Cross-strait relations are affected as China's war drills around Taiwan continue on Day 2.

• Beijing warned that the two-day military drills were aimed at punishing the island's new President Lai Ching-te for his "provocative behavior."
• Lai's inaugural speech urged China to stop its threats against Taiwan just days after his swearing-in.
• Beijing views Taiwan as its own territory and regards reunification with the mainland as a historical necessity, according to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The possibility of war remains unlikely despite China's recent military exercises near Taiwan increasing tensions across the strait, according to political observers.

Beijing warned that the two-day drills, which continued on Friday, were aimed at punishing the island's new President Lai Ching-te for his "hostile and provocative actions."

Lai's inaugural speech urged China to stop its threats against Taiwan just days after his swearing-in.

Taiwan's new leader has adopted a more radical approach in his debut speech, with the state news agency Xinhua stating that the drills are legitimate, timely, and necessary to prevent any form of "Taiwan independence."

Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, stated in a post on X that this feels like a prelude to more and bigger military drills to come.

"This serves as a warning to influence global perceptions. The true retribution against Taiwan may still be forthcoming, as it takes time to enact."

Beijing views Taiwan, which is governed democratically, as part of its territory, and Chinese President Xi Jinping has stated that reunification with the mainland is inevitable.

The Joint Sword-2024A exercises, conducted by China's Ministry of National Defense, were a "powerful punishment" for "separatist forces seeking 'independence'."

The drills will concentrate on obtaining complete control of the battlefield and executing precise attacks on critical targets, as stated.

The PLA's Eastern Theater Command carried out sea assaults, land strikes, air defense, and antisubmarine operations in the airspace and waters to the north and south of Taiwan Island.

The coast guard of Taiwan dispatched patrol vessels to monitor Chinese military movements.

'Irrational provocations'

Beijing's stance on Taiwan could become more rigid under Lai's leadership, as political observers point out that the latest escalation sends a clear message.

Eurasia analysts stated that Beijing appears to be shocked by Lai's positive language regarding Taiwanese sovereignty and identity, despite pre-inauguration signals suggesting a more moderate response.

In his speech on Monday, Lai stated that Taiwan's constitution clearly establishes that the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to one another.

He stated that all political parties should stand against "annexation and safeguard sovereignty."

On Tuesday, China's top diplomat Wang Yi criticized Lai, stating that "regardless of the tactics they employ, they cannot hinder China from ultimately achieving complete reunification," according to state media reports.

The Chinese drills were condemned by Taiwan's defense ministry as "irrational provocations" that threaten regional peace and stability.

The ministry stated that the pretext for conducting military exercises in the Taiwan Strait does not promote peace and stability, but rather emphasizes its hegemonic nature.

Eurasia's analysts noted that while PLA drills have not yet matched China's response to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August 2022, they have included unprecedented coast guard patrols around several Taiwan-controlled offshore islands.

The Fujian Coast Guard patrolled up to 2.8 and 3 nautical miles from Wuqiu and Dongyin islands, respectively, for the first time this week.

U.S.-China relations

China has intensified diplomatic, economic, and military pressure on Taiwan as the island strengthens informal ties with the United States under Xi.

During the APEC leaders' summit in November, Taiwan was identified by Xi as the "most important and sensitive" issue in China-U.S. relations, as he conveyed this to U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines.

Teneo Intelligence's managing director, Gabriel Wildau, pointed out that U.S. politics will impact cross-strait relations.

If Republicans gain control of both houses of Congress in the upcoming elections, tensions will increase, regardless of the presidential election results.

As Lai grows more confident in his new role as president, he may become emboldened to depart further from Tsai Ing-wen's cautious positioning and act on his pro-independence instincts, according to Wildau.

Beijing is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of its military deployments in Taiwan, despite the low likelihood of war over the next decade, according to observers.

Eurasia analysts stated that the latest drills indicate that cross-strait relations have entered an "unstable period."

Beijing is unlikely to take any actions that could jeopardize U.S.-China stabilization efforts on the Taiwan issue until after the U.S. election, according to the source.