Early unofficial vote count shows Prabowo, Indonesia's Defense Minister, in the lead for the presidential election.

Early unofficial vote count shows Prabowo, Indonesia's Defense Minister, in the lead for the presidential election.
Early unofficial vote count shows Prabowo, Indonesia's Defense Minister, in the lead for the presidential election.
  • According to "quick counts," Indonesia's Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto appears to have an early unofficial lead in the race to become the country's next president as voting closes.
  • In the presidential race, Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta, came in second place, receiving approximately 25% of the votes, while Ganjar Pranowo, the ex-governor of Central Java, placed third, according to the latest polling data.
  • Anies stated in an interview with CNBC in Jakarta that it is premature to make any conclusions, so we must wait until the final results are announced.
Indonesia's presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto gestures after he cast his ballot to vote in the country's presidential and legislative elections at a polling station in Bogor on February 14, 2024. Indonesians began voting for a new president on February 14 with Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto the frontrunner to lead Southeast Asia's biggest economy despite concerns over his human rights record.
Indonesia’s presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto gestures after he cast his ballot to vote in the country’s presidential and legislative elections at a polling station in Bogor on February 14, 2024. Indonesians began voting for a new president on February 14 with Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto the frontrunner to lead Southeast Asia’s biggest economy despite concerns over his human rights record. (Yasuyoshi Chiba | AFP | Getty Images)

According to "quick counts," Indonesia's Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, a former army general, seems to have an early unofficial lead in the race to become the country's next president after voting in the world's third-largest democracy closed on Wednesday.

Prabowo appears to have won a simple majority of ballots cast in Wednesday's elections, with some early independent quick counts indicating that he received nearly 60% of the popular vote, which is significantly higher than what pre-election opinion polls predicted.

In the presidential race, Anies Baswedan, the former governor of Jakarta, came in second place, receiving approximately 25% of the votes, while Ganjar Pranowo, the ex-governor of Central Java, was third, according to the latest polling data from independent sources such as Indikator Politik, Litbang Kompas, and Lembaga Survei Indonesia.

The sixth election in Indonesia since the country transitioned from a military dictatorship under Suharto in the late 1990s was eligible for more than 200 million people to vote. The results of these elections could impact the democratization process in Indonesia and determine if Southeast Asia's largest economy will achieve developed status by 2045.

'We need to ensure the election is free and fair': Indonesian presidential contender Anies Baswedan

The official results of the Indonesian presidential election will not be announced until at least a month from now. The winner will succeed President Joko Widodo, also known as Jokowi, who is not running for re-election after serving the maximum term of 10 years.

Anies stated to CNBC that it is premature to make any conclusions, so we must wait until the final results are announced.

Since a few weeks ago, many reports of possible irregularities have been received, so we must wait, as he told CNBC's Martin Soong, without providing further details.

The KPU did not respond to a CNBC request for comment regarding the Prabowo campaign.

Indonesia’s presidential candidates

Anies is running for president with the support of three parties, including the secular Nasdem Party in the ruling coalition and the conservative Islamic Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Muhaimin Iskandar, commonly known as Cak Imin and leader of the National Awakening Party (PKB), is his vice-presidential running mate.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) nominated Ganjar as its presidential candidate and Mohammad Mahfud Mahmodin as his vice-presidential running mate.

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In Indonesia, only coalitions or individual political parties with at least 20% of the seats in the House of Representatives or a quarter of the popular vote from the previous House of Representatives election can propose presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairings.

Prabowo was nominated by his Gerindra Party, and his vice-presidential running mate is Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of Jokowi and current mayor of Surakarta or Solo, indicating Jokowi's tacit support for Prabowo even though he has not explicitly endorsed any of the three candidates vying to replace him.

Gibran, 36, was included in the ticket after laws were modified to enable candidates under 40 years old to run for president or vice president if they have held regional office.

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Despite Prabowo's commitment to continuing Jokowi's economic policies, it remains uncertain if he will disrupt two of Jokowi's prominent achievements: relocating the national capital from Jakarta to Nusantara and transforming Indonesia into a global center for battery production.

Although the percentages may fluctuate with additional data, the methodologies employed by the three organizations that have published their quick count results are trustworthy, reducing the likelihood that Prabowo received less than a majority.

Prabowo aims to have a ruling coalition with at least 60% - 70% of parliamentary seats to prevent his political agenda from being held hostage by one or two middle-sized parties, making major policy shifts unlikely early in his administration.

Prabowo’s military past

In order to win the election outright, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the national vote and at least 20% of ballots cast in more than half of Indonesia's 38 provinces on Wednesday. If no candidate achieves this, Indonesians will have to choose between the two top performers in a runoff.

On Wednesday, voters had six hours to choose their preferred presidential and vice presidential candidates, as well as their representatives at the national, provincial, and regency levels, and a regional senator for the national parliament.

Anies has vowed to strengthen Indonesia's young democracy during his election campaign, positioning himself in opposition to Prabowo's contentious past.

In 1998, Prabowo, a former Indonesian special forces commander, was dishonorably discharged from the military due to allegations that his troops captured and tortured democracy activists who opposed the dictatorship of Suharto, his father-in-law, during riots that led to the start of democratic reforms.

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In 1983, Prabowo was accused of leading a massacre of hundreds in East Timor.

Since being rebranded as a "cute" grandpa, he has become endearing to young voters through his campaign featuring his awkward dance moves on social media. More than half of Indonesia's electorate was born after 1980, and the minimum voting age is 17.

The story was contributed to by Celestine Francis Xavier and Charmaine Jacob of CNBC.

by Clement Tan

politics