Russia is signaling a shift in its official stance on using nuclear weapons, accusing the West of "escalation."

• Russia has indicated that it may modify its nuclear weapons policy in response to Ukraine's ongoing incursion into its Kursk border region.
• Russia is updating its nuclear doctrine due to the West's role in the escalation of the war in Ukraine, as stated by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Sunday.

Russia has indicated that it may shift its stance on nuclear weapons usage in response to Ukraine's ongoing incursion into its Kursk border region.

Russia is modifying its nuclear doctrine due to perceived Western support for the escalation of the conflict with Ukraine, as stated by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Sunday.

Russia claimed that the West was responsible for the Ukrainian forces' cross-border raid, which has resulted in the seizure of over 450 square miles of Russian territory since August 6th. However, Ukraine's NATO allies denied any prior knowledge of the operation or involvement in its offensive.

Ryabkov stated on Sunday that work was at an advanced stage to modify Russia's nuclear doctrine regarding the employment of nuclear weapons.

Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine has led to a clear direction for adjustments, which are also influenced by the study and analysis of the experience of conflict development in recent years, including everything related to the escalation course of our Western opponents in connection with the SVO.

Ryabkov stated that determining the time for completing this work is challenging, given the significance of the aspects of national security being addressed.

Conditions of use

Russia's recent saber-rattling over nuclear weapons is not new, but Ryabkov's comments suggest that the Kremlin is preparing to alter its policy on the use of nuclear weapons.

The use of Western-supplied weaponry by Ukraine to target Russian military facilities and infrastructure has increased the likelihood of Moscow using nuclear weapons to protect its territory.

Russia's nuclear doctrine allows the country to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.

According to a Google translation of the document, other conditions that could determine the use of nuclear weapons by Russia include the "receipt of reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies," as well as "the enemy's impact on critically important state or military facilities."

Despite describing nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence in its 2020 policy, Russia emphasized that their use is an extreme and necessary measure. Russia's nuclear doctrine is defensive in nature, and it takes all necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat and prevent the aggravation of interstate relations that could provoke military conflicts, including nuclear ones.

If Russia's territorial integrity and sovereignty were threatened, Vladimir Putin has stated that Moscow would not hesitate to deploy such weapons.

In May, Russia conducted tactical nuclear weapons exercises near the Ukraine border and also positioned such weapons in Belarus, its ally.

Nuclear weapons designed for battlefield use can obliterate specific targets, such as military bases or training centers.

The use of such weapons would represent a significant increase in the conflict and raise fears of a direct confrontation with the West.

Putin has expressed his readiness to modify the circumstances under which nuclear weapons could be employed, declaring in June that Russia's nuclear doctrine is a "dynamic tool" that can be adapted.

It is crucial to define the conditions under which nuclear weapons can be employed, as well as the specific circumstances in which they can be utilized. Our nuclear doctrine outlines these details, and it is clear: nuclear weapons can only be used in exceptional cases, such as when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, in exceptional circumstances. Putin made this statement at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June.

Putin stated that he does not believe this moment has arrived, as there is no need. Nevertheless, this doctrine is a living instrument, and we closely monitor global developments. Putin also acknowledged that there is a possibility of making changes to this doctrine.

Incursion urgency

Since Ukraine's cross-border raid into the Kursk border region of Russia a month ago, Russia has been preparing its domestic and global audience for potential changes to its nuclear weapons policy.

Russia's foreign minister, deputy, and Kremlin spokesperson announced that changes would soon be announced in August.

Could Russia be considering using nuclear weapons against Ukraine in response to an embarrassing operation that exposed weaknesses in Russia's national defense?

In August, David Roche, president of Quantum Strategy, stated in an analysis that Russian military doctrine justifies the use of nuclear weapons if Russia's territorial integrity is threatened, and the scope for Russian retaliation is virtually limitless.

Roche stated that Ukraine's offensive in Kursk could make nuclear confrontation more likely as it "vitiates NATO's efforts to avoid 'escalation.'"

"Ukraine's invasion of Russia has destroyed most of the lower rungs on the escalation ladder that the Alliance and the U.S. sought to preserve," he noted.

Although Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 without provocation, it portrays the conflict as an existential struggle, alleging that the West is supporting Ukraine in an attempt to destroy Russia. However, Ukraine's Western allies in NATO deny this claim, stating that their military aid for Kyiv is aimed at defending the country's territorial sovereignty and independence.

Ukrainian officials hope that the incursion and crossing of one of Putin's "red lines" will alleviate Western concerns about the possibility of Putin using nuclear weapons and encourage more NATO allies to approve the use of longer-range missiles against targets within Russia.

The Institute for the Study of War dismissed Ryabkov's remarks, asserting Sunday evening that Russian officials are still using nuclear threats as a tactic to discourage the West from supporting Ukraine.

According to the ISW's analysis, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated on September 1 that Russia will modify its nuclear doctrine due to recent conflicts and the West's perceived escalation in Ukraine. However, Ryabkov did not specify any specific dates for these changes.

"ISW assesses that Russia remains highly unlikely to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine or engage in nuclear confrontation elsewhere, as Ryabkov did not specify any alleged changes to the doctrine."