Wall Street firm says clients who met with ex-trade chief urged Trump to act quickly on tariffs.

Wall Street firm says clients who met with ex-trade chief urged Trump to act quickly on tariffs.
Wall Street firm says clients who met with ex-trade chief urged Trump to act quickly on tariffs.
  • According to policy analysts at Piper Sandler, former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is reportedly telling Wall Street money managers that if the Republican presidential nominee is reelected, he could begin implementing his comprehensive tariff proposals promptly after taking office.
  • Trump asserts that his broad tariffs will generate sufficient revenue to finance various tax reductions and initiatives.
  • Lighthizer is viewed as a top contender for several key positions in a potential second Trump administration.

Piper Sandler's policy analysts claim that if Donald Trump is reelected as the Republican presidential nominee, he may swiftly implement his proposed tariffs after taking office, as advised by his longtime trade adviser, according to reports.

According to a note by three research analysts at an investment bank on Friday, they have received information from several clients that Trump's former US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, has been meeting with investor groups and stating that Trump may announce 60% Chinese tariffs and 10% across-the-board tariffs shortly after taking office.

Lighthizer has been meeting with investors, but Trump campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that no policy should be considered official until it is directly communicated by President Trump.

Lighthizer has spoken with various groups, but it is unclear which ones. Piper Sandler analysts did not respond to a request from CNBC for more information. However, clients of the firm are likely large asset management firms that pay for its stock and economic research.

According to Inside U.S. Trade, Trump's presidential campaign is receiving economic advice from Lighthizer.

Lighthizer, a key figure in shaping Trump's first-term trade policies, is being viewed as a top contender for several senior positions in a potential Trump Cabinet, including commerce and treasury secretary.

Currently, he serves as the chair of the Center for American Trade at the Washington think tank, America First Policy Institute, which is aligned with the Trump administration. AFPI did not respond to a request for comment. Additionally, Lighthizer is a director of Trump Media, a publicly traded social media company that is majority owned by the former president.

Lighthizer's reported conversations and his apparent influence with Trump highlight the significance of tariffs in achieving Trump's economic vision.

Trump's broad tariff plans will increase prices, decrease GDP, and harm employment in significant industries, as cautioned by many economists and tax experts.

Kamala Harris has frequently pointed out that, according to a progressive organization's assessment, Trump's tariffs would amount to approximately $4,000 in added taxes for the typical American family.

Trump's tariff proposals should be seen in conjunction with his broader plans, such as reducing regulations, increasing U.S. oil drilling, and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, according to the Trump campaign.

The Republican National Committee spokeswoman, Anna Kelly, pointed out that both Harris and President Biden have kept or increased some of the tariffs established during Trump's first term.

Kelly stated on CNBC that President Trump will prioritize American jobs, control inflation, and increase wages by reducing taxes, regulations, and releasing American energy, which is why Harris has always opposed tariffs.

'Flood the zone'

Lighthizer's information was relayed by Piper Sandler analysts in Friday's note, who advised investors to take Trump's promises to increase tariffs seriously.

"The tariffs are expected to be implemented more quickly in a second Trump term than in the first," they wrote.

Trump has the determination and the means to fulfill his pledge to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.

It is possible that Trump may attempt to impose a 10% tariff through force, despite the potential legal challenges to his authority to do so.

If they wrote, Trump could "flood the zone" with even more targeted tariffs.

The narrower tariffs could target countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S. or specific industries, such as the auto industry, where Trump has promised to safeguard American businesses.

Trump would leverage the threat of higher tariffs to win concessions on unrelated issues, according to the analysts.

Deterrent or cash cow?

Trump's affinity for tariffs is widely known. He has touted them as a solution to economic problems and a means of restructuring the US economy in a protectionist manner.

During a September town hall in Warren, Michigan, the former president stated that tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented.

He claims that his tariff plans will generate sufficient revenue to fund substantial tax reductions, without necessitating any concessions or reductions to expensive government programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

Trump has pledged to employ tariffs as a means to discourage foreign competition and secure geopolitical advantage over other countries.

Trump has consistently advocated for a 10% universal tariff on foreign imports and has suggested increasing it to 20%.

He has proposed a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports and indicated that he might advocate for higher tariffs in certain situations.

In a speech at the Detroit Economic Club, Trump criticized China for constructing factories in Mexico to manufacture cars intended for the US market.

Trump stated that he would impose any necessary tariffs to halt that effort.

"He stated that the plants they're constructing won't sell any cars into the United States."

He has suggested employing tariffs as a component of a carrot-and-stick strategy to stimulate domestic production.

"If you don't produce your product in the United States, you will be subject to a tax or tariff when you export it, resulting in billions of dollars being added to our treasury, which will be used to benefit American citizens."

During a June meeting with Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill, Trump proposed replacing the federal income tax with revenues from tariffs.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics stated that it is impossible for tariffs to replace income taxes entirely and warned that implementing such a plan would cause economic harm.

Trump claims that his tariffs will not increase consumer prices, which he accuses Biden and Harris of causing.

"Trump stated during the Sept. 10 presidential debate that they would not increase their prices. Instead, he pointed out that China and other countries that have been taking advantage of the US for years would be the ones with higher prices."

by Kevin Breuninger

Politics