The implications of a Harris election win for Europe and the transatlantic relationship.

• On Thursday, Vice President Kamala Harris will deliver what is expected to be her most significant political speech at the Democratic National Convention.
• The politician, who is 59 years old, will reveal her vision and policy plans to the American public. Meanwhile, many Europeans will be interested in knowing how a Harris presidency will impact the transatlantic relationship.
• If Harris were to win, political analysts expect a broadly similar approach to Biden's policy platform, with some subtle differences on major international issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war.

On Thursday, Vice President Kamala Harris will deliver what is expected to be her most significant political speech at the Democratic National Convention.

The politician, who is 59 years old, will reveal her vision and policy plans to the American public. Meanwhile, many Europeans will be interested in knowing how a Harris presidency will impact the transatlantic relationship.

After President Biden ended his campaign, Harris, who rose to the top of the Democrats' ticket, will face off against Republican nominee and former President Trump in November.

If Harris were to win, political analysts expect a broadly similar approach to Biden's policy platform, with some subtle differences on major international issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war.

Analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit anticipate that a Harris presidency would provide a sense of continuity in foreign affairs.

According to EIU analysts Emily Mansfield and Andrew Viteritti, who spoke to CNBC via email, Ukraine will experience a gradual decline in military aid, China will maintain a hawkish stance but without Trump's threat of immediate tariff hikes, and efforts will continue to balance support for Israel with de-escalation of the war in Gaza.

They added that although Harris has not criticized Biden on these issues, she may change her messaging around them, with her focus on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza being one example of this.

Ukraine, Israel and China

An assistant professor of political science at the Politecnico Institute of Turin in Italy, Francesco Nicoli, stated that the current trend of U.S.-EU convergence is likely to continue under a Harris presidency, particularly in areas such as trade, artificial intelligence, Big Tech, and climate policy.

Perhaps a Harris-Walz presidency in Ukraine will be bolder than Biden's, according to Nicoli's email to CNBC.

"The new Democratic ticket is likely to have a more liberal approach to providing aid to Ukraine if they do not fundamentally change the "red lines" approach that has been in place so far. Walz, in particular, has been a strong advocate for Ukraine."

Nicoli, a visiting fellow at Bruegel in Brussels, stated that a Harris presidency would not significantly change the transatlantic approach on international issues such as Israel and China.

The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, is likely to consider any compromise deal between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas a success if the war ends, as long as the bloc is content to let the U.S. take the lead in negotiations.

The European Commission did not respond to CNBC's request for comment on Thursday.

Nicoli stated that although he believes the EU would react promptly and unanimously if China invaded Taiwan, the EU's divided stance on China renders it an unreliable ally for the US in any situation except an all-out war.

The EU is likely to maintain its fragmented industrial policy, which may be perceived as anti-China in discussions with any future US president, but in reality, it is likely to be challenging the US as much as China. A Harris presidency is unlikely to alter that.

Security needs and industrial policies

A Harris victory in November would provide Europe with an opportunity to enhance its defense capabilities and adapt to the changing dynamics in the U.S.-EU relationship, according to Sudha David-Wilp, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank.

David-Wilp stated that there would likely be some continuity between the Biden administration and a Kamala Harris presidency in terms of ideals, actions, and advisors.

"Europe understands that a White House win for the Dems does not guarantee that the United States will fulfill all its security requirements and reverse its industrial policies."

Instead of worrying about Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, the EU should collaborate with the U.S. to safeguard supply chains from economic weaponization and prioritize investing in domestic capital and research to achieve advancements in areas such as AI or green energy.

Harris would not disrupt the transatlantic relationship, but her foreign policy focus would naturally turn to China first as well as to addressing immediate crises in the Middle East and at the US southern border — topics that have more relevance within American domestic politics, she added.