Russia is facing humiliation as Ukraine gains more negotiating power with its advancing forces.

• Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russian border territory has left many questions unanswered, as few people in Ukraine were aware of the operation before it began a week ago, and its objectives remain unclear.
• According to a senior Ukrainian official, thousands of Ukrainian troops are currently operating within Russia, and hundreds of Russian prisoners of war have already been captured.
• Ukraine believes that the incursion will give it an advantage to obtain a "fair resolution."

The surprise incursion of Ukraine into Russian border territory a week ago was known only to a small group of officials in Kyiv, according to a senior Ukrainian official. Government officials have been instructed to remain silent about the operation's strategic goals.

Ukraine's initial silence regarding the cross-border raid, a tactic of "strategic ambiguity" aimed at keeping Russia "off balance," has been crucial to its success and current advances into the Kursk region. Russia's slow and sluggish response to what Russian President Vladimir Putin labeled a "large-scale provocation" has exposed weaknesses in its military command and humiliated its leadership.

A week after the launch of the border raid, details about the size and objectives of Ukraine's operation on Russian soil are becoming clearer.

On Sunday, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that the operation was intended to put pressure on Russia and push the war into their territory.

Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's top military commander, stated on Monday that Ukraine currently holds control over approximately 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of the region in relation to the Kursk operation.

On Monday, Putin received information from acting governor of Kursk region, Alexei Smirnov, via videoconference that Ukraine controlled 28 settlements. However, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War reported, based on geolocated footage, that Ukraine had control over approximately 40 settlements as of the same day.

According to a senior Ukrainian official, "several thousand" Ukrainian troops are currently operating inside Russia, and "hundreds" of Russian prisoners of war have already been captured due to being taken off guard by the launch of last week's operation.

The government official, who spoke to CNBC on condition of anonymity, stated that Ukraine has no immediate plans to reverse its course in Kursk.

The official stated that although they are not overly excited or jubilant about the latest operation in Kursk, it will have a significant impact on how the war continues to progress, similar to the liberation of Kherson in southern Ukraine in late 2022.

The source stated that a war of attrition was occurring on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine, and that Ukraine, with limited manpower and resources, would not be able to sustain such a position in the long run.

"If the Ukrainian troops are present in Russia, it may alter the course of the war and enhance our bargaining power during peace negotiations."

The official expressed little hope for immediate direct talks but suggested that an intermediary like Turkey or the United Arab Emirates could be involved in future mediation efforts.

The war continues, but it's a significant development for Ukraine's positions, morale, and the world's belief in Ukraine's capabilities, as the official stated.

"We have demonstrated once more that we possess the ability to astonish, execute sudden maneuvers, which are asymmetrical and unpredictable, thereby enhancing our strategic advantages."

Russia caught off guard

On Monday, President Putin pledged a "worthy response" to Ukraine's border raid, as 11,000 more civilians were evacuated in Kursk's neighboring region Belgorod due to "enemy activity."

Putin stated in a televised meeting with top security officials and regional governors, as reported by Reuters, that the Ukrainian armed forces are experiencing a sharp increase in losses, including among their most combat-ready units, which the enemy is transferring to their border.

Putin did not provide any details on Russia's response or how it would achieve its goals.

The Russian defense ministry initially downplayed the incursion but later corrected its statement, revealing that approximately 1,000 troops, along with numerous tanks and armored vehicles, were involved.

On Sunday, the Russian defense ministry admitted that Ukrainian troops had advanced up to 30 kilometers into Kursk and that the battle was still underway.

The evacuation of thousands of citizens in Kursk and neighboring Belgorod, as well as the redeployment of Russian troops and resources to Kursk from areas of intense fighting in eastern Ukraine, has certainly shaken Russian defense and government officials.

The government official stated that Ukraine did not seek to annex parts of Russia but aimed to use its current position as leverage to achieve a just peace more quickly.

The official clarified that Ukraine's actions are not aimed at seizing Russian territory. It is widely understood that this is not about annexing parts of Russia. Ukraine does not require that territory; they simply need Russia to withdraw from theirs.

What comes next?

The Kursk operation should be closely monitored as it could signal a significant advancement in the conflict.

Another possibility is that additional Ukrainian troops could be deployed to Kursk to bolster the operation, but this would mean sacrificing key frontline positions and leaving them vulnerable. The Ukrainian government emphasizes that its primary concern is safeguarding its soldiers.

The Kremlin's humiliation could result in a furious response from Russia following the incursion, with much of what happens next depending on their reaction.

The military sciences director at the Royal United Services Institute defense think tank, Matthew Savill, stated that Russia was "severely embarrassed" by the cross-border raid. However, the challenge for Ukraine is maintaining it.

Given the limited reserves available to Ukraine, sustaining a force of any size in Russia and defending against counter-attacks will be challenging, according to Savill in emailed comments.

It seems unlikely that the Ukrainians would want to sustain a large incursion for months, as they have reversed the public narrative about being on the defensive. They will have to make a decision about the best time to trade in the ground they have captured and to what end, he said.

David Roche, a seasoned investor and strategist at Quantum Strategy, views Ukraine's recent offensive in Kursk as a potential breakthrough that poses a threat to three vital Russian assets: the 415,000 residents of Kursk, two significant highways and railways that serve as the primary supply routes to Russian forces at the Kharkiv and Sumy fronts in northeastern Ukraine, and the Kursk nuclear power plant, which is a crucial energy source.

Roche stated that the Ukrainians must be concerned about the ultimate Russian response and the military logistics involved in a rapid advance, but he pointed out that the incursion had accomplished several strategic objectives.

The border raid was a humiliation for President Putin, according to him. It also brought the cost and reality of war home to Russian people. Roche stated that the border raid reversed the "terms of confrontation by showing war must be conducted on Russian territory in order to win."

Roche stated that the incursion demonstrated that Western anxieties about directly engaging in war with Russia and attacking within Russian territory, as well as concerns about escalation, were unfounded.

Roche stated that the West has been mistaken in compelling Ukraine to battle according to Moscow's guidelines.