Experts believe that Elon Musk, despite not being Henry Kissinger, could potentially enhance U.S.-China relations.

• According to Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, there has been significant interest in China about the possibility of Musk serving as the new Kissinger and facilitating a deal between Washington and Beijing.
• Wang Huiyao of the Center for China and Globalization stated that even the wealthiest businessman in the world would not be able to improve relations as effectively as Kissinger did in the past.
• Dewardric McNeal of Longview Global stated that while it is true that China has occasionally used influential Americans as unofficial channels, it is a stretch to view Musk as a modern-day Kissinger.

Experts advise against relying too heavily on Elon Musk's relationship with Donald Trump to predict changes in the U.S. President-elect's policy stance towards Beijing.

One of Trump's top campaign donors, the billionaire, was reportedly in contention for a cabinet or advisory role at the White House.

Beijing's interest in the relationship between Musk and the upcoming elections was sparked by Musk's close ties to China, where his company, Tesla, operates a large "gigafactory."

According to Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business & Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, there has been widespread curiosity in China about whether Musk could be the new Kissinger, helping broker a deal between Washington and Beijing in the past few months.

It is unclear whether the Chinese want to believe this is a realistic scenario or an unrealistic way to avoid conflict.

Henry Kissinger, a U.S. diplomat who passed away, is known for normalizing relations between the U.S. and China, starting with his visit to Beijing in July 1971.

In July 2023, just months before his death in November 2023, Kissinger met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing to promote warmer relations between the two countries.

The possibility of Musk filling the void left by Kissinger has emerged as he continues to interact with top Chinese officials, having successfully established Tesla as the country's first entirely foreign-owned automaker in 2018.

During his recent visit in April, the CEO of both Tesla and SpaceX met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who cited Tesla as an illustration of successful trade cooperation between Beijing and Washington, as reported by state media.

Renmin University's Institute of International Relations Director Wang Yiwei stated to CNBC that Musk is perceived as a businessman with expertise in both China and the U.S.

Wang expressed hope that Musk's manufacturing work could facilitate a deal for Chinese companies to construct factories in the U.S., which could potentially ease or even cancel the strict tariff hikes Trump has threatened to impose on China-made products.

The Biden administration has introduced several policies to attract high-end tech manufacturers back to the U.S., which are likely to be upheld by Trump. Meanwhile, Musk has expressed worries about the tensions between the two countries and has criticized the Biden administration for imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs earlier this year.

Businessman, not a diplomat

According to Wang Huiyao, founder of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization, one businessman, even the wealthiest in the world, will not be enough to improve U.S. policy relations the way Kissinger was once able.

A group of prominent business and thought leaders, including Elon Musk, Apple's Tim Cook and Blackstone Group's Stephen Schwarzman, can act as a "group of Kissingers."

Although they may not have the same impact as Kissinger, they could still help stabilize relations during the more complex period.

Beijing frequently showcases Cook and Schwarzman as positive examples of China-U.S. business and trade relations.

Longview Global managing director and senior policy analyst Dewardric McNeal stated on CNBC that while China has occasionally used influential Americans as unofficial channels, it is a stretch to consider Elon Musk a modern-day Kissinger.

The primary responsibility of informal intermediaries is to shareholders, not to national interests, according to him. He also stated that engaging in active political involvement can result in conflicts of interest and subject business leaders to intense scrutiny if diplomacy fails.

Steve Wynn, an entrepreneur and real estate developer, was targeted by China during Trump's first term as they attempted to establish "back channels" in an effort to influence policy, according to McNeal.

The lawsuit against Wynn as a foreign agent was issued by the Justice Department after efforts to change Trump's approach to China appeared to have little effect.

Trump has declared plans to impose a tariff of between 10% and 20% on all imports, as well as additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods imported from China.

According to McNeal, opening certain doors may be possible with Musk, but not those that require hard-nosed committed diplomacy. He warned that relying on such a figure, whose primary loyalty is to his own ventures, for diplomatic hopes could be a miscalculation.

"Musk's unpredictable views and sometimes controversial opinions don't necessarily align with either country's diplomatic or strategic interests."