Russia's President Putin was not arrested in Mongolia last night, and now the country is facing consequences.

• On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Mongolia to meet the country's leader, discuss bilateral relations, and attend a gala reception.

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Mongolia to meet the country's leader, discuss bilateral ties, and attend a gala reception.

It is strange that Mongolia, being a member of the International Criminal Court, did not arrest the Russian president upon his arrival in Mongolia on Monday evening.

In March 2023, an international arrest warrant was issued by the ICC against Putin, accusing him of war crimes, specifically for the unlawful deportation of children from Ukraine to Russia.

The Kremlin characterized the ICC's actions as "outrageous and unacceptable" and stated that they had no impact on Russia, which is not a member of the ICC.

Under the Rome Statute, ICC member states are required to detain and surrender to the court any individuals who are subject to an ICC arrest warrant if they enter their territory.

Although the court lacks the power to enforce the rule, Mongolia disregarded it by giving Putin a guard of honor during his meeting with President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh in Ulaanbaatar on Tuesday.

Fadi el-Abdallah, a spokesperson for the ICC, informed the BBC last Friday that Mongolia had a "duty" to comply with the arrest warrant. If Mongolia did not cooperate, the ICC judges could make a determination and inform the Assembly of States Parties, who would then decide on any necessary action.

Experts cautioned Monday that Mongolia's inability to meet its ICC commitments could result in consequences, including the possibility of legal action.

Mongolia, as a State Party to the ICC, must comply with the arrest warrant for persons subject to an ICC arrest warrant, regardless of the reason for their visit to the country. This is a matter of upholding the rule of law and respecting the sovereignty of other states.

The IBA cautioned that Mongolia, a member of the ICC since 2002, could face "repercussions if it fails to cooperate." While the IBA did not specify what these consequences might entail, there is speculation that Mongolia could now be prosecuted by the ICC.

The Foreign Ministry of Mongolia has not responded to criticism regarding Putin's visit, and CNBC has attempted to contact them for comment.

Russia mocking the ICC

Before the trip to Ulaanbaatar, Russia appeared unconcerned about the possibility of arrests in a country where Moscow seeks to expand its regional power and energy networks.

Elena Davlikanova, a Democracy Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, stated that Russia's visit to the International Criminal Court (ICC) was intended to "mock" the court, with the economically dependent country serving as a deliberate test of the ICC's resolve.

Moscow had assured Putin that he would not be detained, so he would never have traveled if there was any chance of an arrest, she noted in analysis Monday.

"Russia and China's power have long constrained Mongolia's freedom of maneuver, so Putin's choice makes ruthless sense," she added.

The trip to Russia provided not only a distraction from Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk border region but also helped maintain Putin's image as a strong leader at home and abroad, while also undermining the ICC and any prospect of future prosecution of suspected war crimes.

Putin is willing to disregard international legal norms to undermine international law. Hungary and Armenia, both ICC members, have assured Putin that he would not be arrested on their soil, further diminishing the court's effectiveness. If the world order continues to weaken, the prospects for a tribunal for Russian war criminals, reparations, and accountability would significantly decrease, dashing Ukraine's hopes of a just peace, according to Davlikanova.

Consternation in Ukraine, Europe

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Heorhiy Tykhyi, stated on Monday via Telegram that "Mongolia is responsible for war crimes due to allowing an accused criminal to evade justice." He emphasized that Kyiv will work with its partners to ensure consequences for Ulaanbaatar.

Like all countries, Mongolia has the right to develop its international ties according to its own interests. However, Mongolia is a state party to the Rome Statute of the ICC since 2002, which imposes legal obligations on it. Commission spokeswoman Nabila Massrali stated this clearly via Mongolia's delegation on Monday, raising concerns about the visit and expressing the country's position on the ICC.

The move has been criticized by human rights campaigners, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, who are calling for Mongolia to arrest Putin.

Amnesty International Mongolia's executive director, Altantuya Batdorj, stated on Monday that Mongolia's legal obligations on the international stage are unequivocal.

Any trip to an ICC member state that does not result in President Putin's arrest will encourage his current behavior and be viewed as part of a strategic effort to undermine the ICC's efforts to prosecute suspected war criminals, according to Batdorj's online comments.