The think tank suggests that Putin has a range of choices, from poisoning to coup, against Ukraine.

• Although Russia is considered a "far more formidable power," Ukraine's armed forces have improved and are now "combat hardened," according to Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
• If Moscow decided to invade, Russian forces would ultimately succeed, but it would result in a "great cost in casualties," as he predicted.
• The Kremlin's support is likely to decrease due to a military conflict, according to Andrei Kolesnikov, head of the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

If tensions at the border with Ukraine lead to Russian casualties, Putin will face political consequences at home, says one analyst.

Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated that he does not want to see Russian forces occupying large portions of Ukraine that are hostile to those forces because he does not want to see casualties coming back to Russia.

The Kremlin will have a range of options against Ukraine, according to Bowman, even if there is no significant conflict between the two sides.

More than 100,000 Russian troops are stationed near the border with Ukraine, causing concern that an attack may be imminent. Despite the Kremlin's denial of such allegations, the military buildup has stirred up recollections of Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014.

While Russia is a "more powerful force," Ukraine's military has become "better trained and equipped," according to Bowman.

If Moscow decided to invade, Russian forces would ultimately succeed, but it would result in a "great cost in casualties," as he predicted.

Putin's actions will have a political impact on him in Russia, according to him.

The Kremlin's support is likely to decrease due to a military conflict, according to Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow and the chair of the Russian Domestic Politics and Political Institutions Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Kolesnikov stated on Twitter that Russians are unwilling to pay the cost of war.

Putin's 20-year rule could be threatened if Russia engages in a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, according to an article in Foreign Affairs magazine.

That's something the Russian leader wants to avoid, Bowman said.

"Putin is a shrewd customer who understands these things, and I believe he wants to achieve this objective at the lowest political cost," he stated.

'Spectrum of options'

A major combat operation between Russia and Ukraine is "not necessarily" going to occur, according to Bowman.

Putin desires to attain his goal of Ukraine not joining NATO through negotiations, but the request has been rejected by the U.S. and the West.

If Putin fails to obtain that, Russia's strategy involves assassinations, poisonings, and coups, according to him.

Putin has refined his "gray-zone warfare" of cyberattacks and propaganda, and there are various options available for him to use, including information warfare, which is already underway.

If Russia attacks, it could opt for "punitive missile strikes" without invading Ukraine and seizing new land, according to him.

Moscow has the potential to launch an amphibious assault or annex Ukraine's Donbass region, as it did with Crimea in 2014, according to Bowman.

He pointed out that both world wars involved the violation of international borders.

"In Georgia in 2008, we witnessed the same thing in Crimea in 2014, and it's happening now, he stated. This is a significant matter that should not be taken lightly."