India's democratic decline is being questioned as Modi seeks a third term.

• With the general elections underway, it seems that India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on track to achieve a rare third term, after being in power for a decade.
• India's economic growth has been robust and its geopolitical standing in the world has risen under his leadership.
• Observers and critics have noted signs of democratic backsliding in the country during his leadership.

With the general elections underway, it seems that India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on track to achieve a rare third term, after being in power for a decade.

India's economic growth has been robust and its geopolitical standing in the world has risen under his leadership.

Observers and critics have noted signs of democratic backsliding in the country during his leadership.

An independent political researcher in New Delhi, Asim Ali, stated that Modi has positioned himself as an East Asia strongman, according to CNBC.

Ali stated that he is concerned about the mixing of religious nationalism with economic development being a central feature of his government, as he has also been referred to as "the high priest of India — that he is above all politics."

The V-Dem Institute's 2024 report stated that a third term for Modi could exacerbate the political situation due to the significant democratic decline under his leadership and the persistent suppression of minority rights and civil society.

Indian elections will occur amidst a growing trend of "legal attacks on critical journalists" and news outlets, according to a research group based in the United States known as Freedom House.

Milan Vaishnav, South Asia director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated that the "space for democracy between elections has shrunk" under Modi, according to CNBC.

"He stated that the liberal nature of India's democracy is becoming less visible due to the rise of majoritarianism, weakening of checks on executive power, and increasing intolerance towards dissent."

The BBC documentary questioning Modi's alleged role during the 2002 Gujarat riots was slammed by the government and social media platforms were blocked from sharing any clips of it.

According to Ali, many Indian mainstream media, particularly those that speak Hindi, have been "co-opted" to spread propaganda and deliver "the government message."

Frequently, India shuts down the internet to stem political protests and suppress criticism, according to rights groups, making it the country with the most internet shutdowns.

In a recent Newsweek interview, Modi referred to India as the "cradle of democracy" and discussed the challenges it faces.

"He stated that our media is crucial and that claims of decreasing media freedom in India are questionable."

The Bharatiya Janata Party and the prime minister's office declined to comment on CNBC's request.

Opposition 'witch hunt'

The National Congress party accused the Modi government of freezing its bank accounts prior to the elections.

The prime minister and home minister are responsible for this criminal action on the Congress party, according to Rahul Gandhi in a passionate criticism.

"He claimed that it was being orchestrated to cripple us before the elections, and that the people were being robbed of their constitution and democratic structure."

The Modi administration rejected the opposition's allegations.

"A witch hunt against opposition politicians has been pursued by previous governments," stated Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House.

The Modi government's actions are what makes it more alarming, as it has employed key levers of power to intimidate opponents, according to him.

The Supreme Court of India has granted an interim bail to Arvind Kejriwal, the chief minister of Delhi and a political rival of Modi, who was arrested in March on charges of bribery. Kejriwal is the leader of India's Aam Aadmi Party, which is a significant player in the opposition alliance.

Bajpaee stated that the timing of the announcement was "unusual" as it came just before the elections. The government seems determined to achieve its goal of securing 400 seats in the Lok Sabha, and is leaving no stone unturned, he added.

'Pro-Hindu party'

Analysts say that in the past ten years, Modi's BJP has become more confident in promoting its Hindu nationalist agenda, with the goal of strengthening its base among the Hindu community, which comprises 80% of India's 1.4 billion people.

Vaishnav stated that the BJP is a party that is openly committed to supporting Hinduism. Since taking office in 2014, and particularly after 2019, the party has made efforts to use legal measures, regulations, and civil society to advance its goals.

In January, Modi fulfilled a decades-long campaign promise by inaugurating a controversial temple in Ayodhya, at the site where an ancient mosque was demolished by a Hindu mob.

The temple issue is crucial in the Hindi-speaking region, particularly in energizing the Hindu voter base, according to Ali. Additionally, the government has employed "anti-Muslim" language during the election campaign, he added.

Recently, Modi was accused of hate speech for calling Muslims "infiltrators" at a rally, which was seen as a threat to India's secular constitution.

Bajpaee cautioned that the Modi government's "talk of a 'Hindu Rashtra' or Hindu nation" could "erode India's secular credentials" by demolishing the divide between state and religion.

Cult-like status?

Despite criticism of his hardline rule, Modi's popularity remains high due to his charisma and persona.

In a recent CNBC interview, Ronojoy Sen, senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, stated that there is no one in the opposition who can match that level of popularity.

The ruling party's powerful election machinery helped create a cult-like status around Modi, which allowed him to forge a direct link with voters.

If voters identify with Modi, it becomes hard to vote out the BJP.

Despite India's economic issues, such as increasing youth unemployment and widening wealth disparity, his populist approach remains popular.

According to a CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey, Modi was the most popular choice for prime minister among the respondents, with 48% of them selecting him, compared to his opposition rivals.

Sircar pointed out that India's economic growth was not necessarily worse before Modi took office. In fact, India was also experiencing rapid economic growth during Manmohan Singh's time in the 1990s, thanks to the economic reforms implemented under his leadership.

"The branding of everything has changed to reflect Modi's image."

The BJP's manifesto is referred to as "Modi Ki Guarantee" by Sircar, who noted that the entire political system is designed to attribute positive outcomes to the top.

'Big changes'

It is predicted that the prime minister and the BJP will easily win a third term in the upcoming election, as India lacks a strong opposition.

Bajpaee stated from Chatham House that a reelected Modi government will be "more assertive" in implementing "controversial economic reforms and its more polarizing identity-based agenda."

In a recent interview, Modi expressed confidence and stated his goal to make India a third economic superpower, while sharing his ambitious vision.

The Indian leader will flex his muscles to enact significant legislation on a strengthened mandate, according to Vaishnav.

He stated that Modi has already prepared the electorate to anticipate significant changes upon their return to power.