The likelihood of a large-scale invasion of Ukraine is extremely high, according to an analyst.
- Sonia Mycak of the Australian National University's Centre for European Studies stated that Russia has been engaged in conflict with Ukraine for eight years and there is a likelihood of future incursions.
- After Russian President Vladimir Putin declared two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent on Monday evening, she made her comments.
- According to Peter Zwack, a global fellow at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, Russia is engaging in a "creeping annexation" that is not formalized, similar to what Moscow did with Georgia and Crimea.
A research fellow at the Australian National University's Centre for European Studies predicts that Russia may continue its eight-year war on Ukraine and make further incursions.
Since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and invaded some regions in Ukraine, over 15,000 soldiers and civilians have been killed, according to Sonia Mycak, who shared this information on CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Tuesday.
Unfortunately, the chances of a full-scale invasion are "very, very high" at this point, she stated.
The accumulation of Russian troops at the border with Ukraine over the past few months is not a new or recent act of aggression, but rather a continuation of the war that Russia has been waging.
The events of the past 24 hours are just another part of the eight-year war strategy," she stated. "There is a high likelihood of further incursions into Ukrainian territory.
Whether Russia will increase aggression against Ukraine is uncertain, but if European countries and the US act quickly, it may not happen, according to Mycak.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin declared on Monday evening that he would recognize two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, her comments were made. Putin issued a decree calling for forces to enter Donetsk and Luhansk, though it is unclear what that mission entails.
Putin's behavior of acknowledging a separatist area in Crimea to assist Ukrainians who wanted to break away before making laws to bring Crimea into the Russian Federation appears to be a pattern, according to Mycak.
She warned that the recognition of independent regions in Ukraine could be used as an excuse to increase military force and annex those territories into the Russian Federation.
According to Peter Zwack, a global fellow at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, Russia is engaging in a "creeping annexation" that lacks formalization, similar to its actions in Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014.
He stated that declaring peacekeepers is always the case here.
— CNBC’s Amanda Macias contributed to this report.
politics
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