Voters in Georgia must decide between a future aligned with Russia or Europe through their election choices.

• The upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia are being referred to as a "once-in-a-lifetime" vote that will determine whether the former Soviet state aligns more closely with Russia or the West.
• Like other ex-Soviet states, Georgia is torn between Russia and the West, with opposing forces pulling it in either direction.

This weekend's parliamentary elections in Georgia are being referred to as a "once-in-a-lifetime" vote that will decide whether the country aligns more closely with Russia or the West.

The upcoming vote on Saturday is closely monitored to determine whether the ruling "Georgian Dream" party, which has shifted from a pro-Western group to a pro-Russia party in recent years, will maintain its hold on power or be ousted by pro-Western opposition parties.

In the lead-up to the election, polls conducted by pro-opposition or pro-government groups are often viewed as unreliable. Additionally, it's possible that no party on the ballot will be able to form a government on their own, necessitating a coalition.

The upcoming election in Georgia is a crucial juncture for the country, which, like other ex-Soviet states, faces a choice between aligning with Russia or the West, and where political polarization has intensified.

According to Ketevan Chachava, a non-resident fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, the upcoming elections are a crucial turning point for Georgia's future, as all sides agree.

The Georgian Dream Party's rhetoric towards the West, as stated by its founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, who refers to the West as the "party of war" and claims it forced Georgia and Russia into conflict, has caused concern among pro-European groups, international partners, and observers, indicating a broader struggle between pro-European and pro-Russian forces.

The Georgian government has recently implemented policies that contradict its earlier aspirations to join NATO and the EU, and instead align it with Moscow. These policies, criticized by opposition parties and human rights advocates, restrict media freedoms, civil society, and the rights of sexual minorities.

The most evident indication of Georgian Dream's descent into a Kremlin-style governance was the introduction of a Russia-style law on foreign influence in May and the subsequent police crackdown on protests against the bill.

The government has intensified its efforts to combat Western influences in domestic politics, stating that it will ban all pro-Western opposition groups if it gains a constitutional majority in the upcoming election.

Although Georgian Dream's discourse has become more critical of the West, the party maintains its commitment to Georgia's membership in the EU, as evidenced by its campaign posters featuring the party's emblem alongside the EU symbol.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder and leader of the party, stated that Georgia should join the EU with dignity and avoid going to war with or sanctioning Russia, as well as harming its economy in the process.

A majority of Georgia's population, approximately 80%, supports membership in the EU, with around 67% supporting membership in NATO. This puts a significant portion of Georgia's 3.8 million people at odds with a government that appears to be turning its back on those aspirations.

Critical vote

The Georgian government's perceived backtracking on human rights and democratic principles have put it in direct conflict with Washington and the EU, which have imposed sanctions on Georgian officials and put Tbilisi's EU accession talks and funding on ice as a result. This is a rapid fall from grace as Georgia only obtained EU candidate status in December 2023.

Georgian Dream has been advised by European lawmakers to "roll back undemocratic legislation" in order to "make progress in its relations with the EU," as stated in a European Parliament declaration from October.

The upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia are viewed as "crucial in shaping Georgia's future democratic trajectory and geopolitical alignment" and its potential to advance its EU membership candidacy, according to the European Parliament.

Georgia's election has been characterized as a referendum on whether to align with Europe or maintain closer ties with Russia.

The former Soviet influence in Georgia's politics is still a significant concern, with Moscow perceived to have increased its control over the Georgian Dream party, particularly after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Georgian Dream chose not to align with Western and international sanctions against Russia following the start of the war, with founder Ivanishvili portraying the election as a battle between peace and war, and labeling the West as a "Global War Party" that would lead Georgia into a conflict with Russia, as he had done with Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War reported Monday that Moscow will closely monitor the Georgian government's outcome, as the Kremlin aims to use any pro-Russian government to further its strategic interests and geopolitical objectives of controlling Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia.

The ISW stated that the election results will likely influence Georgia's decision to abandon its longstanding policy of aligning with the West and instead strengthen its economic and political ties with the Kremlin, in line with the pro-Kremlin positions of the Georgian Dream party.

Polarization

In the last week, both Georgian Dream and pro-EU groups have held rallies in Tbilisi to garner support before the upcoming vote.

Last weekend, Georgia's President Salome Zourabichvili, a staunch critic of the ruling party, addressed crowds of supporters and stated that the upcoming vote would "showcase the people's desire for freedom, independence, and a European future."

Zourabichvili addressed the crowd, many of whom were waving EU and Georgian flags, and stated that today is the society, the people, and the Georgians who are heading to Europe.

Georgian Dream founder Ivanishvili accused pro-Western opposition parties of war crimes at a rally Wednesday, promising to prosecute them if his party won the election.

The polarization of Tbilisi's pre-election environment is increasing, according to analysts, which may lead to heightened tensions around the election result, regardless of the outcome.

The recent electoral reform in Georgia has changed the parliamentary system, with 150 seats being awarded under a fully proportional system, requiring parties to surpass a 5% threshold to win seats.

According to an analysis by Tina Dolbaia, Benjamin Shefner, and Maria Snegovaya of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the switch to a fully proportional electoral system makes it challenging to envision a clear-cut victory for GD or a complete defeat of the opposition.

According to this logic, the most probable outcome in Tbilisi would be a coalition government that would limit GD's influence. However, there are significant concerns about electoral fraud, including vote buying, ballot stuffing, carousel voting, misusing state and administrative resources, and denying citizens living outside of Georgia the right to vote, as noted by the analysts.

"Even if civil society overcomes obstacles on election day and GD fails to secure a majority of seats, the political environment in Georgia remains deeply polarized. If the opposition does not form a single bloc after the elections, GD may remain the most powerful party in the parliament."