The outcome of the U.S. election will determine the future of aid for Ukraine.

• Ukrainian officials are closely monitoring U.S. polls this week, with a sense of unease as the outcome remains uncertain.
• The U.S., after nearly three years of supporting Kyiv's military, is showing signs of funding fatigue.
• Regardless of whether Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris is elected president, analysts predict that funding for Ukraine may decrease.

The upcoming US presidential election on Tuesday could significantly impact the ongoing aid for Ukraine, leading to heightened tensions in Kyiv.

The latest poll from NBC News revealed a "tied race" between the Republican nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump and the Democrats' candidate, current Vice President Kamala Harris.

The major concern for Kyiv is the amount of support and financial assistance it will receive following the departure of White House leader Joe Biden, who has been in office during Russia's conflict in Ukraine.

Despite ongoing public support from the White House and NATO, funding fatigue is setting in among Kyiv's biggest military supporters, particularly the U.S., after almost three years of fighting.

While a Trump administration and hard-line Republicans would be less likely to provide more military aid to Ukraine, even a Kyiv-friendly administration under Kamala Harris may struggle to convince U.S. lawmakers to give significantly more financial support to the war-torn nation.

Kyiv officials are closely monitoring the election, with concerns that future aid may be reduced.

Senior Ukrainian official Yuriy Sak informed CNBC last week that of course, they understand that this is one of the possible scenarios which would be extremely unfavorable for Ukraine.

He stated that we will do everything to maintain the funding and support from our partners in the U.S. at the same level, as the alternative is detrimental to all parties involved, including the United States of America.

"We closely monitor the events unfolding and have our own views on the candidates. However, we hope and believe that whoever becomes the next president, the United States will continue to support Ukraine until our victory and until we achieve a just peace."

Ukraine depends on its international allies for military, humanitarian, and financial support to maintain economic stability and military strength against Russian forces in southern and eastern Ukraine.

Since the start of the war in Feb. 2022 to Aug. 31 this year, the Kiel Institute of the World Economy, a reputable tracker of external aid for Ukraine, reports that the U.S. has spent approximately $108 billion on military, humanitarian, and financial aid, while EU member states and institutions, including the European Investment Bank and European Commission, have spent a combined total of 161.11 billion euros ($175.47 billion) on such aid.

The likelihood of funding drying up

The passage of the $61-billion aid package for Ukraine has faced opposition from hard-line Republicans, resulting in months of delays and objections, making it a tough sell to U.S. lawmakers.

The outcome of the election will determine the extent to which the future president can support or thwart Ukraine financially, as well as the amount of power they wield.

It is likely that Trump views cutting off military aid to Kyiv as a means to force an end to the war.

J.D. Vance, his running mate, openly opposes additional aid for Ukraine and believes the U.S. should push for a peace deal with Russia, even if it means surrendering land to Moscow.

The possibility of Trump abruptly ending funding for Ukraine is a distinct possibility due to his unpredictability, according to economists at Berenberg Bank.

"While Europe is the leading donor to Ukraine, the U.S. military aid is crucial for Kyiv, according to Berenberg Bank. If Europe does not act quickly and provide €50 billion ($54.1 billion) in bonds to purchase the weapons and ammunition that Ukraine needs but cannot produce, Putin could win the war of attrition and force Ukraine to surrender."

An election victory for Harris would provide relief for Kyiv, as she has promised her administration will support Ukraine "for as long as it takes." However, neither she nor Washington have defined the exact meaning of her statement, what a Ukrainian victory looks like, or whether there is a limit to U.S. aid.

Before the presidential election, reports indicated that Western officials believed a Harris administration would face challenges in securing significant aid for Ukraine from Congress.

CNBC has reached out to the Harris and Trump campaign teams.

Making Russia pay?

The G7 leaders have agreed to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan, backed by frozen Russian assets, in order to "Trump-proof" near-term aid ahead of the Nov.5 election.

Before the new U.S. administration can reverse the agreement, the G7 announced that it would begin distributing the funds before the year's end.

If the U.S. reduces funding for Ukraine in 2025, Europe will be responsible for supporting Kyiv, which will make it difficult to decide how to use the frozen Russian central bank assets held in Europe.

According to Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, $50 billion, which was agreed upon by the G7, may seem like a substantial amount of money, but it only covers 3-4 months of Ukraine's funding requirements.

He advocates for seizing and allocating an estimated $330 billion of immobilized Russian assets to aid Ukraine in its fight against Russia, but has observed resistance from some EU countries who fear retaliation. Not all nations are equally concerned; currently, approximately $191 billion of all immobilized Russian assets are held in Euroclear, the Belgian central securities depository.

Ash urged any future Trump administration to pressure the EU to release the full $330 billion in assets to Ukraine.

He suggested that Ukraine could finance its own defense and recovery, and possibly allocate a significant portion of the funds to purchase defense equipment in the U.S.

Ash proposed that the U.S. spending $150 billion on defense over ten years would be the largest foreign defense purchase in U.S. history. This would save U.S. taxpayers from writing checks for Ukraine, secure thousands of defense industry jobs in the U.S., help Ukraine win the war, and build up its own defense against future Russian attacks, all funded by the aggressor - Russia.

A precarious future

Despite the outcome of Tuesday's vote, analysts agree that Ukraine's future remains uncertain due to decreasing Western support and funding exhaustion.

According to Tim Willasey-Wilsey, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank, the immediate threat to Ukraine stems from the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

The upcoming US presidential election poses the greatest risk. If Donald Trump wins, he may contact Russian President Vladimir Putin as soon as 6 November, signaling a potential negotiated settlement, with talks possibly commencing in early 2025.

In any negotiations, it is unlikely that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be able to recover the Russian-occupied Crimea and Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, or receive reparations for the significant damage to his country. Additionally, it is likely that a negotiated settlement will stipulate that Russian officials are not put on trial for alleged war crimes.

The end of reaching the holy grail for Ukraine - future NATO membership - could be a bigger blow if a peace deal is reached.