Russia is reportedly providing African governments with a "regime survival package" in exchange for resources and research, according to a new study.
- The Wagner Group in Africa is working to strengthen Moscow's strategic relationships across the continent, as detailed by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
- The GRU, Russia's overseas military intelligence unit, has taken over the operations of the group following the death of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin last summer.
- According to the RUSI report, Russian government documents purportedly show a plan to intensify attacks on Western interests through the use of gained access.
A new report reveals that Russia's military intelligence service is providing African governments with a "regime survival package" that includes military and diplomatic support in exchange for access to strategically important natural resources.
The RUSI, a renowned defense and security think tank, revealed that the Wagner Group, which has recently rebranded, is working to strengthen Moscow's strategic relationships in Africa by providing regime security and geopolitical protection in exchange for valuable mining concessions.
The Defense Ministry of Russia did not respond to CNBC's inquiry about the report's findings.
For many years, Wagner has been a crucial element of the Kremlin's efforts to expand its influence in politically unstable countries in central Africa and the Sahel, including the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Sudan.
Since the demise of its previous leader Yevgeny Prigozhin last summer, the group's operations have been absorbed by Russia's foreign military intelligence agency, the GRU.
Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk, and Nick Reynolds, the report's authors, stated that the GRU separated Wagner's actions into two categories.
The Volunteer Corps, along with private military contractors such as Redut, provided a legal mechanism for Wagner fighters to sign up, and subsequently, the companies signed contracts with the Russian Military of Defense, placing them under GRU control.
The Expeditionary Corps takes over the dismantled paramilitary group's activities overseas and uses various companies as fronts for fighters to enlist, while also aiming to recruit and train local forces in territories where Wagner was active.
The plane crash that killed Wagner's mutinous leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and much of its top command was allegedly orchestrated by Andrei Averyanov, who leads this unit.
The RUSI report stated that Russian authorities evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of their Africa strategy after the defense ministry dismantled Wagner, following an unsuccessful coup attempt. According to leaked documents, there was a "plan to exploit access for a more focused assault on Western interests."
The report suggested that Russia could use its ties with Niger to threaten France's access to uranium mined in the country, thereby increasing France's reliance on Russian-supplied uranium in its energy sector.
The GRU is now promoting a "regime survival package" to elites in target countries, which includes military support, economic and political protection from backlash via the UN or other international mechanisms, and the support of political technologists to sell their popularity domestically.
The report detailed how the Expeditionary Corps in Mali provides personal protection to the president, ensuring consistent proximity to decision-making at the highest point of government, which is similar to the strategy deployed by Wagner in the Central African Republic.
In addition to closing off relationships with Western countries, Wagner was skilled at establishing domestic information channels to spread the Kremlin's message, as seen in the Central African Republic. RUSI pointed out that these efforts coincided with the aim of severing ties with partner militaries in countries where there were concerns about massacres or violations of international law.
Russian flags and messages of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin are frequently seen at mass protests in Africa, either in support of recent military takeovers or against traditional governments.
RUSI stated that as the U.S. focuses more on the Indo-Pacific and Ukraine dominates European attention, most African operations have become economy-of-force affairs.
The unequal allocation of resources and attention to Tigray compared to Ukraine or Gaza has caused a deep-seated resentment among Africans towards Western priorities.
The "apparent contrast" in Western rhetoric regarding destruction in Ukraine and Gaza has led many Africans to perceive a discrepancy between the values espoused by Western powers and those expected of partners on the continent.
RUSI believes that Moscow is taking advantage of the ongoing instability in Africa to drive migration into Europe and exacerbate political instability, as part of a strategic plan for unconventional warfare.
Recently, Finland closed its borders with Russia, claiming that Moscow was sending migrants to them due to Finland's NATO membership, a charge the Kremlin rejects.
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