France's Macron will now have less influence in Europe.
- The failed snap election of French President Emmanuel Macron is predicted to have a significant impact on his political aspirations and legacy, according to analysts.
- In recent years, he has sought to weaken the power and influence he has built in Europe.
- The far-right National Rally was expected to win the final round of the snap parliamentary election in France last weekend, but the leftwing New Popular Front alliance pulled off a surprise victory.
- Macron now faces the possibility of working with a coalition or technocratic government led by a political opponent.
The failed snap election of French President Emmanuel Macron is predicted to have a significant impact on his political aspirations and legacy, as well as weaken his efforts to establish his influence in Europe.
The far-right National Rally party was expected to win the final round of a snap parliamentary election in France last weekend, but the left-wing New Popular Front alliance surprised everyone with a victory.
Emmanuel Macron, who will continue as president of France until 2027, must now work with a coalition or technocratic government and a left-wing NFF prime minister, which may make it challenging to pass legislation and implement reforms.
The snap poll that Macron took did not yield the desired results, and it has negatively impacted his political standing and legacy in Europe, where he has aimed to establish himself as a key leader.
Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, stated on CNBC Monday that his legacy will result in a significant political battle.
Fordham stated on CNBC's Squawk Box Europe that Macron remains the dominant figure and decision-maker, as he will select the prime minister and attend the 75th NATO summit in Washington this week. However, Fordham argued that those suggesting Macron's gamble was successful are mistaken.
She added, "Although he managed to prevent the far right from winning first place, their seat share has increased, and now he must handle the unruly left and right."
She added, "I'm afraid it probably weakens him on a global stage at a time which is unfortunate for the cohesion of the European Union."
Macron looked to be the EU's leader
Since the departure of his predecessor, former Socialist President Francois Hollande, and the subsequent departure of the European Union's most influential leader, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Macron has made an effort to position himself as a key player in Europe's political decision-making.
Macron has advocated for closer political and economic integration in the EU, emphasizing the importance of European sovereignty, economic security, and competitiveness, while also pushing for a more autonomous and integrated European defense strategy that supports the idea of a "true, European army."
Macron is known for establishing the European Political Community, which brought together leaders from 50 states in the region to address common challenges and coordinate joint responses. Additionally, he has been a strong advocate for Ukraine, pushing for increased support from Germany and other NATO members, including the provision of Western weapons to Kyiv to defend against Russian aggression.
He suggested that French troops could assist on the ground, although it was met with controversy, despite other allies' promises.
In the coming months, France's political landscape is uncertain, but it is likely that the country will undergo weeks of political maneuvering and possible stalemate as the left-wing party positions itself to form a new government and name one of its own members as prime minister.
Macron may face pressure to choose a left-wing PM, such as Hollande, who won the largest number of seats in the election.
On Monday, Macron requested that Gabriel Attal remain as Prime Minister to maintain stability in the country.
The political instability in France, which is the second-largest economy in the euro zone after Germany, is not beneficial at this time in the global political cycle, according to Ludovic Subran, the chief economist at Allianz, who spoke to CNBC on Monday. Subran emphasized the importance of Macron being aligned with the future prime minister.
France is not in a weak position now, but it is not good because we are in a state-craft situation with the U.S. and China. If Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gets re-elected in November, we will be tested repeatedly.
"Subran stated that it would be crucial for Macron to secure the agreement of his prime minister before making any statements in Brussels or Strasbourg. He emphasized that Macron must ensure a thin line of separation between himself and his prime minister on international issues such as Russia, trade, industrial policies, and flexible fiscal policies for France and other member countries in Europe."
Subran stated that it would be challenging for Macron to promote ambitious plans for Europe and give lectures on the subject while facing domestic weakness.
If Marine Le Pen becomes the leader in 2027, it will be a tainted legacy.
Mixed legacy
Macron's legacy at home may be mixed after the snap election, which was seen as a strategic miscalculation due to his perceived lack of understanding of voter sentiment and arrogance.
He frequently receives criticism for not comprehending the daily struggles of many French people, particularly those residing in rural areas.
The "Yellow Vest" movement that arose in 2018 was mainly driven by the anger of significant segments of the population towards the increasing cost of fuel, living expenses, and economic disparity, as well as their perception of an indifferent, elite political class.
The surge of the National Rally party is indicative of voter anxieties about immigration and the perceived loss of French identity and culture.
In June, he made the bold move to call a snap election following the defeat of his centrist Renaissance party in the European Parliament elections. However, this decision has not yielded the desired results, and the uncertain political climate in France may cause tension among its European partners, according to a French political scientist speaking to CNBC.
What is the EU and France's international partners and allies likely thinking about the decision to call a snap election? According to Philippe Marlière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, this was said before the final round of the election on Sunday.
"If France fails to be a dependable ally in the EU on major global issues, people will remember that it was Macron who caused the problem."
In France, most people believed that Macron had created a political mess, according to what he told CNBC.
"In France today, everyone is saying that the decision to dissolve parliament was a major cock-up. No one has yet expressed a positive opinion about it. It was an unnecessary gamble that backfired. Although he did not have an absolute majority before the dissolution of parliament, his party was the main party in the National Assembly. Therefore, it is unclear why he felt the need to dissolve parliament."
Marlière gave it a 10 out of 10 on a scale of political blunders.
Politics
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