Analysts caution that Russia may resort to war and face sanctions if it continues its actions in Ukraine.

Analysts caution that Russia may resort to war and face sanctions if it continues its actions in Ukraine.
Analysts caution that Russia may resort to war and face sanctions if it continues its actions in Ukraine.
  • Defense analysts have stated that Russia is willing to risk "real financial harm" and all-out war to achieve its political objectives over Ukraine.
  • Despite having around 100,000 troops at the border, Moscow has stated that it does not plan to invade neighboring Ukraine, a former Soviet Union territory.
  • On Sunday, Bob Menendez, the head of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, disclosed to CNN that legislators were working on imposing the toughest sanctions ever on Russia.
A serviceman of the Teykovo Missile Formation (54th Guards Missile Division) takes part in combat patrol and anti-sabotage drills involving RS-24 Yars road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile systems.
A serviceman of the Teykovo Missile Formation (54th Guards Missile Division) takes part in combat patrol and anti-sabotage drills involving RS-24 Yars road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile systems. (Vladimir Smirnov | TASS | Getty Images)

Defense analysts have stated that Russia is willing to risk "real financial harm" and all-out war to achieve its political objectives in Ukraine.

Despite having around 100,000 troops at the border, Moscow has stated that it does not plan to invade neighboring Ukraine, a former Soviet Union territory.

Russia is insisting that Ukraine is never allowed to join the NATO military alliance and has stated its desire for the organization to withdraw from its presence in Eastern Europe.

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The U.S. responded to Moscow's demands, repeating previous refusals, and diplomatic talks are expected at a U.N. Security Council meeting Monday.

Earlier this month, the British government asserted that it possessed proof the Kremlin aimed to install a pro-Russian leader in Kyiv. In 2014, Russia seized and annexed Crimea, a Black Sea region in southern Ukraine with a predominantly Russian population.

No Russian government spokesperson was immediately reachable for comment when CNBC contacted them.

More steps before an invasion

According to Samuel Cranny-Evans, a research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, it is likely that there is still room for progress before Russia invades Ukraine.

"Russia has deliberately constructed this situation in such a manner that we will recognize it as an invasion force when it occurs," he stated in a phone call with CNBC.

Russia is taking its second step in the conflict by moving air defense assets, fuel and ammunition convoys, and personnel to the border, as stated by him.

Before Russian troops move onto Ukrainian soil, there are several steps that must be taken, including standoff tactics like cruise missile test launches and cyberwarfare attacks, as well as unrest and assassination in Ukraine, he said.

It is believed by Cranny-Evans that the initial act of war would most likely involve long-range missile attacks on critical military and industrial facilities in Ukraine.

If you persist in not complying with our demands, we possess the capability to attack your way of life," he stated to CNBC. "This isn't about Russian soldiers murdering Ukrainian men and women, but rather about targeting the Ukrainian way of life.

During a press briefing at Chatham House on Friday, Mathieu Boulegue, a research fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program, stated that the Russians were not yet prepared to invade.

We have one of the largest concentrations of force in Europe since World War II, but we're still missing some elements in terms of military logistics to make it fully able and capable of sustaining warfighting operations at the technical operational level.

He claimed that Russia was prepared to take drastic measures to accomplish its political objectives.

"Russia has raised the stakes so high that it's unlikely to back down without getting something in return," he said, as he sent over 100,000 troops and reserves.

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If these steps continue to unfold, it is concerning for the long-term outlook, according to Cranny-Evans.

Russian theory suggests that they would only invade when they were confident that the Ukrainians were already defeated, allowing them to be beaten before Russian tanks cross the border.

Some NATO countries have shown their backing for Ukraine as Russian troops remain stationed near the country's border.

In Parliament last week, Boris Johnson, the U.K. Prime Minister, cautioned that "numerous Russian sons will not return home" if Russia decides to invade Ukraine.

This week, the U.K. will enact legislation to impose economic sanctions on Russian banks, oligarchs, and energy companies, as announced by Liz Truss, Britain's foreign secretary.

On Sunday, Bob Menendez, the head of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, announced that the committee was working on a powerful set of sanctions against Russia to protect Ukraine.

If Russia takes any aggressive action against Ukraine, it will face "massive" economic consequences, according to German ministers.

Risking ‘real financial harm’

If the appropriate sanctions and enforcement measures are implemented, Russia could suffer significant financial damage, according to Cranny-Evans.

If Russia invades, the costs of the operation will continue to rise, even without sanctions.

According to Henry Boyd, a research fellow for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, large-scale military actions have substantial costs, including fuel consumption, ammunition, losses, and replacement losses. However, the current deployment's baseline cost is relatively sustainable, and it does not require a significant increase in the budget to achieve the desired outcome.

The military action would have resulted in significant domestic consequences, including the diversion of a substantial amount of civilian transportation to the military in the past few months.

You've already witnessed the economic consequences of rumors of military action and potential economic sanctions on the stock market," he stated. "Therefore, you've already experienced some level of significant economic cost for the actions taken so far.

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According to Boyd, the finance and resources used in some recent military campaigns, such as the Western-led air campaign in Libya, may not be enough in comparison to what Russia would need to spend in a significant ground invasion.

He cautioned that despite the high cost and potential risks, Russia may still be willing to endure short-term economic pain to maintain what they consider to be the crucial political status quo in their near abroad.

According to Boulegue of Chatham House, if the Kremlin must go to war to achieve their political objectives, regardless of the scale and size, they will do it. However, if they can avoid it, they would because nobody in their right mind in the Kremlin would want more sanctions and to be ostracized even more.

The Kremlin could face additional political costs if war were to be "costly and long" for Russia, and if potential sanctions and economic costs were to spark popular uprisings against the government.

Boulegue stated that they would sign Putin's death in a way.

Andrew Wood, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Program and a former British ambassador to Russia, stated that Putin's actions were driven by a fear of popular uprisings, like the recent unrest in Belarus.

by Chloe Taylor

politics