The upcoming French election is being overshadowed by Russia's invasion, which is happening just two weeks before the vote.

The upcoming French election is being overshadowed by Russia's invasion, which is happening just two weeks before the vote.
The upcoming French election is being overshadowed by Russia's invasion, which is happening just two weeks before the vote.
  • Emmanuel Macron, the incumbent, has faced criticism for his absence from the political campaign amidst the security crisis.
  • France's European affairs minister stated that people would not anticipate or approve of him being absent, fully immersed in rallies and campaigning, to the extent that he must become President.
  • In the upcoming first round of the election on April 10, Macron has garnered 28% of public support according to opinion polls.
The first round of the French Presidential Election 2022 takes place on Sunday 10 April.
The first round of the French Presidential Election 2022 takes place on Sunday 10 April. (Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images)

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is dominating the political discourse in France ahead of the first round of presidential elections.

While far-right political leaders have seen a decline in public support due to their ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Emmanuel Macron has faced criticism for his absence from the political campaign as he grapples with the geopolitical crisis in Europe. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has contributed to rising energy and food prices throughout the continent, causing concerns about the cost of living, particularly in France.

CNBC's Charlotte Reed spoke with France's minister for European affairs, Clement Beaune, who described the campaign as unusual yet unique in its own way, supporting Macron.

When Macron was first elected in 2017, people were unfamiliar with him and his platform. However, now the French people are well-acquainted with him and his political beliefs, which is why he has been less active in campaigning compared to five years ago, as he stated.

He added, “people would not expect him or like him to be absent, absorbed by rallies, campaigning himself so basically he needs to be president.”

Vladimir Putin is the Russian leader that speaks with Macron, the European leader, the most and has tried to act as a bridge between Moscow and Kyiv and attempts to reach a ceasefire.

According to Poll of Polls, Macron is predicted to receive 28% of the public's support in the first round of voting on April 10, while Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon are expected to receive 19% and 14% respectively.

We're at the end of 'naive globalisation,' French Finance Minister Le Maire says

Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, polls predicted that Macron would win the first round with 25% and Le Pen would come in second with 17% of the votes. However, the European security crisis boosted Macron's public support to 30%, which later decreased to the current 28%.

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, stated in a note on Monday that while Emmanuel Macron still maintains a lead over his opponents, the initial surge in support for him following Putin's invasion of Ukraine has largely dissipated.

It is expected that Macron will be re-elected after a second round of voting on April 24.

Despite the pandemic temporarily slowing down his reform momentum and causing a significant shift away from fiscal consolidation, Schmieding still believes that France is on track for a decade of faster growth, based on the economic reforms proposed by Macron as both economy minister and president.

In the aftermath of the invasion, the far-right has lost ground. Eric Zemmour, a newcomer to the French political scene, has fallen 4 percentage points in opinion polls and is no longer among the top three candidates in the first round.

Zemmour has advocated for visas for Ukrainian refugees with ties to France, but has defended different asylum rules based on religion. Prior to his candidacy, Zemmour expressed a desire for a "French Putin" to lead the country.

France's presidential candidate, Marine Le Pen, has gained some political support for her comments on the cost of living and her more moderate stance on the European Union. However, she faced initial embarrassment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In 2014, her anti-immigrant party received funds from Russian banks and printed campaign flyers featuring a photo of herself and President Putin, which have since been discarded.

Beaune stated to CNBC that the level of skepticism in Europe has changed since the 2017 election.

Against the backdrop of war, it is crucial for Europe to endure, as people desire its survival, he emphasized.

Macron is campaigning on a pro-European platform and has used the war in Ukraine to gain support from other European leaders for his long-term policy goals, including a more independent security policy for the bloc.

While 88% of French voters expressed concern about the situation in Ukraine, only 40% said it would impact their vote in the first round of the election.

How Ukraine brought the European Union together
by Silvia Amaro

politics