Putin's decision to trust Xi could be the riskiest move of his nine years in power.

The decision of Chinese President Xi Jinping to intensify his strategic partnership with Russian President Vladimir Putin, only days before the latter launched his war in Ukraine, represents the most perilous and ill-advised move of Xi's nine-year tenure.

If Putin's military withdrawal, failure, or political ouster results from Europe's bloodiest conflict since World War II, it could pose the greatest threat yet to President Xi's leadership, occurring just before his 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in November.

Despite the expectation of a controlled outcome at Congress that would secure President Xi's third term and possibly a "leader for life," a Putin failure could trigger a reevaluation of Chinese leadership within the party, according to Kevin Rudd, the former Australian prime minister. Although Xi's control remains extensive, it is not absolute.

President Xi must consider the consequences of Putin's actions in Ukraine, as suggested by U.S. President Joe Biden in a significant speech in Poland.

"This man cannot remain in power, for God's sake," Biden stated.

In Brussels three days ago, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg labeled Xi as Putin's accomplice. He stated, "Beijing has joined Moscow in challenging the sovereignty of independent nations by choosing their own course." "China has provided Russia with political backing, including spreading false information and propaganda," he added.

The future of the global order and who will shape it is at stake in Ukraine's survival. World democracies must proactively seize this opportunity to counter Putin's challenge in Ukraine. Putin's failure in Ukraine could reverse the world's authoritarian trend, disrupt the Xi-Putin strategic alliance, and expose the inconsistency in Xi's global aspirations.

Xi faces a significant challenge in this crucial year for his legacy, as his self-inflicted, accumulating problems have caused a shift in the party's mood.

The Chinese president's judgment may be questioned on other fronts due to Xi's failure to predict Putin's military failures and escalating war crimes.

These include:

Deng Xiaoping's leadership approach of "hide your strength and bide your time" has been replaced by Xi's more assertive and aggressive global approach. Even Communist elites who are typically hostile to the United States are starting to recognize that a quieter approach to building Chinese military, economic, and technological power would have yielded better results than "wolf-warrior diplomacy."

The crackdown on the power and freedoms of China's private sector, particularly its technological giants, is backfiring. The loss of confidence and reduced foreign investments in China's private sector, which accounts for more than 60% of GDP, is slowing Chinese growth and reducing its competitiveness.

There are concerns among many of China's Communist party elite, particularly those of Xi's generation or older, about their own careers and futures if Xi is reappointed for a third term in November. There are rumors that Xi may bring in a new generation of leaders who will be more compliant, while he delays any discussion of successors.

The myth that Xi has mastered the Covid-19 pandemic, which has been a source of his leadership credibility, is being shattered. Chinese anxiety is increasing due to new outbreaks, leading to major lockdowns in Shenzhen and Changchun in northern China. Despite Xi's strict zero-Covid approach, China has low vaccination rates, particularly for booster shots, less effective vaccines, and unexpected economic difficulties.

On February 4, with the Beijing Winter Olympics opening and over 150,000 Russian soldiers massing on Ukraine's border, Xi and Putin issued a 5,300-word statement declaring that their new inter-state relations between Russia and China are superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era. They emphasized that their friendship has no limits and there are no "forbidden" areas of cooperation.

In this space, I wrote that the two leading authoritarians of our time have declared a common cause, possibly even a security alliance, with aspirations of shaping a new world order to replace the one created by the United States and its allies after World War II.

It is unwise to assume that Putin did not share his invasion plans with Xi prior to the move, or that Xi did not comprehend that the joint statement served as a green light for Putin's Ukraine war. Western leaders are misguided in believing that the time is right to distance Xi from Putin. Their argument is that reputational, economic, and domestic political considerations will inevitably alter Xi's calculations. Chinese officials were disheartened as the UN General Assembly voted 141-5 to demand Russia "immediately, completely, and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders."

Xi must weigh his desire to secure his northern border, access to Russian energy, and the benefits China gains from Russia's actions against larger strategic imperatives.

Despite Putin's weakened position, Xi would prefer to have him in power rather than no Putin at all, given the significant investment he has made in their relationship through numerous meetings since 2014. The potential consequences for Xi of Putin's removal are so severe that he will likely support a peace deal at the last minute, even if it leaves Putin far short of his maximalist goals in Ukraine.

In months, the democracies of the world have found purpose and unity, as Biden stated in Warsaw, despite Putin's setback for Chinese global interests.

—Frederick Kempe is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council.