Ireland faces important decisions as voters go to the polls, with Apple, Trump, and a thriving budget surplus on the agenda.

• Ireland is heading to the polls, and it is predicted that center-right parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will again form the core of the country's next government.
• The winner of the Irish election will inherit a budget surplus and apprehensions that President-elect Trump may tighten U.S. corporations' tax payments in Ireland rather than in the U.S.
• Housing and homelessness have meanwhile emerged as key domestic issues.

On Nov. 29, Ireland will hold elections, and it is predicted that center-right parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will again be the main components of the country's upcoming government.

The Green Party and the historical rivals have held power together for the past five years, and recent polls indicate that they are still leading as the election campaign nears its end.

The leader of the country after the vote will have to deal with distinct economic challenges and prospects: Ireland has a budget surplus due to its role as a European hub for major U.S. tech and pharmaceutical companies, as well as a September ruling by the European Court of Justice that ordered Apple to pay 13 billion euros ($13.7 billion) in back taxes to the country.

In Dublin, there are worries that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may tighten U.S. companies' tax payments in Ireland rather than in the U.S.

Political angle

Despite some difficulties for Fine Gael, the country's two largest parties are once again on track to form a government, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll of Nov. 25. Fine Gael's support has fallen six points to 19% over the past two weeks, while Fianna Fáil's backing has increased to 21%.

In the previous general election, the Republican Party Sinn Féin gained significant support, currently holding 20% of the vote. Meanwhile, independent candidates are polling at 17%. Since Ireland uses proportional voting, a coalition is guaranteed if no party can secure a majority.

Despite the uncertainty about policy changes, it is likely that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will have a significant influence in a potential government.

The Central Bank of Ireland has warned in a recent report that Ireland's housing market has been under-supplied for over a decade, leading to a surge in rent and house prices, which has stretched affordability. The bank forecasts that around 52,000 new homes are needed per year out to the middle of the century, which is a 20,000 unit increase relative to 2023 supply.

Nearly 15,000 people, including 4,561 children, were in emergency accommodation in Dublin in September due to record levels of homelessness across the country.

Although there are worries about limited housing options, Emma Howard, an economist at TU Dublin, stated in an email to CNBC that Ireland remains appealing to workers due to its unique position as an English-speaking country with access to the European single market, as well as its younger and more educated workforce compared to other European countries.

Budget bonus

Despite seeking a bailout from international financial institutions over a decade ago, the country's finances are now in a strong position, with a budget surplus of up to €24 billion expected this year, thanks to a ruling by the ECJ.

In November, S&P Global Ratings upgraded its outlook on Ireland from stable to positive, stating that it could potentially upgrade its ratings to AAA if Dublin continues to strengthen its economic and fiscal buffers.

In 2023, 10 foreign-owned multinational enterprises were responsible for half of the country's corporate tax receipts, despite the report containing a warning for authorities.

If windfall corporation taxes are removed, Ireland's budget deficit will increase, and over the next six years, the government's spending plans will result in a deficit of €50 billion.

The appearance of clouds on the horizon could pose a threat to many U.S. companies.

Trump's return

The implementation of Donald Trump's "America First" policy has raised worldwide concerns about his return to the White House.

Dublin's corporate tax rate is among the lowest in the Euro zone, making Ireland a popular choice for American companies. However, incoming Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has criticized Ireland's trade surplus with the U.S. in October, threatening to end what he called "this nonsense."

The CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald will have additional direct responsibility for the U.S. Trade Representative's office under the incoming administration. President-elect Trump has business ties to Ireland and owns a golf club on the west coast of the European country since 2014. He has previously used the resort as a base during visits to Ireland during his first presidential term.