The French government was toppled in a no-confidence vote initiated by the opposition.

• The French government has been toppled in a vote of no confidence.
• While French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to ask Prime Minister Michel Barnier to continue as a caretaker prime minister, it is anticipated that he will resign immediately.
• The next parliamentary elections will not occur until June-July, 12 months after the previous election.

On Wednesday, the French government was toppled in a vote of no confidence, leaving the euro zone's second-largest economy in a state of deep political uncertainty.

The no-confidence motion in the country's lower house was supported by 331 lawmakers from both the leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance and the far-right National Rally (RN), surpassing the 288 votes needed to pass the motion.

On Monday, both the left and rightwing blocs tabled motions against the social security budget bill that was passed by Prime Minister Michel Barnier using special constitutional powers, without a vote.

The National Rally announced that it would vote for its own "motion de censure" against the government and also support the NFP's motion.

At least 288 deputies were needed in the National Assembly to pass the no-confidence vote, with a combined total of 333 lawmakers in Parliament, some of whom were expected to abstain from the vote.

Barnier addressed lawmakers during a debate prior to the vote, stating that he was not fearful of being voted out but urged parties to collaborate and put the general interest above their differences. He expressed gratitude for having served as prime minister before receiving a standing ovation from French politicians.

If the confidence vote is lost, Barnier will have to resign as premier after just three months, making his administration the shortest-lived in France's Fifth Republic, which started in 1958.

The prime minister's downfall is due to the failure of negotiations with opposition parties to agree on a single aspect of the 2025 budget, which includes 60 billion euros ($63 billion) in spending cuts and tax increases aimed at reducing France's budget deficit, which is projected to be 6.1% in 2024.

Despite Barnier's minority government's efforts, it was unable to convince its opponents on both sides of the political spectrum. As a result, it faced the possibility of further negotiations on the broader budget that needed to be passed by December 21. Additionally, the government was vulnerable to the National Rally's support, which had agreed to back the government until spending disagreements arose earlier this week.

The appointment of Barnier, a conservative from the Les Républicains party, was met with controversy in September following the victory of the RN and NFP in the parliamentary elections held in June and July.

On Wednesday, despite their ideological differences, the blocs united against Barnier and the government due to their shared opposition to the government's budget plans. This "unholy alliance" of political adversaries was described by some analysts.

What happens next?

Barnier is predicted to resign promptly, but Macron may request him to remain as an interim prime minister until a successor is found. Parliamentary elections cannot occur until June-July, a year after the previous vote.

According to Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia Group, the fall of Barnier and the government means that "all their unfinished legislative business falls with them."

A caretaker government cannot pass a 2025 budget, so time is of the essence to appoint a new prime minister, according to Rahman. This means that a new prime minister must be chosen quickly, which puts pressure on Macron to make a decision.

The formation of the government will be closely monitored, as stated by Carsten Nickel, the deputy director of research at Teneo, particularly regarding the level of involvement of Macron in the process. Nickel cautioned that Barnier's caretaker status may persist, as new elections are not feasible until the summer.

The outcome of Barnier's tenure will serve as a cautionary tale for any future prime minister chosen by Macron, highlighting the challenges and pitfalls they will encounter when attempting to achieve consensus on key policy decisions, including the budget, due to the deep-seated divisions in French politics resulting from Macron's hasty call for snap elections earlier this year.

Macron returned from a three-day state visit to Saudi Arabia Wednesday evening, but his low profile in recent weeks amid political turmoil has resulted in pressure over his appointment of a new prime minister and his own position.

Rahman stated that Macron has the power to select any Prime Minister he desires to replace Barnier, including Barnier himself. However, France's Parliament has the authority to censure Macron's new choice at any time.

Both Macron and the divided parliamentary majority that opposes him must carefully calculate their strategy, according to Rahman.

The left and far right must exercise caution. If they criticize the new PM, there will be no legal authority to propose a rolled-over, stopgap budget. The government could potentially shut down on 1 January if there is no legal basis to raise taxes to cover expenses such as pensions, police, healthcare, defense, or assembly deputies' salaries.

It is possible that the president may face calls for his resignation from both the left and right, prompting an early presidential election before 2027.

If Macron resigns, presidential elections will occur within 35 days, according to analyst Carsten Nickel. Although this scenario seems unlikely, the snap polls from earlier this year should remind us of Macron's tendency to make decisions independently.

The new crisis places Macron at the center of the political game, according to Eurasia Group's Mujtaba Rahman.