While Trump 2.0 may take a more aggressive stance on China trade, economists predict that Harris will maintain a tough approach.

• Trump's priority during his first term was to establish trade with China, and he is prepared to intensify his efforts if he is re-elected.
• If he wins the presidency in November, Trump is predicted to intensify the trade conflict and speed up the process of disengagement.
• Kamala Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration's targeted approach to trade policy.

Experts predict that if former President Donald Trump is reelected, he will intensify his trade war and economic decoupling policies.

Although Joe Biden prioritized strategic competition with China in his economic policy, economists and trade experts anticipate that Trump will continue to reduce and destabilize trade ties between the two largest global economies.

The likelihood of a Trump victory is high, and it is predicted that this will increase trade and economic tensions between the U.S. and China, leading to a greater decoupling of their economies.

It is predicted that Trump will run against Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming election, as Biden has stepped back from the race and endorsed her. Experts, including Prasad, believe that Harris' approach to China will be similar to Biden's.

Prasad, former head of the International Monetary Fund's China and financial studies divisions, explained that while Trump and Biden both adopted a protectionist stance, their approaches and methods diverged significantly.

Biden has focused more on restricting China's access to technology transfers and computer chips while keeping tariffs in place and increasing them on certain imports, as opposed to Trump relying solely on tariffs to keep out imports from China.

'Tariff man'

The most significant departure from Biden-era trade policy by Trump would likely be the imposition of tariffs on China.

During his first term, the "tariff man" ignited a trade war with Beijing by imposing duties on $250 billion of Chinese imports, despite being warned that the tariffs would increase prices and harm consumers.

In 2020, Biden maintained Trump's tariffs and added his own, imposing new duties on $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, solar cells, lithium batteries, steel, and aluminum.

CNBC reported that experts predict that Harris will mostly maintain Biden's tariff strategy. In contrast, Trump has already suggested raising Chinese import taxes by at least 60%.

Stephen Weymouth, a professor of international political economy at Georgetown University, stated that he is uncertain if Trump will pursue extreme measures but believes he will increase tariffs during a second term.

Trump's decision to raise tariffs in a second term would be equivalent to using the nuclear option in international economic conflict, according to economist Stephen Roach.

The tariffs could lead to another trade war, resulting in a significant economic cost for both countries, according to William Reinsch, Scholl chair in international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

According to Reinsch, there's little chance that forcing Beijing into negotiating a more favorable trade deal will lead to a full decoupling.

In 2019, the Trump administration and China reached a "phase one trade deal," but the agreement's terms were not fully implemented, and no subsequent phases were ever realized.

Trump's choice of JD Vance as his running mate indicates his commitment to his tariff policies, as Vance has been a vocal proponent of tariffs on China, viewing it as the greatest threat to the US.

As a Georgetown professor of strategy and economics, Arthur Dong stated that if he were a China policy maker, this selection would make him feel uneasy.

Tech war

The Biden-Harris administration's key policies aimed to restrict China's technology transfers and encourage the growth of high-tech industries and supply chains in the U.S.

The Trump administration had enacted some similar controls.

The Biden administration has introduced guidelines restricting American investment in Chinese companies working on sensitive technology, due to national security concerns.

The CHIPS and Science Act, signed by the Biden administration in August 2022, allocated nearly $53 billion to support domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research, aiming to enhance U.S. competitiveness with China.

The CHIPS Act and export controls were passed with bipartisan support in Washington, and therefore, these policies are likely to remain a priority regardless of the outcome in November.

Miller predicted that the U.S. will tighten restrictions, regardless of the election outcome.

Diplomacy

The managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, Rorry Daniels, stated that a second term for Trump would significantly affect U.S. diplomacy and dialogue with Beijing beyond just trade issues.

During the Trump administration, the number of channels for discussing policy issues between the two countries decreased significantly. In contrast, the Biden administration has placed a greater emphasis on diplomatic engagement efforts.

The current administration has also sought to enhance cooperation with "like-minded partners" such as Japan and the Netherlands in imposing semiconductor restrictions.

Nick Marro, lead analyst for global trade with Economist Intelligence Unit, stated that his trade policy actions have been more effective due to the multilateral approach, which has helped minimize blowback. He expects future Democratic administrations to maintain this approach.

He said that Trump prefers a "go-it-alone" approach, which enables a quicker implementation of U.S. measures against China.

Beijing is not enthusiastic about either the Biden-Harris administration's "more measured and cautious" approach to China trade and diplomacy, according to Marro.

"Despite which party occupies the White House, US-China relations will continue on a collision course over the next ten years."

— CNBC's Zenith Wong contributed to this report