The closely watched Taiwan election has commenced vote counting.

• The presidential election in Taiwan features a three-way contest among the incumbent parties: the Democratic Progressive Party, Kuomintang, and Taiwan People's Party.
• The election race has been disrupted by the emergence of TPP's presidential candidate Ko Wen-Je, who has gained support among young voters due to their dissatisfaction with stagnant wages and high inflation.
• The Taiwan election is crucial for U.S.-China relations and security issues in the Asia-Pacific region, according to global observers.

On Saturday, over 19 million Taiwanese voters went to the polls to determine whether the ruling Democratic Progressive Party should secure a third consecutive presidential term or if a change in leadership is necessary.

This year, the traditional DPP-Kuomintang duopoly is being challenged by the emergence of former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je and his Taiwan People's Party. With a legislative majority also at stake, there are fears of a hung Parliament, which could hinder policymaking and bring back the notorious confrontations between feuding legislators.

The upcoming Taiwan election is viewed as crucial for security in the Asia-Pacific due to China's escalating rhetoric on its territorial claim over Taiwan, amidst tense U.S.-China relations.

Despite the incumbent DPP's inconsistent policy record, local voters are primarily focused on the stagnant wages, high inflation, and increasing home prices and rent.

According to Wen-Ti Sung, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, framing a two-way presidential race as a binary choice on China policy is straightforward. However, with a three-way race, this framing becomes less effective.

Ko Wen-je's primary effect for me is to emphasize change versus continuity in policy issues at the domestic level, which allows for more variables to be considered.

The Ko effect

The controversial rollout of locally manufactured Covid vaccines by outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen during the pandemic and the perceived broader lack of transparency are among the common concerns that have been raised in pre-election rallies and debates.

Ko's popularity has been aided by these issues, as he presents himself as a non-politician. Ko has chosen Cynthia Wu, the eldest daughter of a prominent business family, as his vice presidential running mate.

Jing Bo-jiun, a senior research fellow in Taiwan Studies at the University of Oxford, stated that young voters, who often lack strong party affiliations, may prioritize finding candidates who can address longstanding issues such as low wages and high housing prices, which have not seen significant improvement during previous DPP and KMT administrations.

In October, the average monthly earnings of full-time Taiwanese employees increased by approximately 2.2% compared to the same month the previous year, despite headline inflation exceeding 3% during the same time period.

Jing stated that one of the reasons for TPP's Ko Wen-je's popularity among young people is their hope that this unconventional politician will introduce innovative policies to enhance their lives.

This year, Ko will face off against Tsai's current vice-president, Lai Ching-te, who has been nominated as the DPP's presidential candidate. Ko has chosen Hsiao Bi-khim, the Taiwanese envoy to the United States, as his vice president.

If Lai and Hsiao win the Jan. 13 vote for the Taiwan presidential office, it would mark the first time any political party has remained in power for more than two consecutive terms since Taiwan began holding direct presidential elections in 1996.

The DPP duo will be up against Kuomintang's presidential candidate, Hou Yu-ih, and his vice-presidential running mate, Jaw Shaw-kong, a well-known local television personality and talk show host. Prior to his current positions, Hou was the director-general of Taiwan's National Police Agency and the mayor of New Taipei City, which surrounds Taipei but not the capital.

Younger voters tend to have a more anti-establishment mindset, viewing both the KMT and DPP as outdated, ineffective, and corrupt political machines. This is evident in Ko's stronger support among those aged 30 and below, according to Kevin Luo, an assistant professor in political science at the University of Minnesota.

China factor

The TPP and KMT were in negotiations to form an alliance for a less confrontational team against China, but the plan fell apart on live TV before the nomination deadline in November due to disagreements over the joint ticket leader.

The change in vote could potentially result in a hung parliament, as it may split the vote evenly in the parliamentary election.

Western Kentucky University political science professor Timothy S. Rich expressed concern that mixed messages from Taiwan regarding relations with China or the US could be exploited by China.

He stated that an unfriendly legislature and overconfidence in US support could make it harder to respond to a growing security threat from China, potentially leading to miscalculations.

When meeting on the sidelines of the APEC leaders summit in November, Joe Biden was informed by Xi Jinping that Taiwan is the "most important and sensitive" issue in the China-U.S. relationship.

In his 2024 New Year's address, Xi stated that the reunification of the motherland is a historical inevitability, as translated by CNBC.

Beijing is irritated by Biden's promise to safeguard Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

In 2022, Nancy Pelosi, the former U.S. House Speaker, became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Taiwan in over two decades. Her trip caused communication between the world's two leading powers to halt before a tentative resumption only months ago.

Since the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan following its defeat in the Chinese civil war in 1949, China has never renounced its claim over the island, which has been self-governing ever since.

The Taiwan affairs office of China portrayed the self-governing island's election as a dilemma between "peace and war, prosperity and decline."

The election coincides with China's intensified military actions in the Taiwan Strait and other surrounding waters as Beijing continues to assert its sovereignty over an island it considers its own.

Beijing has been accused of vote interference in Taiwan's elections by the DPP-led government through military intimidation or by co-opting Taiwan's business elite due to their economic dependence on China.

At a pre-election press conference in Taipei on Tuesday, DPP’s Lai stated that peace is invaluable and war brings no benefits. He added that China has interfered in Taiwan's elections before, but this time, its interference is the most severe.

In response to what Beijing considers a violation of the Cross Straits Service Trade Agreement, China suspended tax concessions on 12 chemical compound imports from Taiwan weeks before the December elections.

Beijing's aims for the probe are more political than economic, according to Taiwanese government officials, due to the timing of the mission.

Charles Wu, an assistant professor in political science at University of South Alabama, stated that this election will not be determined by a particular policy or cross-Strait relations.

The DPP's governance in Taiwan for the next four years presents an opportunity to assess citizens' willingness to support the party.

In 2022, Nancy Pelosi, the former U.S. House Speaker, visited Taiwan.