Taiwan's presidential election sees victory of China critic Lai Ching-te

• Lai Ching-te of DPP received more than 40% of the popular vote, prompting his opponents to concede.
• China’s Taiwan Affairs Office dismisses Lai’s presidential vote victory.
• Lai has been consistently branded by Beijing as a "determined laborer for Taiwan independence" and a "perilous separatist."
• This action may lead to a deterioration of the relationship between China and the United States, as well as have a negative impact on security in the Indo-Pacific region.
• Beijing's preferred political partner, the Kuomintang or KMT, received approximately 33% of the vote.

Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party secured a third-straight presidential term, with incoming leader Lai Ching-te promising an open-minded approach to governance and a commitment to building consensus in a divided legislature.

Beijing was angered by the outcome of the presidential election on Saturday, which labeled Lai as a "stubborn worker for Taiwan independence" and a dangerous separatist. There are concerns that this could lead to a deterioration of China-U.S. relations and increase security risks in the Indo-Pacific region, as China has increased its military activity in the Taiwan Strait and other nearby waters.

Lai stated in a press conference that as president, it is his responsibility to ensure peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits. However, he also emphasized that he is committed to protecting Taiwan from any threats or intimidation from China.

In accordance with our democratic and free constitutional order, I will act in a balanced manner that maintains the cross-Straits status quo. Under the principles of dignity and parity, we will use exchanges to replace obstructionism, dialogue to replace confrontation, and confidently present exchanges and cooperation with China.

Since Tsai Ing-wen assumed office in 2016, the Chinese Communist Party has refused to engage with her. This is because Tsai has served the maximum two presidential terms and did not stand for re-election.

The DPP has rejected the "1992 Consensus," which was an unspoken agreement between the KMT government and Chinese Communist Party officials for "one China." Beijing considers this agreement as the foundation for cross-Straits engagement.

In his post-election comments in Mandarin, Lai mentioned the official name of Taiwan, the Republic of China, at least twice.

Taiwan's current vice-president, Lai, received more than 40% of the popular vote in the country's eighth presidential election. The DPP, which won the presidential office for the third time in a row, is the first party to achieve this feat since direct presidential elections were introduced in 1996. Beijing portrayed the election as a choice between "peace and war, prosperity and decline."

The Kuomintang or KMT, Beijing's preferred political partner, gained approximately 33% of the vote, with Hou You-yi leading its ticket. On the other hand, Ko Wen-je, the surly, straight-talking former Taipei mayor who ran under the Taiwan People's Party formed in 2019, received just over 26% of the vote.

Since the commencement of direct presidential elections in Taiwan in 1996, voter turnout has been the weakest, with only 71.9% of eligible voters casting their ballots for the presidential election this year, according to preliminary data from Taiwan's Central Election Commission.

Responses from China and the U.S.

Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party does not represent the mainstream public opinion, according to China, which dismissed the outcome of its Saturday elections.

The spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, Chen Binhua, stated on Saturday that Taiwan is China's Taiwan after the DPP's Lai was declared the winner.

According to a CNBC translation of a report from Xinhua, Chen stated that this election will not alter the fundamental pattern and growth of cross-Strait relations, nor will it affect the shared aspiration of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to draw nearer.

Since the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan following its defeat in the Chinese civil war in 1949, China has never renounced its claim over the island, which has been self-governing ever since.

The reunification of Hong Kong with the mainland is viewed by Chinese President Xi Jinping as a historical necessity.

The U.S. reaction was consistent with its previous stances.

Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, congratulated the Taiwan people for their robust democratic system and electoral process.

He stated that the US is dedicated to preserving tranquility and equilibrium across the Taiwan Strait and resolving disputes peacefully, without the use of force or pressure.

Commitment to consensus

The DPP lost its majority in the race for Taiwan's 113-seat legislature, resulting in a hung parliament that could hinder Lai's policy agenda and bring back the infamous squabbles among Taiwan's legislators.

Lai stated that the DPP did not maintain a majority in the legislative elections, indicating that they did not work hard enough and need to review their performance in certain areas.

The new Taiwan government will face challenges with voters prioritizing practical concerns, such as rising rents and home prices, which have been exacerbated by high inflation and stagnant wages.

Ko's popularity has been boosted by these issues, as he portrayed himself as a non-politician.

According to Wei-Ting Yen, an assistant professor in government at Franklin and Marshall College, the Taiwan People's Party received more votes than anticipated, with Ko obtaining 25%. This indicates that a substantial portion of voters still desire a change.

The Lai administration must tackle social and economic problems, as the social force demands it.

Lai stated that he will thoughtfully incorporate the policy suggestions and viewpoints of his two opponents to benefit Taiwan's interests at the press conference on Saturday after both opponents conceded.

Lai emphasized the importance of addressing the financial sustainability of Taiwan's labor and health insurance, as well as the country's energy transition, in his efforts to build consensus.

Lai stated that he would select the most skilled individuals and staff, regardless of political affiliations, in the spirit of a democratic alliance.

Lai stated that the elections have shown that the public wants a powerful government with efficient oversight. In terms of the new legislature's structure, Taiwan must establish a new political climate that emphasizes communication, consultation, participation, and cooperation.

Global strategic implications

Despite the DPP's comfortable victory in the presidential and legislative elections in 2016, Lai also considered the broader strategic significance of his electoral victory.

Lai stated that the Taiwanese people have successfully resisted external forces' attempts to influence the election through their actions. He added that the people of Taiwan have the right to choose their own president.

Beijing has been accused of vote interference in Taiwan's elections by the DPP-led government through military intimidation or by co-opting Taiwan's business elite due to their economic dependence on China.

In the lead-up to Saturday's vote, Lai stated that Beijing's interference is the most severe during these elections.

During the APEC leaders summit in November, Xi conveyed to Biden that Taiwan is the "most crucial and delicate" matter in the China-U.S. relationship.

The White House is preparing for multiple outcomes prior to Saturday's elections, as a senior Biden administration official stated. Biden has promised to defend Taiwan against a China invasion, a stance that has angered Beijing.

In 2022, Nancy Pelosi, the former U.S. House Speaker, became the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Taiwan in over two decades. Her trip caused communication between the world's two leading powers to halt before a tentative resumption only months ago.

Taiwan's victory in the 2024 election, one of the first and most highly anticipated, demonstrates the community's commitment to democracy. Lai stated, "We are sending a message to the international community that we will choose democracy over authoritarianism."