If Trump wins the White House, RFK Jr. will have a major role in healthcare, which could impact patients and drugmakers.

• If Donald Trump wins the presidency, he has stated that he will assign Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist, a significant health role.
• Some experts warned that elevating Kennedy to an informal role in the Trump administration could have severe consequences for patients, drugmakers, and the nation's public health overall.
• Experts warned that lower vaccination rates, an increase in preventable diseases, and greater distrust in federal health agencies could potentially occur.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a notorious vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist, is the person that Donald Trump has promised to help take up the government's health reins if he wins the presidency.

The former president announced last week that Kennedy, who ended his own independent White House campaign earlier this year and endorsed Trump, will have a "big role" in health care in his administration. Trump stated last month that he would allow Kennedy to have "free rein" on health, food, and drug regulation.

The prospect of elevating Kennedy, even in an informal role, has raised concerns among health experts about the potential consequences for patients, drugmakers, and the nation's public health.

"Dr. Paul Offit, a vaccine expert at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, believes that if Kennedy were to become president, the world would be turned upside down. According to Offit, things would not be grounded in scientific truth, but rather in what Kennedy or his followers believe. This would lead to a free-for-all, with uncertainty, instability, and chaos."

Could potentially look like lower vaccination rates, increases in preventable disease, and greater distrust in federal health agencies, such as the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, he said "chaos" could potentially look like.

The U.S. faces numerous public health challenges, including declining childhood vaccination rates and a low life expectancy at birth, according to a 2023 report by The Commonwealth Fund.

Kennedy, lacking medical or scientific qualifications, contends that drug corporations and the federal health agencies that oversee them are detrimental to public health. He has proposed removing certain vaccines from the market, a viewpoint that Trump did not dismiss on Monday.

The former environmental lawyer may also introduce uncertainty to the pharmaceutical industry, which depends on federal health agencies to approve new products, maintain old ones on the market, and sometimes fund research and development. It may be challenging for Kennedy to alter the drug approval process, but experts believe he could utilize his new platform to politicize certain treatments he opposes and promote others that have not been proven to be safe and effective.

The FDA commissioner is one of the top leadership roles that require Senate confirmation, which could present a challenge for Kennedy. However, Kennedy has met with Trump transition officials and may opt for a broad "health czar" position that does not require Senate confirmation, according to the Washington Post.

Kennedy is likely to gain a new platform to express his opinions, according to Drew Altman, CEO of health policy organization KFF.

"The president is giving a national platform to a chief architect of health misinformation, which could increase the spread of false information and harm people's health."

Kennedy's team did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.

Vaccine rhetoric and uptake

Regardless of whether he holds a major role at a federal health agency, a second Trump term could enable Kennedy to intensify his opposition to vaccines.

Experts warned that discouraging Americans from getting Covid shots and routine vaccinations could lead to a decline in the number of people receiving vaccinations against diseases that have saved millions of lives and prevented disabilities for decades.

"According to Genevieve Kanter, an associate professor of public policy at the University of Southern California, normalizing people and parents who opt out of the vaccination schedule by elevating their message could lead to a decline in vaccination rates among children and overall."

During the pandemic, routine vaccination rates for kindergarten children decreased and have not fully recovered. If Kennedy further lowers these rates, there is a risk that vaccine-preventable diseases such as polio and measles could resurface, according to experts.

Lower revenue could result for drugmakers such as Pfizer and Moderna if there is an increase in anti-vaccine rhetoric among companies that manufacture shots. These companies are still recovering from falling Covid vaccination rates in the U.S., which have negatively impacted their profits over the past two years.

If Kennedy were given the power to decide how much federal funding should go towards vaccine development for another pandemic, it may affect the pharmaceutical industry's ability to respond, some experts say. Kennedy previously stated on NBC News that he wouldn't prioritize vaccine research, manufacturing, or distribution if faced with another pandemic, falsely claiming that "vaccines have probably caused more deaths than they've averted."

Kennedy has a history of being a vaccine skeptic, making false and misleading statements about their safety, such as claiming a link to autism despite scientific evidence debunking the association. He founded the Children's Health Defense, the country's most well-funded anti-vaccine organization.

Offit stated that he misinforms children to the point that they suffer or die, and he does not take any responsibility for it.

Kennedy's misinformation about the safety of the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine was highlighted by him, as it was linked to a severe measles outbreak in Samoa in 2019 that resulted in the deaths of dozens of children.

Regulatory process at the FDA, CDC

Changing the approval, recommendation, and regulation of vaccines and other treatments would be more challenging for Kennedy, even if he were in a leadership role at the FDA, CDC, or the Department of Health and Human Services, which oversees both agencies.

That could be good news for both patients and drugmakers.

"According to USC's Kanter, approval processes are well-defined and managed by civil servants. While the FDA commissioner may not have significant influence over day-to-day product approvals, the FDA's organizational structure and role ensure that the process remains consistent."

The FDA and CDC rely on advisory panels composed of outside experts to make recommendations for vaccine approval, use, and coverage under federal health plans, as well as for other treatments and medical devices.

The American Public Health Association's executive director, Georges Benjamin, stated to CNBC that Kennedy could attempt to fill the committees with individuals who share his views on vaccinations and treatments to undermine the "conventional regulatory supervision that safeguards us."

If people sympathetic to Kennedy's views join the advisory committees, many states that rely on their recommendations for vaccination schedules and mandates could choose to ignore them.

The execution of Kennedy's other proposals for revamping federal health agencies may be challenging. Although he has suggested reducing funding or staffing at the FDA, any such changes would require approval from Congress.

Kennedy announced on X last week that the FDA's "war on public health" was coming to an end and suggested that he planned to remove workers who disagreed with his views.

The agency was accused of aggressively suppressing various substances that promote human health, such as psychedelics, peptides, stem cells, raw milk, hyperbaric therapies, chelating compounds, ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, vitamins, clean foods, sunshine, exercise, and nutraceuticals, which cannot be patented by Pharma.

Kennedy has previously asserted that hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin are effective against Covid, despite evidence from multiple studies indicating otherwise. Hydroxychloroquine is an immunosuppressive medication, while ivermectin is used to treat infections caused by parasites.

Kanter stated that he has adopted several therapies that lack scientific evidence for specific applications and some have been proven to be ineffective.

Chronic diseases

Both Kennedy and Trump have advocated for addressing the root causes of chronic diseases instead of solely relying on pharmaceutical industry treatments. However, there is limited information on how this would impact drug manufacturers, and experts have criticized Kennedy for promoting false information regarding the factors that contribute to chronic illnesses.

The ongoing medical attention required for chronic diseases, which last one year or more, is a significant issue in the U.S.

In America, a growing number of individuals are grappling with multiple chronic health conditions, with approximately 42% of the population having two or more, according to the CDC. Additionally, over 40% of school-aged children and adolescents in the U.S. have at least one chronic disease. Some of the most prevalent chronic diseases in the U.S., including heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and obesity, contribute significantly to healthcare costs, accounting for roughly 90% of the $4.1 trillion annual healthcare expenditure, as stated by the CDC.

Sources close to the former president's campaign revealed that Kennedy could lead "Operation Warp Speed for childhood chronic disease" under a Trump administration, referring to the title of the Covid vaccine development and distribution project during Trump's first term.

The new program or Kennedy's role is unclear, but his focus on chronic illnesses aligns with his "Make America Healthy Again" platform.

The initiative, which echoes Trump's Make America Great Again slogan, aims to eliminate chemicals from food production, combat the root causes of chronic diseases, and eliminate conflicts of interest in medical research, among other priorities that have broad bipartisan support. However, Kennedy has made unfounded claims about certain food ingredients and minerals, which may not be supported by scientific evidence.

Kennedy previously suggested that all U.S. water systems should remove fluoride from drinking water, stating that it is a "waste product" linked to health issues such as thyroid disease and neurodevelopmental disorders. Trump has expressed support for this idea.

Fluoride, a naturally occurring mineral in soil, water, and plants, is widely regarded as one of the greatest public health achievements of the 20th century due to its ability to prevent tooth decay when added to drinking water in low levels.

USC's Kanter stated that oversimplifying complicated health problems and attributing them to a few "root causes" is a danger, especially when these causes aren't supported by scientific evidence. Chronic diseases are complex conditions that can be caused by multiple factors, including genetics and socioeconomic status, according to Kanter.

Kennedy's nonprofit falsely claims that vaccines cause chronic diseases, using misleading research that shows unvaccinated people have fewer chronic conditions than vaccinated individuals.