In trouble, RFK Jr.'s plan to aid Trump in three swing states.

In trouble, RFK Jr.'s plan to aid Trump in three swing states.
In trouble, RFK Jr.'s plan to aid Trump in three swing states.
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign and endorsed Donald Trump, stating that he intended to withdraw from swing state ballots where polls indicated that Trump would gain an advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in a direct contest.
  • But Kennedy's get-off-the-ballot strategy has not gone according to plan.
  • Kennedy's continued presence on the ballot in North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan limits the potential electoral advantage Trump could gain from Kennedy's departure.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. abandoned his independent White House campaign and backed Donald Trump in August, outlining a strategy to increase Trump's chances of winning in crucial battleground states.

Kennedy, who spent most of his campaign fighting for ballot access, announced on Aug. 23 that he would reverse course and remove his name from swing state ballots where Trump stood to benefit from a head-to-head matchup with Vice President Kamala Harris.

Kennedy stated that remaining on the ballot in battleground states would likely result in a Democratic victory, according to consistent polling.

But Kennedy's get-off-the-ballot strategy has not gone according to plan.

In North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Kennedy's name remains on the printed ballots as an option, despite his attempts to withdraw it.

The potential electoral boost Trump could receive from Kennedy's departure in these states is significantly reduced.

In Michigan, minor party candidates are not allowed to withdraw from the election. On Tuesday, a Michigan Court of Claims judge upheld the state's decision regarding Kennedy's challenge.

The Elections Commissions of both Wisconsin and North Carolina have decided to keep Kennedy on their respective state ballots. Kennedy has, however, filed a lawsuit to challenge this decision in North Carolina.

The stumbles of Kennedy in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Michigan are significant because they are among the few swing states where polling shows that Trump would have an advantage over Harris in a head-to-head contest, without Kennedy. The other two swing states are Arizona and Pennsylvania.

In Nevada and Georgia, polling suggests that Trump's lead may decrease if Kennedy drops out of the race, leaving only two candidates in the field.

If Kennedy remains on the ballot in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, Trump is unlikely to receive the increase in support from the Trump-Kennedy alliance that was anticipated.

Only Arizona and Pennsylvania remain as the states where Kennedy's departure could potentially aid Trump.

Despite being considered safely in Trump's favor, Kennedy withdrew from the race in Florida, Texas, and Ohio.

Despite Trump's unsuccessful effort to broaden the Republican voter base, Kennedy's endorsement could still benefit him in other ways.

Kennedy gained support during his contentious campaign by attracting undecided voters dissatisfied with the traditional two-party candidates. Trump is now attempting to use Kennedy's endorsement to bolster his argument to those same voters.

Trump stated at the Arizona rally in August that Kennedy had received a significant number of votes.

"He will likely have a significant impact on this campaign."

As of Tuesday afternoon, RCP's polling average showed Trump trailing Harris by 1.9 percentage points in a national head-to-head matchup with 63 days until Election Day.

by Rebecca Picciotto

Politics