Concerns intensify in Israel's northern neighbor about Netanyahu's refusal to halt operations in Gaza.

Concerns intensify in Israel's northern neighbor about Netanyahu's refusal to halt operations in Gaza.
Concerns intensify in Israel's northern neighbor about Netanyahu's refusal to halt operations in Gaza.

The expansion of Israeli ground operations in southern Gaza has caused international anxiety that Tehran's proxies may attempt to widen the conflict into a regionwide war.

Although there has been hostile language from all sides since the Hamas attack in October and the subsequent escalation by members of the Iran-led "axis of resistance," many officials in Israel's northern neighbor believe that Iran and its allies do not want a full-scale war. The "axis of resistance" comprises Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraqi Shia militias, and Yemen's Houthis.

In Lebanon, anxiety is centered on one unpredictable factor: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu's political instability resulting from the Gaza crisis and declining popularity at home have caused many to fear that he may escalate the cross-border conflict, leading to a full-blown war that could spill over into Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and potentially harm American naval assets in the Mediterranean Sea.

A dozen diplomats, military chiefs, and leaders of militant organizations in Lebanon are concerned that Netanyahu's personal issues could escalate into a regional crisis.

"The Israeli government must demonstrate their victory in the aftermath of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack," said a Western diplomat stationed in Lebanon, adding that Iran and its allies will likely avoid starting a war with Israel despite their recent posturing.

Since the Oct. 7 attacks, Netanyahu and Israel's top military leaders have faced criticism, with only 27% of Israelis believing that Netanyahu is the best person to run the government, according to a poll in early November.

For weeks, Israeli officials have warned Iran and Hezbollah of war. Last week, Netanyahu reiterated that if Hezbollah makes a mistake, it will destroy Lebanon.

A senior Israeli official stated to NBC News that the Iranian regime is responsible for promoting terror and instability in the Middle East and beyond, either directly or through its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. The international community recognizes Tehran as the world's primary sponsor of terrorism.

In the region, many perceive such language as a sign of weakness rather than strength. Netanyahu's behavior resembles that of a "wounded animal," according to Ali Hamdan, an adviser to Lebanon's Hezbollah-aligned speaker of Parliament. In fact, he may be more dangerous in his weakened state than he was when he was stronger.

Netanyahu is under intense pressure from all directions, with the public outraged over his crisis management and fraud charges that could lead to his imprisonment if he is removed from office.

Abbas Ibrahim, a Lebanese hostage negotiator who led his country's intelligence agency for over a decade until March, stated that Netanyahu needs to take action on a personal level. If the war ends tomorrow, he could be held accountable. If he successfully defeats Hamas and Hezbollah, he could be hailed as a hero at the end of the year, not for the sake of his people, but to protect himself.

One source close to U.S. intelligence on Israel claims that Netanyahu may prolong the Israeli military operation in Gaza to protect his political standing.

No indications have been made that this person or their government are currently planning a major campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to the source.

Before the recent conflict, Netanyahu's judicial overhaul bill, viewed as an attack on Israel's legal system, caused widespread protests and divided the country.

Netanyahu's opponents have accused him of using his proposals to limit the power of a legal system that has charged him with fraud, breach of trust, and accepting bribes in three separate cases. Netanyahu has consistently maintained his innocence.

The prime minister’s unpopularity paints him into a corner.

One concern in Washington and the Middle East is that the definition of an Israeli "win" in Gaza remains unclear, as U.S. and Western officials say Israel lacks a coherent political plan once its military campaign is finished.

The future of Gaza remains uncertain due to Washington's struggle to define it. The Israeli goal of removing Hamas could create a dangerous power vacuum that no Palestinian politician or group can hope to fill.

Despite concerns about Netanyahu and other Iran-backed proxy groups, Hezbollah and other groups have not been avoiding conflict.

After Hamas' terrorist attacks, Hezbollah has been consistently launching rockets and other projectiles into northern Israel, resulting in the evacuation of tens of thousands of Israelis. In response, Israeli retaliatory fire has resulted in the deaths of 100 Hezbollah fighters and at least 18 Lebanese civilians, as well as the displacement of more than 30,000 Lebanese people from their homes.

The conflict between Israel and Lebanon over their border has been limited, adhering to the unwritten rules of engagement established during Israel's 2006 war with Hezbollah.

The "axis of resistance," which is composed of loosely connected Iranian proxies in the region, has been taking an offensive against Israel, the West, and monied Sunni Muslim Arab Gulf kingdoms. The Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, backed by Iran, have fired dozens of projectiles at American bases. Iran-sponsored fighting groups in Syria have targeted American military installations. Additionally, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have been attacking ships in the Red Sea.

According to recent reports from NBC News, two congressional aides and a defense official stated that the U.S. intelligence community believes that Iran is not seeking a direct war with the United States but is instead increasing pressure on Israel and Washington through its proxies.

Western policymakers in Washington believe that Iran is relatively satisfied with the more limited war's outcome so far, as the Hamas attacks seriously undermined diplomacy meant to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Israel is facing an international outcry over its bombardment of Gaza and the plight of Palestinian civilians, which have rallied massive protests, particularly in Western cities.

For the first time, Iran has observed its allies in the axis of resistance engage in coordinated limited combat operations.

If Israel succeeds in completely destroying Hamas, Iran and Hezbollah may take the initial steps towards a full-scale war, which could negatively impact Hezbollah's modest gains, several officials stated.

Ahmed Abdul Hadi, a Hamas representative in Beirut, stated that the red line for Hezbollah would be the complete annihilation of resistance in Gaza.

It is uncertain whether Hamas will stop operating entirely or suffer enormous losses before doing so. Similarly, Hezbollah has not specified a "red line" for when it may resort to full-fledged war.

Hezbollah will know to enter the fight when invited, as stated by Hadi and others.

Ibrahim, the former Lebanese intelligence chief and hostage negotiator, stated that Hezbollah will not allow Israel to eliminate Hamas. He added that it is not Hezbollah who will decide, but rather Hamas, who must seek assistance if needed. Ibrahim remains in contact with Hezbollah, Hamas, and American officials on a near-daily basis.

From Beirut, Matt Bradley and Ziad Jaber provided updates, while Dan De Luce reported from Washington.

by Matt Bradley, Dan De Luce and Ziad Jaber

politics