The former American ambassador suggests that Putin may be deterred from invading Ukraine due to potential backlash.

• John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, stated that it is "reasonable" to believe that Russia may intensify the conflict in Ukraine.
• "I believe it's a possibility, but I think Putin is afraid of the response," he said on CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Monday.
• Herbst stated that the likelihood of Russia succeeding in a long-term conflict with Ukraine is extremely slim.

A former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine stated on Monday that many people believe that Vladimir Putin could invade Ukraine, but the Russian president may be deterred by the consequences that Washington has warned about.

According to John Herbst, the possibility of Russia increasing tension in Ukraine is "justifiable" due to the large number of troops stationed near the border and the persistent hostility from Moscow, as he stated in his role as senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.

There are concerns among the United States and its allies that Russia may attack Ukraine in the near future, despite Moscow's denial of any plans to invade the Eastern European country.

If an invasion occurs, punishing sanctions will be part of U.S. President Joe Biden's framework to counter Russia, which also includes sending weapons to Ukraine and moving NATO forces along Russia's border.

Herbst believes that Putin may be afraid of the response, but she considers it a possibility on CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Monday.

Putin may increase the number of Russian troops in Ukraine if he believes the Biden response is a bluff, according to the source. The confrontation is expected to last for six to eight weeks, he added.

According to Herbst, the United States and its allies must take a firm stance against Russia because appeasement did not yield results when Moscow invaded Georgia and Crimea, resulting in minimal repercussions.

The U.S. plan is currently "reasonable," but it lacks sufficient activity, according to him. He stated that it needs to be strengthened and implemented quickly, and this should be done in collaboration with our allies.

Possible ramifications

Herbst stated that the likelihood of Russia succeeding in a long-term conflict with Ukraine is extremely slim.

A significant portion of Ukrainians "detest the Kremlin" due to its aggression and will resist, despite Moscow's stronger military. However, in the future, it may be challenging for Russia to maintain control over the cities it has captured, according to the prediction.

If Russia invades Ukraine, its overall geopolitical position will deteriorate, the expert stated.

The likelihood of Sweden or Finland joining NATO increases significantly if Russia deploys troops in Ukraine, according to him, stating that Putin's actions have made NATO membership a pressing concern for the two nations.

According to Oleg Ignatov, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, Putin views the threat of a military conflict as an advantage in Russia's negotiating position.

Despite the lack of progress in the talks, it's a positive sign that Russia remains engaged, he stated.

Withdrawal of Russia will lead to war, according to Ignatov, who advised continuing negotiations as the best option at present, on CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Monday.