The Conservative Party's prospects for the UK election had already been bleak before the polling guru made their prediction, according to a report.

• The Conservative Party in the U.K. may face a significant electoral loss in the upcoming July 4 vote, according to the country's top polling expert, who attributes this decline to two major events that have occurred recently.
• According to John Curtice, the U.K.'s leading polling expert, this election is not about the ideological beliefs of the parties, but rather about their competence.

The Conservative Party, having been in power for 14 years, faces a potential defeat in the upcoming July 4 election.

Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister, has attempted to maintain a positive outlook on his party's poor polling performance in the days leading up to the election, despite indications of a significant victory for the opposition Labour Party, by stating that the outcome was not predetermined.

Political analysts agree that Sunak could not have repaired the damage done by previous leaders in recent years, despite the possibility of a reckoning and soul-searching after the election.

According to John Curtice, a renowned polling expert in the U.K., the party's downfall can be attributed to two significant events that occurred recently.

According to Curtice, the upcoming election is not about the parties' ideological views, but rather their competence.

"Because the Conservatives were dealt a bad hand, yet played it badly, we are now where we are."

The downfall of the party was caused by the revelation of "Partygate," the short-lived Liz Truss government, and its ill-fated economic policies that caused market panic.

According to Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research, the two defining events of the election are the only significant factors, with everything else being variation and embellishment.

No government that has overseen a market crisis has survived in elections, according to him. He added, "It's a death knell."

"In this scenario, the government has replaced two prime ministers, including Boris Johnson, who was removed due to his dishonest relationship with the truth, an issue that the Conservative Party has consistently ignored."

Scandals and mismanagement

The scandal that emerged during the Covid-19 pandemic was referred to as 'Partygate,' which involved government officials, including then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, attending lockdown-violating parties and gatherings in private homes and workplaces.

Johnson resisted calls to resign before finally doing so in June 2022. An inquiry later concluded that Johnson had deliberately misled parliament over lockdown parties, although the former prime minister had vehemently denied doing so. Sunak dodged questions over whether he agreed with the findings.

Liz Truss, who was Johnson's replacement, and her then-Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, caused a market meltdown by announcing a radical tax-cutting budget that roiled bond markets and sank the pound.

An iceberg lettuce was pitted against a framed photograph of Truss in a livestream by a British tabloid newspaper, with the lettuce emerging victorious when Truss resigned after just 50 days in office.

"Partygate" and Truss's unsuccessful premiership are likely to significantly influence voters' decisions on Thursday, according to Curtice.

"The electorate are voting against the government because they believe they made mistakes and view the Labour Party as a less appealing option, but they are still hopeful that Keir Starmer can improve things."

Both Sunak and Labour Party leader Keir Starmer have been hesitant to rely heavily on polls during their election campaigns, with the former avoiding highlighting Labour's persistent advantage and the latter avoiding appearing overconfident or inducing voter complacency. According to a Sky News poll tracker, Labour is projected to maintain a 20-point lead over the Conservatives, securing approximately 40% of the vote to the Tories' 20%.