The election victory of a Russia-friendly party in Georgia could lead to demonstrations and potential violence.

• A contentious parliamentary election was held in Georgia over the weekend, and the ruling party, Georgian Dream, which is friendly towards Russia, is expected to face mass protests in Tbilisi on Monday evening.
• Despite the pro-Western president and Georgian opposition parties' claims that the vote was neither free nor fair, the country's election results were accepted.
• There is a possibility that the protests on Monday night may result in a severe police reaction, like what occurred during other protests this year.

Protests are anticipated in Tbilisi on Monday following the Georgian Dream's victory in the parliamentary election over the weekend.

The party in power for 12 years won another election on Saturday, but the pro-Western president and opposition parties claim the vote was not free and fair.

Georgia's pro-Western President Salome Zurabishvili urged the public to protest in central Tbilisi Monday evening, stating that the opposition will not tolerate "election fraud" and that "nobody can take away Georgia's European future," as reported by Georgia's Interpress news agency.

On Monday, Georgia's central election commission announced that Georgian Dream had won 53.9% of the vote with 99% of the country's voting districts counted. Despite having a lively opposition movement, Georgia's opposition is fractured, with its four largest coalitions each receiving around 8-11% of the vote.

In the lead-up to the election, voter polls presented differing perspectives on the outcome, with pro-government and pro-opposition TV networks broadcasting conflicting exit polls regarding the initial election results.

The election was viewed as a crucial event for the former Soviet republic, and possibly its most significant vote since gaining independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, with the ballot serving as a decision on whether to align with Russia or pursue the previously stated goal of joining the European Union (EU) and NATO.

Call for protests

The Georgian Dream party, led by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and billionaire founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, claimed that the election results were a reflection of public support for their policies and vision for Georgia. However, opposition parties swiftly rejected the results, alleging widespread election fraud.

Tina Bokuchava, leader of Georgia's main opposition party, the United National Movement, stated at a press briefing on Saturday that the party does not accept the stolen election results. The Unity-National Movement, which leads the coalition, received 10.1% of the vote.

Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of Georgian Dream, was accused by Bokuchava of stealing the Georgian people's "European future." Bokuchava urged the opposition to unite to restore Georgia's "European future."

"We will not recognize stolen election results and will fight for the return of our European future. We will not accept the results of these stolen elections," she stated, according to Interpress news agency.

On Monday evening, Georgian President Zourabichvili, a critic of the Georgian Dream party, urged citizens to stage a mass protest, characterizing the vote as a "Russian special operation."

"Zourabichvili, flanked by Georgian opposition party leaders, stated that the elections were a complete fraud and a taking away of votes, calling on Georgians to protest in Tbilisi to show the world that they do not recognize these elections."

BlueBay Asset Management's Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist, cautioned that opposition parties, who performed well in urban areas, could mobilize large crowds for protests, potentially leading to more violence between protesters and security forces, as seen earlier this year due to contentious government policies.

"Ash stated in an email that he anticipates the Georgia Dream government to employ a significant number of security forces and apply maximum pressure to withstand demonstrators. He also mentioned that he would not exclude the possibility of Russian security forces being deployed to support Ivanishvili during the election, which he described as the latest point of tension between Russia and the West."

EU, Washington and Moscow look on

The ongoing geopolitical tussle with Russia for influence over the former Soviet landscape is likely to have caused consternation in Europe and the U.S. given the election results. Georgian opposition parties had accused Russia of playing a significant role in vote-rigging ahead of the election, but Moscow has vehemently denied any wrongdoing.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's Press Secretary, reiterated that accusations of election interference were baseless.

Peskov rejected accusations of Russian interference, stating that they have become commonplace and unfounded, according to TASS news agency's translation of his comments to reporters on Monday.

Despite the growing political polarization, divisive campaign language, and allegations of voter pressure, Western officials acknowledged that Georgia's election was generally conducted in an organized manner.

The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) reported on Sunday that its international observers found that Georgia's election was marked by an uneven playing field, pressure, and tension. However, voters were given a wide range of choices on the ballot paper, and candidates were generally able to campaign freely.

The European Commission stated that while the election day was generally well-organized and administered, the vote took place in a tense environment with compromises in vote secrecy and procedural inconsistencies, as well as reports of intimidation and pressure on voters that negatively impacted public trust in the process.

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the pre-election environment was marred by the ruling party's misuse of public resources, vote buying, and voter intimidation, which contributed to an uneven playing field and eroded public and international trust in the possibility of a fair outcome.

Blinken urged Georgia's leaders to respect the rule of law, repeal legislation that undermines fundamental freedoms, and address deficiencies in the electoral process together, as the U.S. joined calls from international and local observers for a full investigation "of all reports of election-related violations."

Blinken emphasized that Georgia's European and Euro-Atlantic integration aspirations necessitate the government's respect for the rights of civil society and the fundamental freedoms of all Georgian citizens.

Just how committed Georgia remains to pro-Western integration is uncertain.

The government's top foreign policy priority is European integration, with a goal of joining the bloc by 2030. However, the ruling party's domestic and foreign policy has become increasingly authoritarian, with a rollback on commitments to democratic values in line with its EU membership aspirations.

Georgian Dream's summer introduction of a "foreign agents" law aimed at limiting perceived foreign influence was viewed as a step towards an authoritarian, Kremlin-style rule. This move was met with mass protests, which were met with a harsh police response.

Georgia's pro-Western trajectory was initially supported by the party, but the party has since become less enthusiastic about this path and anti-democratic policies have raised concerns in Brussels, leading to the freezing of EU accession talks earlier this year.

The Georgian Dream campaigned on an anti-war platform, asserting that a vote for pro-Western opposition parties would result in a direct conflict with Russia, similar to the situation in Ukraine.