The EU is facing a crucial decision on providing aid to Ukraine at its final summit in 2023.

• The upcoming meeting of European heads of state promises to be challenging, with Ukraine's support being the main focus, but internal disagreements may hinder any substantial action towards Kyiv.
• This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently conveyed that reducing aid to Ukraine benefits Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• As European Council President, Charles Michel emphasized the importance of making decisions to safeguard the EU's interests in supporting Ukraine, during a CNBC interview on Tuesday.

European leaders are preparing for a challenging summit where supporting Ukraine is the main priority, but internal disagreements may hinder any substantial action towards Kyiv.

Ukraine is facing a critical moment as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travels the world seeking additional support in the battle against Russia's invasion. He began the week in Argentina, followed by a trip to the United States, and arrived in Norway on Wednesday.

Throughout all of his stops, he consistently conveyed the message that reducing aid to Ukraine would benefit Russia's president, Vladimir Putin.

European Council President Charles Michel, who is leading the summit, stated on CNBC on Tuesday that it is imperative that we make decisions.

We must safeguard the interests of the European Union by backing Ukraine.

What’s at stake

The European Commission has proposed to send 50 billion euros ($54.43 billion) to Ukraine between 2024 and 2027, but Hungary's opposition is preventing the disbursement.

The EU leaders will discuss the possibility of official negotiations with Ukraine for its potential accession to the bloc, but Hungary has expressed reservations again. Some other EU member states, including Italy, have raised concerns about enlarging the EU.

In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Olga Stefanishyna, Ukraine's deputy prime minister, stated that the commencement of formal talks would significantly enhance the country's stability.

She emphasized the importance of continuing to mobilize these messages.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, western support for Kyiv has been declining. In fact, there was a nearly 90% drop in newly committed aid to Ukraine between August and October 2022 compared to the same period in 2022, according to data from the Kiel Institute.

The institute stated that Ukraine is increasingly dependent on a select group of donors, including the U.S., Germany, and Nordic and Eastern European countries, who consistently provide both financial assistance and crucial weapons.

The ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel has diverted attention from Kyiv, and inflationary pressures have restricted Western governments' ability to provide additional aid. Meanwhile, Russia maintains a military advantage.

Russia’s sweet spot

Teneo's Central and Eastern Europe Advisor, Andrius Tursa, predicts that Russia will maintain a significant edge in military equipment, munitions, and manpower during the first half of 2024.

Russia is rapidly increasing its military output, with additional supplies from North Korea and Iran, while also keeping up military recruitment to compensate for manpower losses without causing visible public discontent.

A recent poll by the Levada Center shows that although support for Putin's actions in Ukraine is gradually declining, 74% of the Russian population still supports the war in Ukraine to some extent.