Voters in Indonesia cast their ballots to determine Jokowi's replacement as president.

Voters in Indonesia cast their ballots to determine Jokowi's replacement as president.
Voters in Indonesia cast their ballots to determine Jokowi's replacement as president.
  • According to polls, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, 72, is currently leading the race for the highest political office in Indonesia, which could be his final attempt at achieving this goal.
  • Joko Widodo, commonly known as Jokowi, will not seek re-election after serving the maximum two five-year terms as President of Indonesia.
  • Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi's 36-year-old eldest son and the current mayor of Surakarta or Solo, is Prabowo's running mate for president despite being under 40 and not having held a national office.
Presidential candidate and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, vice presidential candidate Muhaimin Iskandar, presidential candidate and Indonesia's Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, vice presidential candidate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, presidential candidate and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo and vice presidential candidate Mahfud MD (from left to right) react on the stage during the last presidential election debate at the Jakarta Convention Center in Jakarta on February 4, 2024.
Presidential candidate and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, vice presidential candidate Muhaimin Iskandar, presidential candidate and Indonesia’s Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, vice presidential candidate Gibran Rakabuming Raka, presidential candidate and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo and vice presidential candidate Mahfud MD (from left to right) react on the stage during the last presidential election debate at the Jakarta Convention Center in Jakarta on February 4, 2024. (Yasuyoshi Chiba | AFP | Getty Images)

On Wednesday, more than 200 million voters in Indonesia will visit over 800,000 polling stations to choose President Joko Widodo's successor, as well as elect new members of the national House of Representatives and local legislators.

Prabowo Subianto, 72, is currently leading in the polls for the upcoming presidential election in Indonesia, which could be his final attempt to attain the highest political office in the world's most populous Muslim country. Jokowi, also known as Widodo, defeated Prabowo in the previous two presidential elections.

The upcoming elections in Indonesia may have a significant impact on the country's democracy and its goal of becoming a developed economy by 2045. Additionally, it is uncertain whether the new president will halt the relocation of the national capital from Jakarta to Nusantara or impede Jokowi's plans to transform Indonesia into a global center for battery manufacturing.

Richard Borsuk, an adjunct senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University's Rajaratnam School of International Studies, stated on CNBC "Squawk Box Asia" last week that although it is Prabowo's election to lose, it doesn't mean he will win this fast.

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Prabowo, nominated by his Gerindra Party, received more than 50% of the vote in recent opinion polls, surpassing his two opponents.

In order to win outright, a pair must receive more than 50% of the national vote and at least 20% of ballots cast in more than half of Indonesia's 38 provinces on Wednesday. If no pair achieves this, Indonesians will have a runoff in June between the top two performing pairings.

In six hours, voters can choose their preferred presidential and vice presidential pairing, as well as national, provincial, and regency legislators and a regional senator for the national parliament.

Polling stations will open at 7 a.m. and close at 1 p.m. local time on Wednesday across Indonesia's three time zones. While preliminary results may be available within the day, official results may not be available until up to a month later.

Indonesia polls: There will be much continuity between some government personnel, says advisory firm

Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta, is running for president with the support of three parties, including the secular Nasdem Party and the conservative Islamic Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Muhaimin Iskandar, also known as Cak Imin, is his vice-presidential running mate and head of the National Awakening Party (PKB).

Ganjar Pranowo, the former governor of Central Java, was chosen by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) as its presidential candidate, with Mohammad Mahfud Mahmodin serving as his vice-presidential running mate.

In Indonesia, only coalitions or individual political parties with at least 20% of the seats in the House of Representatives or a quarter of the popular vote from the previous House of Representatives election may propose presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairings.

Prabowo’s military past

Jokowi will not seek re-election after serving two five-year terms. His eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who is the current mayor of Surakarta or Solo, will be Prabowo's running mate. Gibran, 36, was added to the ticket after laws were amended to allow candidates below 40 years old to run for president or vice president if they have held regional office.

According to Borsuk from NTU's RSIS, the theme of Prabowo's camp is continuity, but it is difficult to believe that he won't want to make his own mark. Prabowo has been running for president for a long time and comes from a military background.

In 1998, Prabowo, a former Indonesian special forces commander, was dishonorably discharged from the military due to allegations that his troops captured and tortured democracy activists who opposed the dictatorship of his father-in-law, President Suharto, ahead of riots that led to democratic reforms in Indonesia.

This picture taken on January 10, 2024 shows a man recording a campaign video for social media to be used by Ukon Furkon Sukanda, a legislative candidate of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), in Tangerang, Banten province.

Prabowo, who was accused of leading a massacre of hundreds in East Timor in 1983, has been rebranded as a "cute" grandpa in his campaign, showcasing his awkward dance moves on social media and winning over young voters.

Over half of Indonesia's voting population is under the age of 30.

Borsuk expressed a legitimate worry that Indonesia may revert to some democratic norms that have been established since Suharto.

Jokowi’s economic legacy

Although there was previously animosity between them, Prabowo has committed to continuing with Jokowi's popular economic reform plan.

Jokowi, in his time as leader, has implemented significant changes that have improved the economy's future prospects, including a major restructuring of the labor market and increased investment in infrastructure, according to Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, in a note dated February 7th.

Jokowi's son's nomination as Prabowo's vice-presidential running mate has sparked criticism of nepotism, but is viewed as Jokowi's effort to maintain the continuity of his policies.

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Despite the outcome of the election, the new administration will encounter long-term structural challenges such as declining revenue ratios, inefficient spending (high subsidies versus productive infrastructure investments), and over-reliance on commodities, according to Goldman Sachs economists Rina Jio and her team in a December 14 report.

After the new administration is inaugurated in October this year, there will likely be more policy uncertainty in 2025.

Goldman Sachs economists predict that if the new government scraps the proposed 1 percentage point increase in value added tax that's scheduled to start Jan. 1, 2025, it may lead to the potential discontinuation of the new capital city project, attempts to loosen the fiscal deficit cap, and a potential lower rate of inflation.

The economic and market implications of the candidates' similar economic platforms are limited in the very near-term, according to their statement.

— CNBC’s Celestine Francis Xavier contributed to this story.

The spelling of Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto's names in this story was corrected.

by Clement Tan

politics