The countries with the most to lose as the U.S. approaches the elections are these.

• While the U.S. presidential election is being closely watched globally on Tuesday, its significance varies among countries.
• The outcome of the Nov. 5 vote could impact the stability of foreign governments, economies, and territorial integrity.
• Any new administration is likely to have an immediate or near-term impact on China, Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and Iran.

Some countries are more affected by the U.S. presidential election outcome than others, as the world observes the voting process on Tuesday.

The outcome of the vote in some nations can determine whether there will be war or peace, stability or instability, and prosperity or economic hardship. This is particularly true for Ukraine, where the territorial integrity of the country is at risk.

We examine the countries that stand to gain or lose the most from the upcoming election, whether it's Republican ex-President Donald Trump or Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris.

China

The United States' biggest economic rival is undoubtedly China, and the rivalry shows no signs of decreasing, regardless of who becomes the next U.S. president.

Trump has threatened to restart a trade war with China, which he began during his first term, by imposing $250 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports. He defended this action as a way to reduce the trade deficit with China and boost American jobs and competitiveness.

Trump stated that if he was reelected, he would increase tariffs on Chinese goods by 60-100%. Not only China, but all U.S. imports could be subject to a 10% blanket tariff, as Trump has threatened. Economists predict that such a measure could cost the typical American household approximately $1,700 annually, with even higher costs if a 20% across-the-board tariff was introduced, as suggested by Trump.

Despite criticism from Harris' campaign team, there are indications that a Democrat-led administration may not reverse current tariffs, including those on Chinese electric vehicles and solar panels, which were implemented under President Biden.

The election outcome will determine the size of the Chinese stimulus package to boost domestic demand, as the country experiences weak consumer confidence and a slump in the housing market amid an economic slowdown.

Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine, which is currently engaged in a conflict with Russia and heavily dependent on foreign military assistance to continue the fight, will closely monitor the election, as will Moscow.

There is broad consensus that a Trump administration and conservative Republicans would be less likely to provide Ukraine with additional military aid, which would hinder its ability to defend against Russia.

Trump has stated that he could end the war in 24 hours if elected, indicating that he would withdraw funding for Ukraine to force it into a negotiated settlement with Russia. This would likely result in Ukraine surrendering approximately 20% of its territory in the south and east, which is currently under Russian occupation.

The U.S. election for Ukraine is crucial as continuing to fight without U.S. support could result in Ukraine losing even more land.

If Trump wins the U.S. election, American policy orientation will change, leading to increased pressure on Kyiv to negotiate. This may force the Ukrainians to choose whether to break from their most important military supporter, according to Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group, in emailed comments Monday.

The likelihood of passing more financial support for Ukraine depends on which party dominates Congress, even if a Kyiv-friendly administration under Harris continues to support the war-torn nation.

Harris pledged to support Ukraine "for as long as it takes," but her administration and Washington have not specified what that entails, what a Ukrainian victory would look like, or if there is a limit to U.S. aid.

Israel and Iran

While Trump and Harris may have differing foreign policy views in many areas, they both agree on supporting Israel's efforts to combat Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and Lebanon, respectively, and ending the conflict soon.

Iran may respond to Israel's recent missile strikes with retaliation, potentially leading to a cycle of tit-for-tat exchanges between the two countries.

Trump has portrayed himself as a "defender" of Israel at the Israeli-American Council summit in September, asserting his past support for the country and warning that Israel will face "complete destruction" if he is not elected, without providing evidence to support his claim. Additionally, he sparked controversy by stating at the event that "anyone who is Jewish and loves being Jewish and loves Israel is a fool if they vote for a Democrat."

During his first term in office, Trump gained popularity in Israel by deviating from decades of U.S. tradition and formally recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Additionally, he officially recognized the disputed Golan Heights area as being under Israeli sovereignty, earning further praise.

Last week, a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute revealed that approximately 65% of respondents believed Trump would be better for Israeli interests, compared to the 13% who felt Harris would be better. About 15% said there was no difference between the two candidates, while 7% were unsure.

Harris has been accused of adopting an ambivalent stance on Israel following her criticism of the country's military strategy, stating that the loss of life in Gaza over the past year was "devastating" and "heartbreaking."

Harris has consistently maintained that she supports Israel's right to defend itself and has condemned Hamas' attacks on Israel.

Officials believe that a Trump presidency would be detrimental to Iran, as he may allow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to attack Iran's nuclear sites, conduct targeted assassinations, and reimpose his "maximum pressure policy" through more sanctions on its oil industry, which was vetoed by Biden.

If Harris becomes president, she is likely to maintain Biden's foreign policy stance and de-escalate tensions. In late October, she stated that her message to Iran after Israel's recent strikes would be "do not respond" and that there must be a de-escalation in the region.

According to Ambassador Mitchell B. Reiss, a distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, a Harris administration would not significantly alter its current path.

President Harris's world view, policy preferences, and senior Cabinet choices are unknown, according to Reiss. My best guess is that she will largely continue Biden's foreign policy, prioritizing good relationships with allies and friends, and placing a heavy emphasis on diplomacy.

A second Trump term would likely involve a continuation of his personal and transactional approach to global affairs.

Reiss pointed out that the current president is not as committed to the traditional role the U.S. has played in maintaining peace and prosperity through its alliances and overseas troop deployments as previous presidents have been.