Kyiv fears a Republican victory in the US election.

• Ukraine congratulated Donald Trump ahead of him winning the U.S. election Wednesday morning.
• Trump claimed he could end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in just 24 hours if elected, implying that he would cut off funding to Ukraine to pressure it into a negotiated settlement with Russia.
• If Ukraine does not resolve its conflict with its neighbor, it could end up in a "bad peace."

Ukraine congratulated Donald Trump ahead of his winning the U.S. election Wednesday morning, despite Kyiv's leadership seeing a Republican victory as a bad outcome for the country in terms of military aid and territorial integrity.

Early Wednesday morning, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the President of Ukraine, was among the first leaders to congratulate Trump, who declared victory in the presidential election. Later, NBC News projected him as president-elect, putting him on the path to become the 47th leader of the United States.

On X, Zelenskyy commended Trump on his "remarkable election triumph" and expressed hope that he and the ex-U.S. president, who has threatened to slash Ukraine funding promptly if re-elected, could cooperate towards resolving the conflict in Ukraine.

President Trump's dedication to the "peace through strength" approach in international relations aligns with the principle that can bring Ukraine closer to achieving just peace. Zelenskyy expressed optimism that they can implement this approach together.

If Republicans win control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate, they could easily block future military funding for Ukraine.

Trump had previously boasted that he could "end the war" in 24 hours if elected, indicating that he would withdraw funding for Ukraine in order to force it into a negotiated settlement with Russia. According to analysts, Ukraine could then be pressured into a "bad peace" with its powerful neighbor, and may be forced to surrender nearly 20% of its territory in the south and east, which is currently occupied by Russian forces.

Kyiv's ability to continue functioning as a state and fight Russia in the ongoing war depends heavily on international partners for military, financial, and humanitarian aid. The U.S. election and the future of that funding and support were viewed as a critical moment for Ukraine.

On Wednesday, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine anticipates a period of a powerful United States under President Trump's resolute leadership and that Kyiv maintains strong bipartisan support in the US.

A senior Ukrainian official stated to CNBC that a potential halt to U.S. funding for Ukraine by Republicans would be detrimental to Ukraine and that while Kyiv had its preferences among candidates, it hoped it could continue to rely on U.S. support until it achieved victory and a "just peace."

Trump against more aid

Trump has consistently criticized large aid packages for Ukraine and has harshly criticized Zelenskyy, calling him in June "the greatest salesman of any politician that's ever lived." He believes that Ukraine's requests for and receipt of U.S. military aid packages are a result of Zelenskyy's diplomatic skills, rather than Ukraine's actual needs.

Trump stated that he receives $60 billion each time he visits the country, which was the result of a contentious U.S. aid package negotiated by Republicans and Democrats and concluded in April.

It was widely agreed that a Trump administration and hardline Republicans would be less likely to grant Ukraine more funding ahead of the Nov. 5 vote. Trump's running mate J.D. Vance has been explicit in his opposition to further aid for Kyiv, arguing that the U.S. should encourage the country to strike a peace deal with Russia and that Ukraine should be prepared to cede land to Moscow.

The uncertainty created by a Trump victory is significant for both Ukraine and its international partners, as stated by Matthew Savill, director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute defense think tank.

Trump's desire for a quick deal with Zelenskyy may not lead to sustained U.S. support for Ukraine, especially given the current pressure on the country. Trump will face opposition from Congress, and there is significant skepticism about Ukraine among many Republicans, with a general U.S. focus towards China.

Savill commented via email that Russia will view Trump's potential victory as a motivator to maintain its numerical advantage. Meanwhile, Europe and NATO should assess how they can contribute more, while President Biden may utilize the remaining funding under Presidential Drawdown Authority, totaling over $5 billion, to support Ukraine in his final months in office.

During a heated presidential debate with Kamala Harris in September, Trump was repeatedly questioned about whether he desired Ukraine to win the war or if it was in the U.S.'s best interest for Kyiv to achieve victory.

He replied by stating that he wants the war to end in order to save lives and that he would seek to negotiate a deal with Russia. However, he did not specify how a deal would be reached or whether it would entail Ukraine surrendering occupied land to Russia, a concession that Kyiv has previously rejected.

Trump asserted that if he had been in power in 2022, the war would not have occurred, and Russian President Putin would not have lost 300,000 men and women in the conflict.

The exact number of Russian casualties in the war is unknown, as Russia and Ukraine do not disclose sensitive information. However, U.S. intelligence estimated in December 2021 that approximately 315,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded up until that point in time.