The regime change in Syria has significant repercussions worldwide.

• The fall of the Syrian government due to rebel forces could have significant consequences for the Middle East, geopolitics, and markets, according to experts.
• In the past fortnight, opposition groups swiftly captured several cities across the country, with rebels led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham spearheading the offensive.
• At last, the group captured the capital Damascus over the weekend, causing President Bashar al-Assad to flee the country and seek refuge in Russia, where he has been granted asylum.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime due to rebel forces could have significant effects on the Middle East, global alliances, and markets, according to analysts.

In the past two weeks, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist militant group, led a rapid offensive across Syria, capturing major cities. The group eventually seized Damascus over the weekend, prompting President Bashar al-Assad to flee the country and seek refuge in Russia, according to Russian state media reports.

Western nations expressed caution about the overthrow of Assad, fearing the possibility of more bloodshed and a power vacuum in Syria if a chaotic and contested transition of leadership occurs.

Syria, which has been ravaged by a 13-year civil war, has witnessed various factions, including the Islamic State, battle each other and Assad's forces, increasing the likelihood of power struggles.

The fall of the Assad dynasty after 50 years in power has immediate global consequences, with Russia and Iran losing out and the U.S., Turkey, and Israel gaining from the ousting of the Syrian dictator.

The fall of the Assad regime in Damascus will have far-reaching consequences beyond Syria, with Iran and Russia being the major losers, as stated by Holger Schmieding, the chief economist at Berenberg Bank, in his analysis on Monday.

U.S., Europe emboldened

The fall of Assad and the subsequent weakening of Russia and Iran after losing a key ally in the region will provide U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Western powers with a much-needed boost.

Bill Blain, a market strategist, stated in emailed comments on Monday that when Donald Trump assumes office on January 20th, 2025, he will face a threat board where the opposition is significantly weakened, and the U.S. holds many of the cards.

The overthrow of Assad in Syria doesn't necessarily mean the world is safer, as it's uncertain what kind of new Syria will emerge. However, it seems like power and the global initiative may shift back to the West.

The fall of Assad and the defeat of Russia and Iran in the process, as Blain stated, have significant implications for markets, particularly in regards to the dollar's dominance and the momentum that could be gained behind Trump's global trade vision, which places the U.S. and the U.S. dollar at the forefront.

Blain stated that the impact on sentiment could be significant in terms of global confidence and the redirection of flows into U.S. assets and commodities due to rising growth expectations.

Israel and Turkey boosted

According to analysts, Israel and Turkey are the major immediate geopolitical "winners" in the Syrian conflict, with Israel seeing its regional nemesis Iran weakened further and Turkey emerging as the most influential foreign actor in the country, as noted by Wolfango Piccoli, co-president at risk consultancy Teneo, on Sunday.

Since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Turkey, which shares a 560-mile border with Syria, has been a key supporter of opposition groups working to overthrow Assad, as stated in emailed comments.

"According to Piccoli, Turkey will be the largest beneficiary of Assad's fall, but he warned that Ankara will only experience the benefits if the power transfer is peaceful and no dangerous vacuum of power emerges."

According to Piccoli, Turkey will only benefit if the Assad regime is replaced by a stable government capable of providing stability to a diverse country with numerous factions that will require billions of dollars in aid and investments to rebuild.

Not surprisingly, Turkish officials have advised Syrian opposition factions to come together after the collapse of the regime in Damascus, but have cautioned against making any triumphant declarations.

Israel has benefited from Assad's fall due to its impact on Iran's supply route to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Israel has targeted as part of its military campaign against Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Gaza.

In a Monday note, David Roche at Quantum Strategy stated that Assad's fall represents the first significant geopolitical shift that weakens "the Axis of Autocracies," including Iran and Russia, in a long time.

Roche stated that the agreement does not resolve the Israel-Iran conflict, but it strengthens the position of Israel and the U.S. to continue targeting Iran's economic power. Trump will begin with hard sanctions. However, dealing with Iran's nuclear ambitions militarily is still necessary, which will happen later (around 2025-2026).

Russia weakened

Russia, Assad's ally and backer, has been significantly impacted by his overthrow, as Moscow's focus on the conflict in Ukraine has limited the military aid it could provide to Assad's regime.

Russia will be concerned about the amount of influence and goodwill it can expect from a new leadership in Syria, as it has a vested interest in maintaining a good relationship with the new government. Moscow operates an air base in Hmeimim and a naval base in Tartus, which provide it with access to the Mediterranean Sea.

Putin's humiliation from Assad's ousting, which he had boasted about never abandoning his allies, was described by Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management.

Putin's weakened position in Ukraine allows for a more likely peaceful resolution, as developments in Syria suggest.

After Israel weakened its proxies, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Iran's misfortunes have only grown.

As another proxy domino falls, with Hezbollah and Assad, Iran's influence continues to deteriorate. Could Tehran prevent further decline, or will internal forces rise again? Ash posed this question in emailed comments, wondering what Tehran can do to halt the rot of its influence.