Despite being a reformist, Iran's new president may not bring immediate change.

• Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old former heart surgeon, was viewed as a "token reformist" and a "second-tier candidate" by many analysts, with little chance of winning the presidency.
• One Iran analyst told CNBC that the president-elect "will encounter significant obstacles from established conservatives and external forces, making his presidency a pivotal and unpredictable period for Iran's future."
• In Iran, "reformist" is a relative term because Pezeshkian has no intention to challenge the country's theocratic system.

On Friday, Iran elected its first "reformist" president in 20 years, indicating that many voters rejected hardline conservative policies, despite low voter turnout of 49%, according to official figures.

After the sudden death of former President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May, Masoud Pezeshkian, a former health minister and member of parliament, emerged as the most moderate candidate in the race for the presidency.

Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old token reformist and second-tier candidate, was viewed as having little chance at the presidency due to his lack of name recognition and the highly conservative system he faced.

The election process that led to Pezeshkian's victory has been surprising, marking a significant shift in Iran's political landscape, according to Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, who spoke to CNBC.

Pezeshkian's success in the election, despite the undemocratic nature of the process, reflects a rejection of extremism and a desire for change, as well as an appetite for better relations with the global community.

Despite the Guardian Council's conservative bias, his victory in the polls was unexpected.

Toossi stated that Pezeshkian's presidency is a critical and uncertain chapter for Iran's future due to opposition from hardliners and external pressures.

How much can change, really?

As Iran's last reformist president Mohammad Khatami's health minister from 1997 to 2005, Pezeshkian stated his desire to ease social constraints, such as Iran's strict hijab law, and enhance relations with the West, including possibly resuming nuclear negotiations with world powers.

Pezeshkian, despite being a reformist, continues to support Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and has no plans to challenge the theocratic system of the Islamic Republic.

Nader Itayim, Mideast Gulf editor at Argus Media, stated that Pezeshkian, a reformist, has frequently expressed support for Khamenei's approach and intends to adhere to it.

Khamenei is not a reformist who will attempt to disrupt the status quo, making him a low-risk option. Religious authorities may have viewed him as manageable, according to Itayim.

According to Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, the election of Pezeshkian is merely a superficial alteration.

Ben Taleblu stated that Pezeshkhian presented the regime with the opportunity to make stylistic changes in exchange for significant concessions from the West.

"Tehran is attempting to entice the West with the same illusion of moderation as it faces increasing domestic and international challenges, following the 2022-2023 'Women, Life, Freedom' uprising against the regime."

The death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022 sparked months of protests for women's rights and the downfall of the Iranian regime, as women in Iran are required to wear headscarves improperly.

The protests resulted in severe crackdowns, frequent internet blackouts, thousands of arrests, and several executions by Iranian authorities.

Although Pezeshkian has expressed support for easing penalties related to headscarves, Iran-centric human rights organizations remain pessimistic.

"The Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran stated in a report on Friday that anyone who pledges loyalty to the Iranian constitution, regardless of their political leanings, is ultimately a hardliner by democratic standards. As a result, many Iranians have lost hope in bringing about change through the ballot boxes and are boycotting elections."

"Even if the president's choice leads to minor shifts, it will not bring significant change to Iran's theocratic regime, where the Supreme Leader's authority is greater than that of any president. Iran's theocracy is designed to resist meaningful change, and its core structure will remain unchanged."

What if Trump wins?

No change is expected in the support and funding for regional proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, as the Iranian president has limited control over this matter.

Pezeshkian aims to prioritize sanctions relief for Iran and its struggling economy and has discussed mending relations with the West, particularly regarding the Iranian nuclear deal, which eased economic sanctions in exchange for limitations on the country's nuclear program.

The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that Iran is now closer than ever to acquiring bomb-making capability, while former President Donald Trump, who imposed strict sanctions on Tehran during his previous term, may return to the White House in November. If Trump returns and maintains his stance of imposing sanctions on Iran and abandoning the nuclear deal, then Pezeshkian's objectives will be rendered pointless.

The Iranian election result presents a potential to open up to the West, but it comes at the wrong time given the end of the Biden presidency and the likelihood of a Trump presidency and the GOP hawks having no interest in engagement with Iran, according to Tim Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.

"He stated that Iran, like the Gulf states, would focus on the economy to ease political pressure, but it seems unlikely that, given the U.S. political cycle and events in Gaza, there will be any willingness to engage with "reformers" in Iran."