Russia received aid from Iran against Ukraine, and now Iran needs to repay the favor.

• Iran has been one of Russia's few loyal allies during the war against Ukraine, but now Tehran is under pressure as it indirectly battles its enemy Israel on two fronts.
• Russia could potentially provide aid to Iran, but the level of assistance is uncertain.
• According to Chatham House's Bilal Y. Saab, if the Russians withdraw from their partnership with Iran, it will have repercussions not only on their relationship with the Iranians but also with any other partners, including the Chinese.

Iran has been one of Russia's few loyal allies during the war against Ukraine, but now Tehran is under pressure as it indirectly battles its enemy Israel on two fronts.

Given its need for greater air defense capabilities and military intelligence to detect a highly-anticipated but yet-to-materialize direct Israeli attack on Iran, Iran could consider looking to Russia for help, analysts told CNBC.

The Islamic Republic may receive capabilities from Russia, but the level of assistance is uncertain.

According to Bilal Y. Saab, an associate fellow at Chatham House, the Iranians expect the Russians to provide them with something, and reputation plays a crucial role in international relations, even among authoritarian nations.

If the Russians withdraw from this agreement, it will have consequences not only with the Iranians but also with any other partners, including the Chinese.

"To maintain a reputation as competent, they must provide what they need. However, it is uncertain whether they will provide everything they need."

Saab stated that Russia is unlikely to provide military assistance to Iran against Israel due to its current involvement in Ukraine.

It's too risky to go against the United States over the Iranians, so I think they would stay on the sidelines and try to help from as far away as possible.

The Kremlin and Iranian foreign ministry have not responded to CNBC's request for comment.

'Strategic alliance'

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Iran and Russia's "strategic alliance" has deepened.

Moscow has been able to depend on Tehran as one of its few partners to supply it with military hardware, despite heavy sanctions.

Over 8,000 Iran-developed drones have been used by Moscow to attack Ukraine during the war, according to Kyiv, while Western officials accuse Iran of providing Russia with hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and helping to establish a drone factory in Russia.

Recently, Western officials have accused Iran of sending ballistic missiles to Russia and imposed sanctions on them.

Despite both countries denying drone and missile transfers, the U.S. has labeled Iran as Russia's "top military backer" due to arms transfers between the two allies. Tehran has admitted to sending drones to Russia prior to the start of the war.

Despite evidence of Iranian-made drones being used to attack Ukrainian infrastructure or being intercepted during the war, Russia denies using drones to attack Ukrainian targets.

Tehran is reportedly seeking to enhance its military capabilities by purchasing advanced Russian air defense systems and combat aircraft, although the specifics of the delivery of such hardware are unclear.

The delivery of Iranian drones and missiles to Russia for its conflict in Ukraine has significantly advanced the relationship between the two countries, with the war itself serving as a catalyst for their growing cooperation.

Russia has strengthened Iran's military capabilities by providing it with advanced conventional weapons, enabling it to achieve some of its defense officials' long-standing goals. In November 2023, Tehran secured deals for Su-35 fighter jets, Yak-130 training aircraft, and Mi-28 attack helicopters, though only the Yak-130s have been delivered so far.

According to John Kirby, the National Security Council Spokesperson, Russia has been providing Iran with an unprecedented level of military and technical support, which has transformed their relationship into a full-fledged defense partnership. Kirby stated in late 2022 that this partnership poses a threat not only to Ukraine but also to Iran's neighbors in the region.

In October 2024, Russia's desire to strengthen Tehran's military capabilities may decrease as its conflict with Ukraine continues, and Iran's capacity to provide Russia with weapons may be restricted.

Tehran is indirectly battling Israel through its regional allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, who are facing intense and prolonged Israeli attacks in Gaza and Lebanon, respectively, and are showing signs of significant weakness following the deaths of their leaders.

The "Axis of Resistance," consisting of factions and Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, is supported by Tehran to counter Israeli and U.S. influence in the region. The common antipathy towards the U.S. and shared goal of creating a "new world order" are what primarily unite Iran and Russia.

The upcoming BRICS summit in Russia may provide more clarity on the economic and strategic cooperation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian.

The strategic partnership agreement between the two countries, which began negotiations in early 2022, may be finalized at the forum. The details of the partnership are yet to be determined.

An alliance, with limits

Russia closely monitors Israel's military expansion in Gaza and Lebanon due to its own interests in the region, including military, economic, and geopolitical factors.

The region has generally maintained good relations, including with arch rivals Iran and Israel, as well as deepening strategic ties with Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The conflict between Israel and Iran's allies could be impacting Russia's interests in the region.

Israel's recent bombing of Iranian forces near Syria's Khmeimim Air Base, which has been operated by Russia since it supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government during the country's civil war a decade ago, is the most recent example of this.

What Russia would do to support Iran in the event of a wider and direct war between Iran and Israel is unclear, as analysts question the depth of their alliance and consider the fact that Moscow is already involved in the war in Ukraine, which requires a significant amount of manpower and military resources.

An Iran expert with the Russian International Affairs Council, Nikita Smagin, stated in an analysis on Monday that the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran is affecting Russian interests in the Middle East and endangering various Russian-Iranian collaborations.

Despite its preference to adapt to the evolving situation, Moscow will not directly involve itself in Iran's confrontation with Israel and the United States. Russia cannot and will not save Iran in this conflict.

Smagin stated that Moscow's war in Ukraine prevents it from engaging in another war, and Russia would only participate indirectly in a conflict with Israel if it weakened the U.S.

"Russia could potentially support Iran by providing weapons to Iranian proxy forces, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, if it would benefit the Kremlin to harm the United States rather than Israel, according to Smagin."