Niall Ferguson warns that relying on sanctions to stop Russia could have disastrous consequences.

• Niall Ferguson of the Hoover Institution stated that although the Russians have incurred more casualties than anticipated, they are still making progress.
• Ferguson warned that the belief that the economic sanctions will cause the conflict to prolong and the US can remain idle may be incorrect.
• Anna Ohanyan of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace stated that while sanctions may influence Putin's behavior in the future, they cannot put an end to the violence.

Niall Ferguson, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, warns that the strategy of waiting for Russia's war machine to stop due to sanctions could result in a terrible outcome.

“It’s a highly risky strategy,” he said.

On Friday, CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" reported that the Ukrainian resistance will not be able to hold out for long, and Western sanctions will not be sufficient to stop Russia in time, according to a source.

He expressed concern that the U.S. is heavily relying on sanctions and delayed arms deliveries to Ukraine, and that those fighting for Ukraine may not be able to defend the country for long.

Despite the unexpected number of casualties, the Russians are still making steady progress, according to him.

Ferguson warned that the belief that the economic sanctions will cause the conflict to prolong and the US can remain idle may be incorrect.

Anna Ohanyan of the CEIP also expressed that sentiment.

According to Ohanyan, a nonresident senior scholar in CEIP's Russia and Eurasia program, while sanctions may eventually influence Putin's behavior, they cannot currently be relied upon to stop the violence.

Ferguson stated that the solution won't be quick enough to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine, and in his opinion, this is the main issue.

‘Nightmare scenario’

Russia's military advancements are outpacing the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies, which are crippling Moscow due to its invasion of Ukraine.

Ferguson stated that there is no assurance that Ukraine will remain intact, and the deteriorating situation in Ukraine is what he fears the most, along with the possibility of Ukraine's defenses collapsing.

"Putin will claim victory regardless of the sanctions' impact on Russia, which is the nightmare scenario for me," he stated.

Ferguson advised that the U.S. should aid Ukraine's defense without provoking a NATO-Russia war.

Efforts to aid Ukraine in its fight have intensified, with a "frantic" pace, according to the statement.

Ohanyan of CEIP stated that a proxy war may occur due to that.

Unfortunately, at this point, sanctions and military assistance seem to be counterproductive, she stated.

Opportunity for a deal

Ferguson stated that the U.S. is "missing an opportunity" by relying on sanctions.

If Kyiv is willing to accept neutrality and take NATO membership off the table, a deal can be made between Russia and Ukraine, he said.

Henry Kissinger proposed in a 2014 proposal that Ukraine should be a neutral country rather than trying to join NATO.

President Zelenskyy is open to the idea of a major shift in Ukraine's position in an attempt to prevent further destruction of his country, he stated.

This week, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine, told ABC News that he has "toned down" his stance on the issue of joining NATO.

Ukraine comprehends that NATO does not wish to admit it into the alliance, and as a result, the country will not make a plea to be accepted.

To prevent further violence and the devastation of Ukraine, Ferguson stated that peace is "immediately necessary," according to his assessment of the current Russian plan.

President Putin's goal is to prevent Ukraine from becoming a successful democracy that aligns with the West, either in NATO or the EU. He plans to achieve this by destroying Ukraine's infrastructure and turning it into a pile of rubble. Unfortunately, each passing day allows him to do more of this.

A diplomatic push is necessary to de-escalate, establish a cease-fire, and negotiate on larger issues, as agreed upon by Ohanyan.