Who wins the election, Harris or Trump, does it affect China's interests?
- Experts predict that Trump may impose up to 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and a 10%-20% blanket tariff on all other imports, while Harris is likely to adhere to Biden's existing tariff policy.
- In the debate, Harris did not provide specifics on her China policy, but emphasized the importance of ensuring the United States wins the competition for the 21st century.
According to Carlos Casanova, senior economist at Swiss private bank UBP, regardless of who wins the election in November, U.S. trade ties with China will remain tense.
Experts, including Casanova, agree that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will maintain a tough stance on China.
Experts predict that Trump may impose up to 100% tariffs on Chinese goods and a 10%-20% blanket tariff on all other imports, while Harris is likely to adhere to Biden's existing tariff policy.
The likelihood of a Trump victory is high, and it is predicted that this will increase trade and economic tensions between the U.S. and China, leading to a greater decoupling of their economies.
The possibility of stronger tariffs by Harris cannot be ruled out, as Biden has retained Trump's tariffs and added more. In May, the U.S. announced stiff duties on about $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, solar cells, lithium batteries, steel, and aluminum.
In the debate, Harris did not provide specifics on her China policy, but emphasized the importance of ensuring the United States wins the competition for the 21st century.
Harris emphasized the importance of concentrating on the specifics of what is needed, building connections with our allies, prioritizing investments in American-based technology to ensure victory in the race for A.I. and quantum computing.
"Casanova stated on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" that ongoing trade tensions with both the U.S. and Europe are likely to persist. In the U.S., there is broad support for taking a tougher stance against China, regardless of who wins the election."
In May, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned about Chinese overcapacity issues, stating that it poses a threat to American and European firms, as well as the industrial development of emerging market countries.
In April, Yellen held talks with Chinese officials about overcapacity and market-oriented reforms, stating in her prepared remarks that "A prosperous economic partnership demands a level playing field for businesses and workers in both nations."
Beijing is facing charges of dumping goods and heavily subsidizing industries, which has led to tariffs on Chinese exports from several countries, including the US and European nations.
After the debate, Marko Papic, chief strategist of BCA Research stated that "we didn't gain clarity on anything" and added that "the market was taken aback by her [Harris'] performance to some extent. However, it's not enough to prompt us as investors to adjust our political outlook significantly."
—CNBC's Dylan Butts contributed to this report.
Politics
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