China may take over global climate leadership from Trump.

• The U.S. could announce its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as soon as early 2025 and complete it by beginning of 2026, with Republicans looking to achieve a red sweep.
• If President-elect Donald Trump steps back from international leadership, experts believe that subnational actors at the state and city level will eagerly take on the role.
• It would still be a "mistake" that gives China a significant advantage in competition.
• Despite Trump's opposition to all climate legislation, Biden's Inflation Reduction Act could be difficult to repeal.

The election of President-elect Donald Trump has cast a shadow of doubt over the world of global climate policy due to his campaign promises to reduce landmark climate legislation and his past record of withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement.

The Paris Agreement, which Trump had pledged to withdraw from again during his second term as president, is a historic commitment by 195 countries and the European Union to decrease greenhouse gas emissions.

With the Republicans holding a majority in Congress, the Trump administration may declare U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in early 2025 and finalize the process by the start of 2026.

BMO Capital Markets analysts predicted that Trump could withdraw from the entire UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which includes the Paris Agreement, last week.

Trump-led American foreign policy, as an isolationist, allows China to take on global leadership on the issue.

Ceding global climate leadership to China "would be a mistake"

Joanna Lewis, an associate professor at Georgetown University and expert in international climate policy, stated that China is aiming to take a more active stance on climate change globally.

It would be a mistake for the United States to completely cede its leadership role on climate change, particularly in the development of low carbon technologies, which has been a competitive area between China and the United States, according to Lewis.

"Unless other countries like the United States become more involved in these industries, the rest of the world will continue to depend on China for these technologies."

The Inflation Reduction Act, aimed at addressing Chinese competition, was proposed by President Joe Biden. Trump has also pledged to eliminate it.

The IRA aims to compete with China in key clean energy industries, not only for use in the US but also for potential export to the rest of the world, according to Lewis.

The law aims to promote clean energy manufacturing in key sectors globally, so that China does not dominate the market.

"If the US relinquishes its leadership role in clean energy technology manufacturing to China, it will further strengthen China's dominance in emerging and developing markets."

Despite the absence of Trump leadership on this issue, Lewis believes that there are ways for the U.S. to remain involved.

In 2017, when Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, there was a rise in subnational involvement at international climate talks, as governors and senators took steps to show American leadership in climate policy and engage in diplomacy.

According to Lewis, if Trump relinquishes his role as international leader, states and other subnational actors will eagerly take his place.

During the first Trump administration, former California Gov. Brown played a significant role in climate diplomacy. He founded the California-China Climate Institute, which organized high-level meetings between the U.S. and China on climate change, including those attended by current California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

The Inflation Reduction Act has "staying power"

Biden's IRA has been subject to Trump's criticism, and solar stocks experienced a decline following the Nov. 5 election due to concerns about Trump's potential repeal of the climate bill, which includes tax incentives for solar energy expansion.

But the IRA might prove tough to dismantle for the incoming Trump administration.

"According to John Podesta, the U.S. special envoy for climate, there is now bipartisan support for clean energy in the United States. He made this statement at the COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan. Additionally, he pointed out that 57% of the new clean energy jobs created since the Inflation Reduction Act passed are located in Congressional districts represented by Republicans."

A group of 18 House Republicans, who faced tough re-election battles in November, wrote to Speaker Mike Johnson, advocating for the preservation of certain tax credits and deductions in the IRA. They argued that a complete repeal would result in a worst-case scenario where taxpayers would have spent billions of dollars without receiving any significant benefits.

In Baku, Podesta stated that the IRA's staying power is the reason he is confident that the US will continue to reduce emissions, benefiting both the country and the world.