The Assad dynasty falls in Syria as rebels seize Damascus.

• The ongoing civil conflict in Syria has lasted for 13 years, beginning with the March 2011 protests against the oppressive government.
• As Russia and Hezbollah are occupied with their own conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, respectively, the Syrian escalations are taking place.
• The military developments in the oil-rich Middle East are being closely monitored by markets for any potential impact on supplies and further trade disruptions along critical trade routes.

On Sunday, the more than 50-year Assad dynastic dictatorship was on the brink of collapse as rebel forces seized the capital of Damascus in a rapid offensive that swept the country's largest cities in a matter of days.

The defense forces of Russia and Iran-backed government have been struggling to stop the rebel advance that began with the rapid sweep of northern city Aleppo last week, breaking a years-long stalemate. The attack has been led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies, who have expanded their campaign to the south of the country and now also captured the key cities of Hama and Deir el-Zor.

"The city of Damascus is now free from the tyranny of Bashar al-Assad, as declared by Hassan Abdul-Ghani, senior HTS commander, in a WhatsApp post. To all displaced individuals worldwide, Free Syria is now ready to welcome you."

CNBC could not independently verify developments of the ground.

The whereabouts of President Bashar al-Assad, who took over in 2000 after his father's death, were unknown. Multiple media outlets, which CNBC could not verify, claimed he had fled Damascus. The Russian Foreign Ministry later confirmed that Assad had resigned from his presidency and left the country.

Syrian Prime Minister Ghazi al-Jalali stated that he stayed at his residence and was ready to maintain the continuity of Syrian administration.

""Syria belongs to all Syrians and its citizens, and it can be a normal state that builds good relations with its neighbors without forming any regional alliances or blocs. The matter is left to the leadership chosen by the Syrian people, and we are ready to cooperate with them by providing all possible facilitation," he said, according to NBC News reporting."

Geir Pedersen, the U.N. Special Envoy for Syria, emphasized on Sunday that the current situation in Syria represents a "watershed moment" in the civil war and urged for "stable and inclusive transitional arrangements."

The White House National Security Council Spokesman, Sean Savett, stated that several nations have evacuated their embassies amid the Damascus conflict, and outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden is closely monitoring the events and maintaining contact with regional partners.

Distracted allies

The advance on Damascus was prompted by the militants' capture of Homs, a significant chokepoint in the country's third-largest city, which poses challenges for the rebels, including confronting government forces and winning over local Alawite communities, according to Qutaiba Idlbi, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, on December 5.

"The rebels' advance toward Homs will test Russia's redlines in Syria. Russia has not provided serious military support to uphold Assad's defenses in areas he's losing to the rebels. However, Russia has conducted airstrikes in Idlib and Aleppo to counter rebel advances. Russia's restraint in Hama reflects its strategic calculations to avoid overextension."

The 13-year civil conflict in Syria began in March 2011 due to pro-democracy protests against the repressive government, which coincided with similar uprisings during the Arab Spring. The Assad administration responded with deadly force, resulting in calls for his resignation, widespread unrest, and the emergence of opposition groups. Despite peace talks led by the U.N. and by Russia, Iran, and Turkey, no progress has been made.

The escalations in Syria are occurring because Russia and Hezbollah, Assad's allies, are being distracted by their own battles in Ukraine and Israel, respectively. The Syrian conflict is contributing to the broader conflict in the Middle East, which began in October 2023 with a terror attack by Hamas in Israel, resulting in a military campaign and fire exchanges with Hezbollah, Yemeni Houthi, and Iran.

"The lightning-fast offensive in Syria is a significant shift in the conflict and highlights the regime's inherent weakness, according to Natasha Hall, a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She further noted that the fragile stasis collapsed as Assad's allies, Iran and Hezbollah, have been significantly weakened by Israeli military offensives, while Russia has been bogged down in Ukraine and unrest in Georgia."

In a recent update on his Truth Social platform, President-elect Trump stated that Russia, led by Putin, no longer wished to protect Assad and had lost all interest in Syria due to Ukraine.

The military developments in the oil-rich Middle East are being closely monitored by markets for any potential impact on supplies and further trade disruptions along critical trade routes.