India treads a delicate path, cultivating ties with Ukraine as Russia looks on.

• Russia is likely to closely monitor Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Ukraine on Friday.
• As India seeks to balance its relationships with Russia and the West, the trip presents a challenge.
• India maintains strong trade and diplomatic ties with both sides in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which began with Russia's invasion in February 2022.
• An Indian head of state has not visited Kyiv in over 30 years, and Modi's trip is the first such engagement.

Russia is likely to closely monitor Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Ukraine on Friday.

India is in a unique position to broker alliances with both Russia and the West, as it has maintained strong economic and diplomatic ties with both countries since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

India has maintained tight trade and diplomatic ties with Russia despite condemnation for its role in the ongoing war with Ukraine. Despite Western efforts to boycott Russian oil purchases, India has continued to buy discounted oil from Moscow, whose revenues fund the conflict.

India is strengthening its ties with Ukraine through Modi's visit to Kyiv this week, at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This will be the first visit by an Indian head of state to Ukraine since diplomatic relations were established over 30 years ago, following Ukraine's independence in 1991.

Rick Rossow, a chair in U.S.-India policy studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated to CNBC that India has a stronger bond with Russia, but he wants to strengthen the nascent ties with Kyiv.

Rossow stated in emailed comments that India's goods trade with Ukraine in fiscal year 2021-22 was only around $3.4 billion, compared to $13 billion with Russia. Additionally, Russia provided access to high-end weaponry which other major producers like the United States have only recently approved for export to India.

The increase in India's imports from Russia after the invasion has been significant, despite Russia's challenges in fulfilling its defense export orders.

"He concluded that the relations between India and Ukraine are not insignificant, as India has students studying in Ukraine, buys defense equipment from Ukraine, and Ukraine is among India's 50-largest trade partners."

'Landmark' visit

Modi and Zelenskyy have not had a close relationship and have only met twice in the past year, during the G7 summits in Italy and Japan. An Indian official stated that Modi's upcoming visit to Ukraine is significant and will be remembered as a historic event.

On Friday, Modi and Zelenskyy will discuss "bilateral relations" and "multilateral cooperation" during their one-to-one meeting, while the ongoing war with Russia is likely to be a significant topic on the agenda.

The relationship between Ukraine and India is still in its early stages compared to the one between Moscow and New Delhi, which is now focused on strengthening their existing profitable ties, particularly in the areas of energy and trade.

In July, Modi met with Russian President Putin at the Kremlin, marking his first visit since 2019. During this encounter, Ukraine accused Russia of attacking a children's hospital in Kyiv, resulting in the deaths of 41 people and injuries to over 150 others. The attack drew widespread condemnation, despite Russia's denial of involvement and assertion that Ukrainian anti-missile fire was responsible.

In televised comments following his meeting with Putin, Modi expressed his disapproval of the attack, stating that "any person who believes in humanity is pained when there is loss of lives, whether it is war, conflict or a terrorist attack." (Reuters translation)

He added, "Even when innocent children are killed, the heart bleeds and that pain is very terrifying."

Despite the comments, Putin and Modi were seen hugging during their visit, and the New Delhi leader referred to their Russian counterpart as "dear friend" while praising their "mutual trust and mutual respect." Their discussions resulted in the leaders committing to strengthening bilateral trade and cooperation in multiple areas, including agriculture, space, medicine, and energy infrastructure.

The coincidence of Modi's meeting with Putin with the deadly hospital attack was widely seen as an embarrassment for the Indian prime minister. Ukraine heavily criticized the trip, with Zelenskyy saying it was a "huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hug the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day."

Pragmatism or peace?

Russia views India, alongside China, Turkey, and certain Middle Eastern nations, as a potential mediator in its conflict with Ukraine, although Indian media reports suggest the government is hesitant to take on such a role.

The prospect of a peace process between Moscow and Kyiv remains elusive, with the war still active and both sides far apart on the terms of a possible cease-fire. Ukraine demands that Russian troops withdraw from its land before any negotiations can take place, while Moscow maintains that it will not relinquish the four Ukrainian regions it annexed in late 2022.

V.P. Harsh Pant, Observer Research Foundation's vice president, stated to CNBC that India has a stake in using its influence to promote a future peace initiative.

Modi has always been interested in Ukraine because there is a strong Indian interest in ensuring a stable European security architecture that meets the aspirations of both sides, he said Tuesday on CNBC.

India has attempted to balance its response between Russia and Ukraine, Russia and Europe, and Russia and the West, according to Pant. He explained that there were practical reasons for India not to align with its Western partners and label Russia as an "aggressor" in the conflict.

India has its own interest in maintaining a stable relationship with Russia. India wants to ensure that Russia does not become a fully joint partner with China. Beijing is seen as India's regional economic and geopolitical competitor in Asia.

"Pant stated that India continues to seek Russian support in defense supplies, with 60% of Indian defense supplies originating from Russia. He explained that this prevents India from openly labeling Russia as an aggressor due to these issues."

India's foreign ministry has been contacted by CNBC for additional information on the reasons behind Modi's recent visit to Ukraine and the ministry's assessment of the current relationship with Russia.

Pant stated that Modi's visit to Ukraine highlighted India's wish for an end to the conflict and that both sides must negotiate. According to Pant, India believes that Russia's presence is necessary for a resolution, and without it, a solution cannot be achieved.