Following the rise of France's right-wing, parties are working to prevent a victory by the National Rally.

• The far-right National Rally is facing opposition from left-wing and centrist parties in France during the ongoing parliamentary election.
• On Sunday, the first round of the vote revealed that the far-right National Rally had the highest number of votes.
• Discussions of tactical voting and deal-making between centrist and left-wing parties have arisen due to the outcome of the first electoral round.

The National Rally is facing opposition from left-wing and centrist parties in France as they attempt to prevent the far-right faction from winning the ongoing parliamentary election, according to analysts, after support for the National Rally surged in the first electoral round on Sunday.

On Monday morning, figures from the French Interior Ministry revealed that the National Rally (RN) and its allies had obtained a combined 33.1% of votes, while the New Popular Front (NFP) alliance gained 28% and French President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Together bloc received 20%.

Discussions among left-wing and centrist politicians have arisen regarding ways to reduce the number of parliamentary seats held by the RN in the second round of voting on July 7, following the outcome of the first round.

Gabriel Attal, a Macron ally and French Prime Minister, wrote on social media platform X late on Sunday that our objective is to prevent the National Rally from having an absolute majority in the second round, from dominating the National Assembly, and from governing the country with the disastrous project it has.

He emphasized that not a single vote should go to the National Rally, stating it with the urgency of the moment.

Tactical voting in the second round

Typically, French parliamentary elections occur in two rounds, requiring parties to obtain at least 12.5% of votes in a constituency to advance to the final runoff.

Deutsche Bank analysts predict that over half of the 577 parliamentary seats will go to the second round, with tactical voting now likely, in a note released on Monday.

Politicians from different left-wing and centrist parties are urging candidates who finished third in races against far-right candidates to withdraw from the election, in an attempt to unite their support against RN.

The election's final result will be determined by negotiations between left-wing and centrist parties, according to Mujtaba Rahman and Anna-Carina Hamker of the Eurasia Group, who made this statement on Sunday.

The outcome of the upcoming election will depend on a race between the left alliance and the defeated center to form alliances and prevent RN from winning in the second round next Sunday, according to sources.

The possibility of forming "Republican fronts" to defeat RN candidates who barely won in the first round is high due to the significant number of seats with three candidates still in the running, according to Rahman and Hamker.

The far right may still pose a challenge to efforts to defeat them, even if other factors are taken into account, such as differences in voter turnout and the effectiveness of tactical voting.

Three scenarios

Pascal Lamy, Vice President for the Paris Peace Forum and former director general of the Wolrd Trade Organization, expressed uncertainty about what lies ahead on Monday when speaking to CNBC.

""The second round is uncertain with many three-candidate races being very close," he stated."

According to Lamy, three possible election outcomes are still being considered: a far-right majority in parliament, a hung assembly, or a coalition with the far right.

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg emphasized the second scenario.

On Monday, he stated that the most probable result is a hung parliament where neither the far-right, the united left, nor Macron's centrists can achieve a majority. As a result, any new government would be unable to accomplish much.