Beijing's assistance to Russia in its conflict with Ukraine could harm China's reputation.

• One political analyst warns that China may face "high reputational costs" if it supports Russia in its conflict with Ukraine.
• If China were to bail out Russia, its financial or economic capacity to do so is extremely limited, according to Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the U.S.
• In Rome, Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security advisor, had a seven-hour meeting with Yang Jiechi, China's top foreign policy advisor, on Monday.

One political analyst warns that China may face "high reputational costs" if it supports Russia in its conflict with Ukraine.

Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the U.S., stated that China's capacity to bail out Russia, either financially or economically, is very limited, even if it wanted to do so.

Russia's exposure to the international financial system is mostly in U.S. dollars, not in rubles, while China's exposure is also in U.S. dollars, not in RMB. This could make a slight difference at the margin, but China would pay a high reputational cost for doing that, according to an expert.

In Rome, Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security advisor, had a seven-hour meeting with Yang Jiechi, China's top foreign policy advisor, on Monday.

During the meeting, Sullivan informed Chinese officials that the U.S. is worried about Beijing potentially assisting Russia in evading global sanctions. The visit took place amid rumors that Moscow had requested China to supply military equipment for its conflict in Ukraine, including surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, and drones.

On Monday, Zhao Lijian, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, rejected reports of a Russian request and labeled them as "malicious disinformation."

Zhao advised all parties to exercise restraint, cool the situation down, and work for diplomatic settlement instead of further escalating it during a regular briefing in Beijing.

Russia ‘pariah state’

Daly stated that the U.S., along with Ukraine and its Western allies, have already triumphed in the information battle against Russia.

The world sees Valdimir Putin as the "bad guy," and Moscow is rapidly becoming a "pariah state," according to Daly. He urged China to consider whether it wants to align itself with Russia.

On February 4th, China declared its support for Russia. However, being part of an international club that includes countries like Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela, and Iran is not what most Chinese people aspire to. Circumstances are pushing China in this direction, and there is a reputational risk involved.

The lack of evidence that China provided military aid to Russia will likely raise further questions, said Yun Sun, a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the China Program at the Stimson Center.

She stated on CNBC on Tuesday that there is limited information on the military assistance being discussed, and it is uncertain whether Beijing actually provided the support or merely expressed a willingness to do so.

China’s role could tip balance

If China provides military or economic assistance to Russia, it could result in significant geopolitical consequences, according to political observers.

Eurasia Group stated on Monday that although it has moderate confidence, it believes that China is unlikely to directly assist Russia's invasion to this extent, as it is trying to maintain neutrality in the conflict.

Analysts predict that a crucial factor to monitor in the near future is whether China will assist Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, as requested.

The most surprising turn of events would be China's decision to supply military equipment or deadly weapons to Russia, which would signal Beijing's official support for Moscow in the conflict for the first time, according to the source.

The imposition of US and EU sanctions on this development would result in a long-term geopolitical rift between China and the West, with pressures for more comprehensive economic separation.