Economists predict that the Fed will increase interest rates, regardless of whether Biden's nominees are confirmed.

Economists predict that the Fed will increase interest rates, regardless of whether Biden's nominees are confirmed.
Economists predict that the Fed will increase interest rates, regardless of whether Biden's nominees are confirmed.
  • According to economists, confirming President Biden's Fed nominees is not due to concerns that the central bank will not act to control inflation.
  • If Sarah Bloom Raskin, Lisa Cook, and Philip Jefferson are not yet confirmed, it is still likely that the Fed will raise interest rates to combat inflation.
  • Concerns have been raised by the White House and top Democrats that the Fed board of governors may not be fully staffed, potentially weakening the central bank's ability to combat rising prices.
  • Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics stated that while he believes there are numerous reasons for approving the nominees, fighting inflation should not be the top priority.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell leaves a meeting in the office of Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., in Hart Building on Wednesday, October 6, 2021.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell leaves a meeting in the office of Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., in Hart Building on Wednesday, October 6, 2021. (Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images)

Concern that the Federal Reserve won't act to control inflation should not be a reason to confirm President Joe Biden's nominees.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the confirmation of Sarah Bloom Raskin, Lisa Cook, and Philip Jefferson by the Senate, it is predicted that the Fed will increase interest rates next month to combat inflation, according to three economists interviewed by CNBC.

According to Jason Furman, who served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama administration, the Fed is planning to increase interest rates in March. The only uncertainty is whether they will raise them by 25 or 50 basis points.

Recent concerns raised by the White House and top Democrats about a fully staffed Fed board of governors losing its edge on rising prices are politically motivated, according to economists. The urgency behind this messaging is not tied to the Fed's chances to quell inflation, which are not dependent on the confirmation process.

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The ongoing Republican boycott is hindering the Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee from advancing all five of the president's Fed nominees, including Chair Jerome Powell and Lael Brainard.

The GOP claims that their blockade is due to their concerns about Raskin's views on climate policy and her past work with fintech company Reserve Trust.

Economists predict that the Fed has the ability to control inflation, despite the uncertainty in politics.

Fed has already signaled several rate hikes, which should provide comfort to lawmakers.

Furman, a Harvard University professor of economics, believes that the nominees, Raskin, Cook, and Jefferson, will not significantly alter the direction of monetary policy in the near future.

The White House directed CNBC to a statement made by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in January regarding the president's candidates.

Yellen stated on Jan. 14 that she was confident the nominees would continue the progress and respect the tradition of an independent Fed while working to combat inflation, promote a robust labor market, and ensure economic growth benefits all workers.

At that time, she stated that a fully staffed Federal Reserve is crucial to our economic prosperity and urged the Senate to promptly confirm these nominees.

The central bank, with the most significant influence globally, is mandated by Congress to prioritize maximizing employment and controlling inflation through modifications to interest rates. Typically, it increases borrowing costs when it perceives the economy is overheating, and it reduces rates during economic downturns.

The Fed is predicted to increase borrowing costs in 2022 as vaccines are widely available and annualized inflation is above 7%, despite rates slashing to nearly zero during the spring of 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and business closures nationwide.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, investors predict a 71% chance that the Fed will increase the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points at its March meeting, while 29% believe the Fed will make a larger move with a 50-basis-point increase.

Some Democrats have proposed that the Fed may not have enough power to control inflation due to Republicans delaying the confirmation of the president's nominees.

On Wednesday, Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, stated that a full Federal Reserve Board, which hasn't been seen in nearly a decade, is necessary to combat inflation and lower prices for American families.

The next day, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, also expressed the same sentiment about the president's nominees.

The ongoing GOP boycott and Republican Sen. Pat Toomey's demand to halt Raskin's further questioning were also mentioned by Brown, D-Ohio.

In a press release on Thursday, Brown accused Ranking Member Toomey of obstructing the fight against inflation because Ms. Bloom Raskin forgot a phone call from five years ago.

Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody's Analytics, stated on Thursday that he supports all of Biden's nominees, but is confident that the Fed will increase interest rates in the upcoming month.

Zandi, Moody's Analytics' chief economist, stated on Thursday that it is a certainty that there will be rate hikes this year, and the question is whether to increase rates by 50 or 25 basis points for the March meeting.

Zandi stated that while there are numerous reasons to approve the nominees, fighting inflation should not be the top priority.

Michael Feroli, chief economist at JPMorgan, went even further.

The addition of Raskin, Cook, and Jefferson to the Fed's governing body would make the central bank more "dovish," meaning more inclined to favor easier monetary policy and lower rates.

The Board and Committee can function effectively without confirmations," he stated in an email. "Adding three doves won't accelerate the hiking process.

by Thomas Franck

politics