spoken out to discourage Putin's escalation.

The two sides are redefining democracy to justify their repressive systems that restrict freedom of expression, suppress opposition, and support authoritarian regimes.

Evidence suggests that China and Russia are attempting to seize the moral high ground from electoral democracies through the use of Orwellian language.

According to the statement, Russia and China, as world powers with a rich cultural and historical heritage, have long-standing traditions of democracy that are based on thousands of years of experience in development, broad popular support, and a consideration of the needs and interests of citizens.

The decision of whether a country is democratic lies solely with its people. On the other hand, there are warnings against using the promotion of democracy and human rights to pressure other nations.

The broad areas the agreement embraces are head-spinning.

The Belt and Road Initiative and Putin's Eurasian Economic Union agreed to cooperate more closely, with a focus on developing the Arctic, deepening coordination in multilateral institutions, and addressing climate change.

In June 2019, I wrote that the deepening strategic alignment between China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin, despite long-time democratic allies across the Atlantic growing more distant, could potentially be the most profound geopolitical shift of the post-Cold War years.

The biggest mistake Western strategists have made since then has been to treat the Chinese and Russian challenges to the post-Cold War international order as separate and unrelated. The Biden administration even hoped to put the Russia issue on hold while focusing on the more pressing and long-term China challenge.

Despite their longstanding animosity and significant differences, the two countries have never been closer than they are now. Since World War II, the leading authoritarians of their time have been strategically aligned and personally close, with both focused on their historic legacies.

Putin could strengthen his relationship with China to manage any new sanctions through energy agreements and financial arrangements.

On Friday, China and Russia announced new oil and gas deals worth an estimated $117.5 billion. Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, and CNPC, China's state company, reached an agreement for Rosneft to supply 100 million tons of crude through Kazakhstan to CNPC over the next 10 years. Additionally, Gazprom agreed to ship China 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year through a new pipeline.

The economic numbers are undeniable: last year, trade between the two countries reached a record $147 billion, making China Russia's largest trading partner. Western intelligence sources believe that the greatest danger for Ukraine will occur after February 20th, the last day of the Olympics, which coincides with the end of the "Allied Resolve" military exercises in Belarus. This is also the time when the Ukrainian ground and rivers are sufficiently frozen to allow for the most effective movement of heavy military equipment.

The joint statement with Putin regarding Ukraine highlights a significant shift in global relations, necessitating more creative, collaborative, and long-term thinking among the U.S. and its partners.

The increasing proximity between Russia and China has amplified their respective strengths, as their leaders perceive a favorable moment, with democracies declining, the U.S. politically fragmented, and emerging technologies enhancing authoritarian leaders' capacity to monitor and regulate their populations.

The joint statement of Russia and China, consisting of 5,300 words, presents a united front against the U.S. However, their opposition to the U.S. is based on their hypocritical use of concepts that define U.S. foreign policy, such as democracy, human rights, and economic development. Despite their rhetoric, their actions are inconsistent with these concepts.

If democracies do not push back more aggressively, expect China and Russia to continue their push forward. It is a grave error to view the Ukraine crisis in isolation, given the context provided by Xi and Putin.

—Frederick Kempe is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council.

by Frederick Kempe

politics