Iran's upcoming elections: A contest between anti-Western conservative factions

• Following the sudden death of former Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, Iran is conducting snap elections on June 28.
• The Guardian Council, Iran's ultra-conservative body responsible for finalizing the list of presidential candidates, has approved six candidates for the upcoming election.
• The vote occurs during a time of economic and popular dissatisfaction, under heavy Western sanctions, with escalating tensions with the U.S. and increased Iranian nuclear enrichment.

Following the sudden death of former Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, Iran is holding snap elections on June 28. However, the vote is not expected to be free or result in any significant change in the country, according to analysts.

The election will occur amidst a struggling Iranian economy, widespread discontent, and crackdowns on dissent, as well as high inflation, Western sanctions, escalating tensions with the U.S., increased nuclear enrichment, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.

The Guardian Council, which is responsible for determining who can run for president in Iran, has approved a list of six candidates. These candidates are mostly hardliners who hold strong anti-Western views, with one representing the reformist camp. Women who had applied to run for president were all excluded by the Council.

According to Behnam ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, only six out of 80 candidates passed the Guardian Council's vetting process. Out of these six, five are genuine hardliners and one is a token reformist.

Ayatollah Khamenei is Iran's "only significant 'voter'."

Ben Taleblu stated that he is seeking continuity rather than change, and half of the approved candidates have been penalized by Western governments.

'Relatively predictable' outcome

The upcoming election presented an opportunity for Iran's government to "course-correct" and improve its relationship with much of the Iranian populace, thereby improving its image.

In the aftermath of protests, crackdowns, and increased public dissatisfaction, Raisi's time in office has become synonymous with a lack of competitive elections. According to Nader Itayim, Mideast Gulf Editor at Argus Media, the leadership here had an option to create at least a semblance of a competitive election.

"In reality, it's still the hardliners' to lose," he said after Sunday's announcement of the approved candidates.

In the summer of 2021, Raisi was elected president of Iran during the lowest voter turnout in a presidential election since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979. He was viewed as a hardline right-winger who could potentially succeed the aging supreme leader Khamenei.

In September 2022, the 63-year-old Raisi intensely criticized the West and brutally suppressed the nationwide protest movement that emerged after the death of a young Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, while she was in the custody of Iran's morality police. As a result, hundreds of people lost their lives.

The upcoming election in Iran is likely to have low turnout due to widespread anger among Iranians who plan to boycott the vote, frustrated with a system they perceive as corrupt and incapable of addressing their economic hardships.

The Union for Secular Republic and Human Rights in Iran urged its members to actively boycott the presidential "show election."

The U.S.-led sanctions have frequently been accused of causing Iran's difficulties by the country's administrations.

The parliamentary election in March had the lowest turnout in Iran's history, with only 41% of the vote.

'Leadership is not that fussed about the turnout'

According to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, while Khamenei and other leaders are encouraging the public to vote, demonstrating its legitimacy through turnout is no longer a significant concern for the Islamic Republic.

The Islamic Republic acknowledges the significant disparity between the public's expectations and the system's performance, as well as the division in social liberalization, economic direction, and political prospects that the system cannot bridge. As a result, it no longer prioritizes its traditional method of electoral legitimacy, which it used in past elections.

"The government is attempting to hold a competitive election, but has evidently manipulated the candidate selection process to favor conservatives, ensuring a predictable outcome."

"If the past few elections demonstrate anything, it's that the leadership is not overly concerned with voter turnout," Itayim of the Mideast Gulf agreed.

"The organization hopes for higher attendance but is prepared for any outcome. It seems that they are content with the current situation and do not feel threatened by the growing dissatisfaction, protests, etc."

On June 28, Iranians who choose to vote will participate in the polls, with the possibility of a second round if the outcome is very close.

The 2021 Iranian presidential election was viewed as being manipulated to favor Raisi, Khamenei's favored candidate, according to Itayim. As a result, Khamenei feels more confident and powerful than ever at the age of 85.

Itayim stated that Khamenei seems to be following a path of consolidating power, regardless of the hardline or conservative camps.

"The upcoming election seems to be heading Iran further down the same path, based on the current candidates."